NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	117		Excitement	12.2 [21]		MVP	Marcus Smart (BOS): +128.1%
Toronto Raptors	116		Comeback	63.9 [21]		LVP	Patrick Patterson (TOR): -24.0%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Marcus Smart	1.28	0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,1.28	0.07	1.23	0.02	9	71%	1.32	2	-0.04	3	33%	-0.04
Evan Turner	0.29	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,0.27,0.27,0.21,0.3,0.3,0.3	-0.03	0.33	0.01	17	53%	0.39	4	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Tyler Zeller	0.21	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.18,0.19,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.21,0.21	0.15	0.07	0.01	10	77%	0.21	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.05
Brandon Bass	0.05	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.02	0.02	-0.00	9	48%	0.05	0	0.00	5	60%	-0.05
Jonas Jerebko	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	3	33%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kelly Olynyk	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.13,-0.01,-0.01	0.04	-0.05	-0.00	10	67%	0.18	3	-0.19	4	100%	0.04
Jae Crowder	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	4	30%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Avery Bradley	-0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.08	-0.02	-0.03	13	27%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jared Sullinger	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.09	-0.02	-0.00	3	0%	-0.05	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Isaiah Thomas	-0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.16,0.13,0.2,0.14,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,-0.18	0.05	-0.22	0.01	19	62%	-0.10	4	-0.09	2	100%	0.05

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
DeMar DeRozan	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.04,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.59,0.72,0.66	0.66	0.08	0.60	0.01	25	61%	0.82	6	-0.15	12	83%	0.11
Lou Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.19,0.1,0.1,0.51	0.51	0.09	0.43	0.01	17	64%	0.65	3	-0.14	8	75%	0.00
Tyler Hansbrough	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.16	0.01	0.03	5	100%	0.17	1	-0.02	8	100%	0.04
James Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.06	0.06	-0.00	4	69%	0.13	0	0.00	5	60%	-0.00
Jonas Valanciunas	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	0.02	0.01	12	44%	0.03	1	-0.03	3	67%	-0.01
Charles Hayes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Terrence Ross	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.13	-0.13	0.01	-0.13	0.02	3	50%	-0.13	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Greivis Vasquez	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	9	44%	-0.02	4	-0.12	0	0%	0.00
Patrick Patterson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24	-0.24	-0.13	-0.11	-0.00	7	0%	-0.22	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	22.3	2.3	29.5	16.4	24.4	2.3	37.5	2.3	24.6	161.6
league avg	24.6	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.6	2.0	17.8	136.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +82.4%

TOR -31.1%

TOR -12.2%

BOS +2.0%

BOS +8.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	TOR	NBA	BOS	TOR	NBA
this game	13.8	15.9	15.1	109.3	108.4	104.2
season	14.3	15.6		103.1	109.1
opponent	15.0	15.4		106.8	103.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
BOS	13.9	11.8	12.4	18.0	13.2	13.8
TOR	16.1	18.2	14.3	14.8	16.7	15.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Isaiah Thomas	51	58	0.99	-0.49	1.49	1.14	-5	6	-11	14.3	13.4	0.86	14.7	17.3	-2.67
Tyler Zeller	50	51	0.81	-0.31	1.12	0.49	11	-10	21	13.8	13.8	-0.00	15.6	16.1	-0.52
Kelly Olynyk	47	51	0.66	-0.16	0.82	0.54	4	-3	7	14.3	13.4	0.85	15.2	16.6	-1.41
Marcus Smart	66	62	0.57	-0.07	0.65	0.37	7	-6	13	13.5	14.3	-0.72	17.3	13.9	3.43
Evan Turner	85	82	0.42	0.08	0.35	0.07	12	-11	23	13.6	14.6	-1.02	16.5	13.9	2.58
Avery Bradley	80	80	0.37	0.13	0.23	0.48	-4	5	-9	13.1	15.9	-2.76	15.0	18.6	-3.56
Jared Sullinger	24	25	0.16	0.34	-0.18	-0.07	8	-7	15	13.5	13.9	-0.47	16.5	15.7	0.76
Jonas Jerebko	17	15	-0.19	0.69	-0.88	0.13	-11	12	-23	18.8	12.9	5.95	16.5	15.8	0.66
Jae Crowder	61	59	-0.26	0.76	-1.02	0.03	-10	11	-21	14.4	13.0	1.40	15.1	16.9	-1.74
Brandon Bass	54	52	-1.03	1.53	-2.57	-0.83	-7	8	-15	12.6	15.1	-2.48	17.4	14.5	2.93

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tyler Hansbrough	74	74	0.40	-0.90	1.30	0.16	8	-9	17	16.0	15.8	0.20	13.4	14.9	-1.53
Greivis Vasquez	70	74	0.15	-0.65	0.79	0.44	-10	9	-19	17.8	12.3	5.46	14.1	13.3	0.75
Lou Williams	71	71	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.51	15	-16	31	15.1	17.5	-2.37	13.8	13.9	-0.10
Patrick Patterson	65	64	-0.19	-0.31	0.13	-0.39	7	-8	15	14.6	17.9	-3.23	14.8	12.3	2.46
Charles Hayes	8	9	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	0.12	-15	14	-29	20.4	15.5	4.84	10.8	14.1	-3.32
DeMar DeRozan	89	89	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.50	2	-3	5	15.3	18.9	-3.66	13.7	14.3	-0.61
Jonas Valanciunas	64	62	-0.45	-0.05	-0.39	-0.36	-3	2	-5	16.8	14.6	2.16	14.2	13.3	0.92
Terrence Ross	65	65	-0.70	0.20	-0.90	-0.70	0	-1	1	14.8	17.7	-2.91	12.5	15.9	-3.39
James Johnson	29	27	-0.88	0.38	-1.26	-0.62	-9	8	-17	17.3	15.4	1.89	15.9	13.1	2.76

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.48,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.63,0.64,0.68,0.7,0.72,0.67,0.56,0.54,0.49,0.49,0.44,0.46,0.54,0.54,0.5,0.46,0.4,0.28,0.22,0.19,0.15,0.22,0.15,0.12,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.21,0.23,0.22,0.19,0.22,0.14,0.29,0.07,0.27,0.5,0.45,0.64,0.55,0.85,0
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 90, TOR 88	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.44,0.54,0.53,0.57,0.61,0.57,0.6,0.6,0.48,0.58,0.6,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.59,0.52,0.48,0.54,0.55,0.54,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.39,0.39,0.36,0.42,0.29,0.16,0.08,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.09,0.11,0.12,0.21,0.29,0.27,0.25,0.29,0.31,0.16,0.54,0.55,0.63,0.57,0.42,0	89.2%
LAL 92, HOU 88	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.5,0.48,0.51,0.49,0.59,0.63,0.55,0.6,0.6,0.57,0.51,0.45,0.45,0.53,0.63,0.63,0.54,0.54,0.44,0.46,0.39,0.42,0.46,0.42,0.31,0.3,0.3,0.29,0.22,0.27,0.24,0.14,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.17,0.23,0.14,0.19,0.27,0.19,0.22,0.15,0.15,0.46,0.62,0.63,0.89,0.42,0	88.5%
NYK 102, UTA 99	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.56,0.53,0.47,0.47,0.53,0.6,0.53,0.58,0.63,0.53,0.58,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.52,0.56,0.46,0.49,0.56,0.54,0.5,0.43,0.34,0.33,0.36,0.36,0.38,0.32,0.3,0.21,0.1,0.13,0.15,0.22,0.12,0.14,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.46,0.69,0.63,0.55,0.58,0	88.5%