NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Houston Rockets	96		Excitement	10.1 [72]		MVP	James Harden (HOU): +13.3%
Toronto Raptors	99		Comeback	3.1 [441]		LVP	Greivis Vasquez (TOR): -23.9%

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
James Harden	0.13	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0.03,0,0,0,0.04,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.07	0.05	-0.01	22	55%	0.22	3	-0.08	12	83%	-0.00
Joey Dorsey	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.04	0.01	-0.00	3	87%	0.07	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Nick Johnson	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.01	0.04	-0.00	3	43%	0.04	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Jason Terry	0.02	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.05	-0.02	0.01	5	80%	0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Clint Capela	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.00	-0.02	0.00	5	62%	0.08	2	-0.11	3	0%	-0.07
Pablo Prigioni	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.00	-0.03	0.00	1	100%	0.02	1	-0.05	1	100%	0.01
Trevor Ariza	-0.07	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.13,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,0.05,-0.07	-0.04	-0.02	0.01	15	44%	0.02	2	-0.09	4	50%	-0.03
Corey Brewer	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.07,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.06	-0.06	-0.00	16	36%	-0.04	1	-0.08	4	25%	-0.05
Josh Smith	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.2,-0.2,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.15	-0.02	-0.04	14	25%	-0.09	2	-0.04	4	50%	-0.02

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
DeMar DeRozan	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.1,-0.08,-0.06,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.02,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.07,0.12,0.01,0.01,0.1,0.08,0.11,0.13	0.13	0.07	0.08	0.02	27	59%	0.33	6	-0.20	17	71%	-0.23
Lou Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.10	0.00	0.00	9	72%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Patrick Patterson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.05	0.04	-0.00	4	70%	0.08	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Amir Johnson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,0.04,0.04,-0.1,-0.1,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.03	0.04	-0.00	7	57%	0.09	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Jonas Valanciunas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.07	-0.04	0.03	9	65%	0.03	1	-0.03	5	100%	0.02
Tyler Hansbrough	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Terrence Ross	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.01	-0.00	6	42%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
James Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	-0.01	-0.03	6	40%	0.02	2	-0.05	3	67%	-0.01
Greivis Vasquez	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24	-0.24	-0.14	-0.11	-0.01	10	15%	-0.19	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.2	1.5	32.3	16.4	24.5	2.5	36.3	141.8
league avg	24.6	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +11.3%

HOU -2.0%

TOR +33.4%

TOR +8.7%

HOU -1.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	HOU	TOR	NBA	HOU	TOR	NBA
this game	13.9	16.4	15.1	101.1	104.2	104.2
season	14.3	15.6		105.6	109.1
opponent	15.0	14.9		106.8	103.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
HOU	13.6	13.0	15.3	13.8	13.9
TOR	16.4	15.3	16.0	18.1	16.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Pablo Prigioni	46	46	0.12	-0.62	0.74	0.00	4	-7	11	13.8	14.0	-0.22	15.9	16.9	-1.03
Clint Capela	41	39	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.12	-4	1	-5	13.7	14.1	-0.32	15.5	17.0	-1.46
Nick Johnson	34	33	-0.00	-0.50	0.49	-0.15	5	-8	13	12.6	14.7	-2.07	15.5	16.9	-1.45
Joey Dorsey	40	41	-0.11	-0.39	0.27	-0.26	5	-8	13	13.9	13.9	0.06	16.9	16.0	0.88
Corey Brewer	63	62	-0.22	-0.28	0.05	-0.25	1	-4	5	13.8	14.2	-0.41	16.7	15.8	0.98
Josh Smith	54	55	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	-0.56	6	-9	15	14.0	13.8	0.15	16.5	16.2	0.35
Jason Terry	49	48	-0.47	-0.03	-0.43	-0.26	-7	4	-11	14.0	13.8	0.22	16.8	16.0	0.75
Trevor Ariza	75	77	-0.68	0.18	-0.85	-0.32	-12	9	-21	14.2	12.8	1.35	16.7	15.1	1.66
James Harden	73	74	-0.75	0.25	-1.01	-0.37	-13	10	-23	14.4	12.3	2.08	16.4	16.5	-0.16

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
DeMar DeRozan	80	80	0.73	-0.23	0.97	0.38	12	-9	21	16.4	16.4	0.00	14.3	12.0	2.28
Amir Johnson	65	64	0.38	0.12	0.25	0.49	-4	7	-11	16.6	16.0	0.63	14.4	12.9	1.50
Terrence Ross	45	45	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.54	-7	10	-17	16.3	16.5	-0.13	14.1	13.7	0.41
Patrick Patterson	54	54	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.19	4	-1	5	17.0	15.6	1.48	13.2	14.8	-1.61
Lou Williams	54	53	0.25	0.25	-0.00	0.31	-2	5	-7	16.1	16.8	-0.63	13.7	14.2	-0.49
Jonas Valanciunas	57	57	0.22	0.28	-0.07	0.04	6	-3	9	15.9	17.1	-1.22	14.5	13.0	1.53
Greivis Vasquez	67	68	0.22	0.28	-0.07	0.22	0	3	-3	16.7	15.6	1.12	13.9	14.0	-0.07
James Johnson	39	39	0.06	0.44	-0.37	-0.11	6	-3	9	16.3	16.5	-0.20	13.3	14.4	-1.12
Tyler Hansbrough	14	15	0.01	0.49	-0.49	0.01	0	3	-3	15.0	16.6	-1.64	12.0	14.3	-2.28

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.4,0.41,0.37,0.34,0.39,0.49,0.47,0.5,0.47,0.4,0.46,0.4,0.31,0.26,0.29,0.31,0.44,0.36,0.36,0.42,0.46,0.43,0.39,0.48,0.55,0.64,0.59,0.65,0.63,0.71,0.56,0.42,0.57,0.48,0.42,0.53,0.36,0.59,0.66,0.39,0.57,0.57,0.73,1
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 76, DET 79	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.47,0.41,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.42,0.37,0.4,0.38,0.42,0.4,0.38,0.32,0.34,0.29,0.31,0.33,0.36,0.33,0.43,0.49,0.39,0.39,0.48,0.52,0.62,0.65,0.7,0.63,0.64,0.54,0.38,0.43,0.42,0.42,0.41,0.54,0.67,0.62,0.54,0.45,0.72,1	92.2%
DEN 101, BOS 106	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.44,0.35,0.38,0.37,0.31,0.29,0.38,0.48,0.47,0.36,0.36,0.33,0.33,0.32,0.3,0.33,0.36,0.31,0.36,0.49,0.46,0.54,0.61,0.61,0.55,0.52,0.41,0.55,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.5,0.48,0.43,0.48,0.47,0.53,0.59,0.54,0.38,0.45,0.68,0.73,1	90.9%
UTA 92, HOU 95	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.42,0.46,0.42,0.38,0.38,0.41,0.43,0.4,0.42,0.43,0.45,0.4,0.42,0.42,0.44,0.41,0.34,0.34,0.33,0.44,0.41,0.37,0.34,0.4,0.45,0.36,0.33,0.42,0.52,0.55,0.59,0.71,0.6,0.46,0.43,0.46,0.52,0.53,0.55,0.71,0.54,0.71,0.54,0.68,0.58,1	90.2%