NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	101		Excitement	8.6 [190]		MVP	Paul Pierce (BOS): +22.0%
Boston Celtics	106		Comeback	2.7 [762]		LVP	Andre Miller (DEN): -23.6%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Carmelo Anthony	0.15	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.21,0.24,0.25,0.22,0.22,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.17,0.24,0.24,0.27,0.31,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.31,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.15	0.24	-0.05	0.04	21	72%	0.23	1	-0.08	8	100%	0.05
Greg Buckner	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.18,0.18,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.02	-0.00	10	59%	0.11	2	-0.07	2	50%	-0.01
Ruben Patterson	0.02	0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.08,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	7	78%	0.16	4	-0.14	4	50%	-0.03
Reggie Evans	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.04
Eduardo Najera	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Camby	-0.02	0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	7	43%	-0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Francisco Elson	-0.03	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	0	50%	0.02	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Earl Boykins	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.00	-0.05	-0.00	6	54%	0.02	1	-0.07	1	100%	0.01
Kenyon Martin	-0.22	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.22,-0.22	-0.07	-0.16	-0.00	6	36%	-0.05	2	-0.17	2	50%	-0.06
Andre Miller	-0.24	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.12,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.09,-0.04,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24	-0.05	-0.19	-0.00	15	51%	0.02	5	-0.25	7	71%	0.01

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Paul Pierce	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.04,0.1,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.22	0.22	0.15	0.09	0.02	23	67%	0.36	3	-0.14	8	62%	-0.00
Tony Allen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.11,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.07	0.10	-0.00	5	83%	0.19	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Wally Szczerbiak	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.05	0.03	0.00	15	56%	0.13	1	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Orien Greene	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.02	0.01	4	75%	0.09	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Gerald Green	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kendrick Perkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	4	58%	0.06	2	-0.08	4	75%	-0.00
Al Jefferson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	0.01	4	43%	-0.04	1	-0.02	6	67%	-0.02
Raef LaFrentz	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	-0.00	4	0%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ryan Gomes	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.02	-0.09	0.00	10	50%	-0.07	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.03
Delonte West	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.22,-0.22	-0.22	-0.03	-0.18	0.01	13	46%	-0.15	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.9	1.7	24.3	15.8	31.1	1.7	32.3	133.8
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +6.7%

DEN -6.8%

BOS +15.2%

BOS +36.0%

DEN -1.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	BOS	NBA	DEN	BOS	NBA
this game	14.0	15.3	15.6	104.1	106.0	104.4
season	14.4	14.8		103.5	103.3
opponent	15.8	15.9		104.8	103.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	11.7	14.3	13.6	16.6	14.0
BOS	16.4	15.1	13.6	16.1	15.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Francisco Elson	37	39	0.20	-0.70	0.89	-0.07	9	-14	23	12.5	14.8	-2.29	15.5	15.1	0.33
Earl Boykins	40	41	-0.01	-0.49	0.47	0.07	-3	-2	-1	16.1	12.4	3.69	14.9	15.5	-0.69
Eduardo Najera	14	15	-0.07	-0.43	0.35	0.10	-6	1	-7	12.6	14.2	-1.54	15.1	15.3	-0.23
Reggie Evans	20	19	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	-0.00	-8	3	-11	15.0	13.7	1.31	14.1	15.5	-1.43
Carmelo Anthony	82	83	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.21	-1	-4	3	13.1	18.9	-5.81	15.3	15.2	0.03
Greg Buckner	48	49	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.12	-6	1	-7	15.3	12.7	2.64	13.7	16.7	-2.99
Marcus Camby	66	70	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.35	-1	-4	3	13.7	14.5	-0.87	15.5	14.7	0.80
Ruben Patterson	56	59	-0.43	-0.07	-0.37	-0.38	-2	-3	1	13.8	14.1	-0.32	16.4	13.6	2.84
Kenyon Martin	52	51	-0.50	0.00	-0.51	-0.36	-5	0	-5	14.1	13.8	0.30	15.6	14.9	0.67
Andre Miller	70	74	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.45	-2	-3	1	13.8	14.3	-0.42	15.3	15.0	0.30

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Raef LaFrentz	44	43	0.71	-0.21	0.92	0.45	9	-4	13	16.1	14.6	1.56	13.1	14.6	-1.51
Paul Pierce	80	76	0.57	-0.07	0.63	0.30	9	-4	13	15.1	15.7	-0.61	13.0	17.6	-4.61
Ryan Gomes	64	61	0.50	0.00	0.49	0.44	2	3	-1	15.5	14.9	0.58	12.8	15.9	-3.11
Wally Szczerbiak	83	80	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.37	1	4	-3	15.6	13.7	1.87	14.1	13.4	0.66
Delonte West	67	65	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.29	3	2	1	15.6	14.6	0.93	12.8	16.3	-3.51
Tony Allen	30	29	0.04	0.46	-0.42	0.01	1	4	-3	14.3	15.7	-1.32	16.4	12.9	3.50
Orien Greene	43	43	-0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.06	-2	7	-9	14.8	15.6	-0.74	15.6	12.7	2.91
Kendrick Perkins	44	42	-0.00	0.50	-0.51	-0.12	4	1	3	14.5	15.8	-1.28	15.6	12.7	2.93
Al Jefferson	45	46	-0.12	0.62	-0.73	0.00	-4	9	-13	15.0	15.5	-0.47	14.8	13.2	1.57

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.44,0.35,0.38,0.37,0.31,0.29,0.38,0.48,0.47,0.36,0.36,0.33,0.33,0.32,0.3,0.33,0.36,0.31,0.36,0.49,0.46,0.54,0.61,0.61,0.55,0.52,0.41,0.55,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.5,0.48,0.43,0.48,0.47,0.53,0.59,0.54,0.38,0.45,0.68,0.73,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIN 103, NYK 107	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.39,0.4,0.36,0.37,0.31,0.34,0.33,0.3,0.34,0.38,0.37,0.36,0.28,0.27,0.31,0.31,0.34,0.34,0.36,0.4,0.36,0.44,0.5,0.48,0.45,0.55,0.45,0.45,0.58,0.55,0.45,0.37,0.33,0.4,0.38,0.43,0.38,0.38,0.37,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.55,0.45,0.69,0.58,1	92.3%
LAC 103, GSW 105	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.38,0.41,0.46,0.44,0.43,0.37,0.33,0.26,0.29,0.34,0.24,0.24,0.29,0.25,0.24,0.25,0.27,0.34,0.42,0.36,0.36,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.58,0.61,0.67,0.53,0.59,0.45,0.52,0.48,0.44,0.38,0.48,0.38,0.42,0.53,0.59,0.6,0.54,0.62,0.54,0.57,0.85,1	91.8%
HOU 96, TOR 99	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.4,0.41,0.37,0.34,0.39,0.49,0.47,0.5,0.47,0.4,0.46,0.4,0.31,0.26,0.29,0.31,0.44,0.36,0.36,0.42,0.46,0.43,0.39,0.48,0.55,0.64,0.59,0.65,0.63,0.71,0.56,0.42,0.57,0.48,0.42,0.53,0.36,0.59,0.66,0.39,0.57,0.57,0.73,1	90.9%