NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Minnesota Timberwolves	103		Excitement	9.0 [109]		MVP	Chris Childs (NYK): +24.2%
New York Knicks	107		Comeback	3.3 [601]		LVP	Tom Gugliotta (MIN): -13.9%

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Stephon Marbury	0.15	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.1,-0.03,-0.04,0.04,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.15	-0.04	0.15	-0.03	15	55%	0.27	3	-0.13	10	80%	0.04
Stanley Roberts	0.14	0,0,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.22,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.06	0.08	-0.00	14	67%	0.18	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.04
Terry Porter	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.13,0.13	-0.01	0.12	-0.02	6	50%	0.13	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tom Hammonds	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.09,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	2	67%	0.00	1	-0.03	8	50%	-0.06
Sam Mitchell	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.06	-0.00	-0.03	6	17%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Cherokee Parks	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	0	0%	0.00	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Garnett	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09	-0.03	-0.05	0.01	14	47%	-0.05	1	-0.03	4	75%	-0.02
Chris Carr	-0.10	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.02	-0.09	-0.00	8	55%	0.06	2	-0.16	4	100%	0.02
DeJuan Wheat	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.07,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.06	-0.07	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	2	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Tom Gugliotta	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0,-0.14	0.01	-0.14	0.01	12	63%	-0.07	3	-0.07	6	83%	0.02

New York Knicks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Childs	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,0.02,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.19,0.24	0.24	0.04	0.20	-0.01	4	78%	0.26	1	-0.02	10	90%	0.13
John Starks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.02,0.07,0.07,0.04,0,0,0,-0.02,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.05,0.15	0.15	-0.04	0.17	-0.02	12	53%	0.26	3	-0.10	6	83%	0.07
Charlie Ward	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.02	0.00	3	67%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Patrick Ewing	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	-0.04	0.00	23	57%	0.05	2	-0.08	14	71%	-0.05
Charles Oakley	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	6	50%	-0.00	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.01
Allan Houston	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.08	-0.00	-0.02	17	45%	0.01	3	-0.08	4	100%	0.05
Chris Dudley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.07	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	0	0%	-0.07	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.07
Buck Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.08	-0.02	-0.03	6	14%	-0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Chris Mills	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.06	-0.09	-0.04	12	46%	-0.05	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	33.4	1.2	28.4	15.6	28.2	2.3	44.4	153.6
league avg	29.9	2.8	36.8	15.6	26.0	2.1	43.0	157.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIN -16.7%

NYK +30.6%

NYK +11.9%

NYK +21.1%

NYK +3.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIN	NYK	NBA	MIN	NYK	NBA
this game	14.2	14.0	15.6	102.0	103.9	102.5
season	14.8	15.7		105.3	100.4
opponent	16.3	15.7		98.6	104.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIN	13.8	14.8	12.9	15.6	14.2
NYK	14.4	15.8	13.3	12.7	14.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Stanley Roberts	47	47	0.08	-0.58	0.67	-0.15	8	-12	20	14.8	13.7	1.10	15.6	12.7	2.82
Cherokee Parks	21	20	-0.01	-0.49	0.47	0.07	-3	-1	-2	15.0	14.0	1.05	13.3	14.2	-0.89
Chris Carr	66	65	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.14	3	-7	10	14.6	13.5	1.12	13.5	14.8	-1.30
DeJuan Wheat	10	13	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	0.00	-6	2	-8	20.3	13.5	6.75	14.8	13.9	0.95
Tom Gugliotta	86	88	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.28	-1	-3	2	14.0	15.3	-1.31	13.4	17.9	-4.58
Stephon Marbury	91	90	-0.33	-0.17	-0.15	-0.38	2	-6	8	13.5	20.3	-6.75	13.9	14.8	-0.95
Sam Mitchell	35	37	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.17	-7	3	-10	13.4	14.6	-1.21	12.3	15.0	-2.69
Kevin Garnett	82	82	-0.44	-0.06	-0.37	-0.47	1	-5	6	14.4	13.6	0.72	14.4	12.5	1.88
Tom Hammonds	32	35	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	-0.15	-10	6	-16	13.8	14.4	-0.55	15.0	13.5	1.44
Terry Porter	35	38	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.25	-7	3	-10	13.5	14.6	-1.12	14.8	13.5	1.30

New York Knicks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Mills	71	69	0.76	-0.26	1.01	0.43	11	-7	18	13.0	16.2	-3.24	14.5	13.5	1.00
Chris Childs	67	65	0.58	-0.08	0.66	0.31	9	-5	14	14.8	12.6	2.17	13.9	14.8	-0.96
Patrick Ewing	90	90	0.54	-0.04	0.57	0.24	10	-6	16	14.0	14.2	-0.24	14.6	10.8	3.82
Charles Oakley	69	71	0.48	0.02	0.47	0.37	4	0	4	14.0	14.1	-0.15	14.4	13.9	0.45
John Starks	53	51	0.41	0.09	0.33	0.35	2	2	0	14.1	14.0	0.12	12.9	15.6	-2.66
Buck Williams	44	40	0.06	0.44	-0.37	0.12	-2	6	-8	15.0	13.3	1.63	13.4	14.7	-1.27
Charlie Ward	36	36	-0.08	0.58	-0.66	0.07	-5	9	-14	12.6	14.8	-2.17	14.8	13.9	0.96
Allan Houston	68	68	-0.11	0.61	-0.72	-0.02	-3	7	-10	14.3	13.4	0.89	15.2	12.1	3.11
Chris Dudley	17	15	-0.14	0.64	-0.79	0.03	-6	10	-16	14.8	13.9	0.89	11.5	14.7	-3.15

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.45,0.39,0.4,0.36,0.37,0.31,0.34,0.33,0.3,0.34,0.38,0.37,0.36,0.28,0.27,0.31,0.31,0.34,0.34,0.36,0.4,0.36,0.44,0.5,0.48,0.45,0.55,0.45,0.45,0.58,0.55,0.45,0.37,0.33,0.4,0.38,0.43,0.38,0.38,0.37,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.55,0.45,0.69,0.58,1
Game		Similarity Score
DEN 101, BOS 106	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.44,0.35,0.38,0.37,0.31,0.29,0.38,0.48,0.47,0.36,0.36,0.33,0.33,0.32,0.3,0.33,0.36,0.31,0.36,0.49,0.46,0.54,0.61,0.61,0.55,0.52,0.41,0.55,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.5,0.48,0.43,0.48,0.47,0.53,0.59,0.54,0.38,0.45,0.68,0.73,1	92.3%
MEM 80, PHX 82	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.44,0.42,0.38,0.34,0.37,0.37,0.36,0.34,0.35,0.32,0.32,0.3,0.27,0.24,0.35,0.31,0.31,0.33,0.43,0.44,0.46,0.45,0.46,0.36,0.55,0.52,0.48,0.41,0.38,0.37,0.4,0.36,0.5,0.43,0.43,0.48,0.42,0.47,0.59,0.46,0.75,0.72,0.76,0.74,1	91.6%
LAC 103, GSW 105	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.38,0.41,0.46,0.44,0.43,0.37,0.33,0.26,0.29,0.34,0.24,0.24,0.29,0.25,0.24,0.25,0.27,0.34,0.42,0.36,0.36,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.58,0.61,0.67,0.53,0.59,0.45,0.52,0.48,0.44,0.38,0.48,0.38,0.42,0.53,0.59,0.6,0.54,0.62,0.54,0.57,0.85,1	91.4%