NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	104		Excitement	8.3 [209]		MVP	Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (DET): +30.1%
Detroit Pistons	108		Comeback	1.4 [583]		LVP	Jonas Valanciunas (TOR): -16.5%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Patrick Patterson	0.24	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.24,0.24	0.10	0.15	0.01	8	68%	0.24	0	0.00	3	100%	0.03
Lou Williams	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.12,0.28,0.28,0.11	0.08	0.03	-0.00	11	70%	0.18	3	-0.07	5	80%	0.03
Amir Johnson	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.01	0.01	5	93%	0.11	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.00
Tyler Hansbrough	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Kyle Lowry	0.02	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.03	-0.00	0.01	4	56%	0.02	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Terrence Ross	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.01	-0.05	0.02	11	41%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Greivis Vasquez	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.11,-0.11	-0.03	-0.09	-0.01	6	58%	-0.03	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
DeMar DeRozan	-0.14	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,0.02,0,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.13,-0.13,-0.14	-0.03	-0.13	-0.02	17	48%	0.04	3	-0.19	12	100%	0.10
Jonas Valanciunas	-0.17	0,0,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.17,-0.17	-0.03	-0.12	0.02	12	46%	-0.07	2	-0.10	2	100%	0.01

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.2,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3	0.30	0.19	0.12	0.00	17	72%	0.30	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Reggie Jackson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.09,0.08,0.11,0.13,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.32,0.3,0.25	0.25	0.15	0.10	-0.00	18	64%	0.25	0	0.00	8	75%	-0.11
Anthony Tolliver	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.11	-0.03	0.02	5	92%	0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Andre Drummond	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	-0.02	0.04	-0.03	21	40%	0.05	0	0.00	10	50%	-0.12
Caron Butler	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	0.00	0.01	4	75%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Joel Anthony	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.00	2	100%	0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Tayshaun Prince	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.09	0.07	-0.02	9	22%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Shawne Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.01	5	20%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Spencer Dinwiddie	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.07	0.01	-0.02	5	40%	0.03	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Jodie Meeks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.15	-0.15	-0.11	-0.03	0.01	7	12%	-0.12	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.3	2.4	26.4	17.4	33.8	0.2	43.1	146.6
league avg	24.6	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +62.4%

TOR -45.6%

DET +0.9%

DET +29.4%

DET +3.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	DET	NBA	TOR	DET	NBA
this game	15.4	17.3	15.1	115.6	125.6	104.2
season	15.6	15.7		109.1	104.0
opponent	15.3	15.0		105.0	106.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	16.6	17.8	14.2	13.3	15.4
DET	14.6	19.2	17.1	18.8	17.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tyler Hansbrough	13	12	0.06	-0.56	0.62	-0.06	4	-8	12	17.7	15.0	2.65	21.3	16.7	4.63
Patrick Patterson	52	51	-0.07	-0.43	0.35	-0.25	6	-10	16	14.2	17.2	-3.00	18.5	15.7	2.85
Terrence Ross	51	49	-0.08	-0.42	0.35	0.13	-7	3	-10	17.9	12.1	5.81	17.8	16.7	1.09
Lou Williams	62	60	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.49	14	-18	32	14.3	18.0	-3.74	18.6	14.4	4.19
Kyle Lowry	22	20	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	0.12	-11	7	-18	15.8	15.3	0.46	14.7	18.2	-3.45
Jonas Valanciunas	54	54	-0.33	-0.17	-0.15	-0.06	-9	5	-14	17.0	13.1	3.90	15.8	20.0	-4.17
DeMar DeRozan	79	75	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.35	-7	3	-10	15.6	14.4	1.21	16.7	21.8	-5.12
Greivis Vasquez	56	54	-0.59	0.09	-0.68	-0.56	-1	-3	2	14.1	17.6	-3.58	17.4	17.2	0.16
Amir Johnson	61	55	-0.66	0.16	-0.83	-0.40	-9	5	-14	14.6	17.1	-2.43	16.9	18.1	-1.17

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Reggie Jackson	62	63	0.72	-0.22	0.94	0.37	12	-8	20	16.2	20.4	-4.26	16.3	13.3	3.09
Andre Drummond	62	64	0.65	-0.15	0.80	0.45	7	-3	10	15.8	21.3	-5.53	15.8	14.5	1.24
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	65	70	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.31	7	-3	10	16.7	19.3	-2.63	15.0	16.7	-1.71
Jodie Meeks	42	45	0.46	0.04	0.41	0.40	2	2	0	17.5	17.2	0.30	14.4	16.5	-2.13
Tayshaun Prince	55	57	0.22	0.28	-0.07	0.42	-7	11	-18	18.7	15.0	3.72	15.0	16.2	-1.25
Anthony Tolliver	46	48	0.21	0.29	-0.08	-0.11	11	-7	18	16.4	18.5	-2.11	16.4	14.4	2.00
Caron Butler	27	28	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.03	5	-1	6	15.0	18.4	-3.37	17.3	14.6	2.71
Shawne Williams	23	22	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	0.10	-6	10	-16	20.3	16.3	4.09	15.6	15.4	0.22
Joel Anthony	24	26	-0.15	0.65	-0.80	-0.06	-3	7	-10	21.3	15.8	5.53	14.5	15.8	-1.24
Spencer Dinwiddie	24	27	-0.22	0.72	-0.94	0.01	-8	12	-20	20.4	16.2	4.26	13.3	16.3	-3.09

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.58,0.52,0.54,0.58,0.51,0.53,0.57,0.57,0.6,0.68,0.7,0.72,0.74,0.71,0.67,0.61,0.58,0.61,0.64,0.66,0.7,0.8,0.82,0.81,0.88,0.91,0.87,0.9,0.94,0.93,0.88,0.89,0.91,0.9,0.87,0.74,0.88,0.87,0.77,0.69,0.59,0.53,0.86,0.63,0.66,0.85,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHX 93, HOU 95	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.58,0.58,0.6,0.55,0.57,0.67,0.69,0.74,0.75,0.72,0.78,0.68,0.67,0.71,0.67,0.68,0.69,0.78,0.74,0.75,0.73,0.73,0.71,0.84,0.85,0.89,0.86,0.87,0.81,0.89,0.87,0.86,0.85,0.87,0.87,0.88,0.76,0.9,0.78,0.76,0.73,0.86,0.64,0.57,0.73,1	92.0%
LAC 100, NJN 101	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.6,0.57,0.55,0.55,0.51,0.56,0.63,0.66,0.7,0.69,0.67,0.71,0.76,0.71,0.73,0.61,0.67,0.7,0.82,0.79,0.82,0.8,0.78,0.88,0.95,0.93,0.94,0.94,0.95,0.83,0.85,0.74,0.82,0.8,0.77,0.79,0.76,0.67,0.62,0.71,0.84,0.83,1	91.8%
MEM 110, CHI 119	0.5,0.49,0.44,0.46,0.48,0.47,0.5,0.55,0.53,0.59,0.6,0.55,0.66,0.66,0.68,0.62,0.64,0.65,0.67,0.68,0.77,0.71,0.69,0.75,0.8,0.84,0.87,0.82,0.8,0.87,0.94,0.94,0.97,0.95,0.94,0.97,0.96,0.96,0.9,0.93,0.89,0.84,0.64,0.65,0.83,0.95,0.79,0.78,0.97,1	91.6%