NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	78		Excitement	6.7 [461]		MVP	Chris Andersen (MIA): +14.8%
Los Angeles Lakers	75		Comeback	1.0 [821]		LVP	Kobe Bryant (LAL): -36.1%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Andersen	0.15	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.10	0.05	0.00	6	86%	0.15	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Hassan Whiteside	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.11	0.05	0.01	9	75%	0.14	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Mario Chalmers	0.11	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,0,-0.01,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.09,0.11	-0.01	0.11	-0.02	16	49%	0.17	2	-0.06	7	71%	0.01
Shawne Williams	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	1	150%	0.06	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	5	40%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Shabazz Napier	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Ennis	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.06	-0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.02	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Norris Cole	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	6	50%	0.02	3	-0.07	2	0%	-0.04
Danny Granger	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.09	-0.02	-0.01	3	25%	-0.04	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Luol Deng	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13	-0.10	-0.03	-0.00	13	31%	-0.07	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Chris Bosh	-0.19	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.14,-0.21,-0.25,-0.29,-0.29,-0.29,-0.29,-0.19,-0.19	-0.21	-0.05	-0.07	17	24%	-0.06	4	-0.13	0	0%	0.00

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ed Davis	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.06	0.06	-0.01	7	86%	0.16	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Ryan Kelly	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.08	0.05	0.00	3	117%	0.13	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jeremy Lin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.11,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	-0.00	0.05	-0.02	7	47%	0.11	1	-0.04	1	100%	0.01
Jordan Hill	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.03	0.01	-0.02	12	43%	0.03	1	-0.03	4	50%	-0.01
Tarik Black	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	-0.01	-0.02	8	41%	-0.01	1	-0.02	6	50%	-0.04
Wesley Johnson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.10	-0.00	-0.01	13	23%	-0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Carlos Boozer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.11	-0.06	-0.02	8	12%	-0.11	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Ronnie Price	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.10	-0.07	-0.01	4	0%	-0.09	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Nick Young	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.11,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.19	-0.10	-0.08	0.01	11	32%	-0.14	2	-0.04	3	100%	0.01
Kobe Bryant	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.21,-0.24,-0.22,-0.27,-0.36	-0.36	-0.15	-0.22	-0.01	19	29%	-0.28	2	-0.08	4	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.9	1.8	29.3	15.8	27.3	2.4	28.6	127.0
league avg	24.6	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +68.8%

LAL -4.4%

LAL -1.8%

LAL -13.0%

MIA +0.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	LAL	NBA	MIA	LAL	NBA
this game	15.8	14.9	15.1	83.0	79.8	104.2
season	16.0	15.5		102.4	101.9
opponent	14.7	15.3		108.9	105.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	14.3	15.0	16.5	17.4	15.8
LAL	14.5	15.6	14.8	14.5	14.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Hassan Whiteside	40	40	0.63	-0.13	0.75	0.45	6	-3	9	17.1	14.8	2.24	14.1	15.4	-1.26
Luol Deng	72	70	0.58	-0.08	0.67	0.47	4	-1	5	16.0	15.2	0.79	14.8	15.1	-0.31
Dwyane Wade	29	29	0.35	0.15	0.20	-0.15	17	-14	31	14.1	16.5	-2.39	17.1	13.8	3.31
Chris Bosh	76	75	0.32	0.18	0.13	0.34	-1	4	-5	16.1	14.4	1.66	14.5	16.1	-1.57
Danny Granger	45	46	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.26	1	2	-1	16.5	15.2	1.30	15.1	14.6	0.42
Mario Chalmers	66	68	0.19	0.31	-0.11	0.14	2	1	1	15.0	17.6	-2.54	15.1	14.2	0.96
Shabazz Napier	23	22	0.19	0.31	-0.13	0.33	-5	8	-13	17.4	15.3	2.18	14.5	15.0	-0.46
Shawne Williams	7	7	0.12	0.38	-0.27	0.03	3	0	3	13.7	16.0	-2.24	13.3	15.0	-1.69
James Ennis	20	22	-0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.06	-2	5	-7	14.5	16.1	-1.64	13.9	15.1	-1.23
Norris Cole	38	37	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	0.17	-7	10	-17	16.6	15.2	1.42	14.2	15.3	-1.14
Chris Andersen	54	54	-0.13	0.63	-0.75	-0.04	-3	6	-9	14.8	17.1	-2.24	15.4	14.1	1.26

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jeremy Lin	34	32	0.16	-0.66	0.83	-0.10	9	-12	21	14.2	15.2	-1.01	15.3	16.0	-0.72
Nick Young	40	39	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.10	3	-6	9	14.7	15.0	-0.31	15.4	16.1	-0.64
Tarik Black	44	42	-0.13	-0.37	0.23	-0.16	1	-4	5	15.0	14.7	0.28	16.0	15.6	0.43
Jordan Hill	44	45	-0.16	-0.34	0.19	-0.01	-5	2	-7	15.1	14.6	0.54	15.4	16.1	-0.66
Carlos Boozer	45	44	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.24	1	-4	5	14.8	14.9	-0.01	16.2	15.5	0.70
Ryan Kelly	43	44	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.41	5	-8	13	14.0	15.6	-1.57	16.2	15.4	0.74
Ed Davis	46	47	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	-0.13	-5	2	-7	15.1	14.6	0.55	14.9	16.7	-1.74
Kobe Bryant	60	60	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.28	-6	3	-9	14.9	14.7	0.23	16.0	15.4	0.59
Wesley Johnson	54	55	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.31	-6	3	-9	15.0	14.7	0.31	16.1	15.4	0.64
Ronnie Price	60	62	-0.66	0.16	-0.83	-0.31	-12	9	-21	15.2	14.2	1.01	16.0	15.3	0.72

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.42,0.36,0.34,0.28,0.24,0.21,0.22,0.27,0.25,0.3,0.28,0.24,0.22,0.21,0.22,0.2,0.27,0.29,0.26,0.21,0.2,0.22,0.26,0.31,0.33,0.42,0.39,0.42,0.32,0.35,0.24,0.14,0.12,0.19,0.22,0.38,0.24,0.37,0.36,0.35,0.22,0.1,0.04,0.22,0.1,0
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 121, TOR 115	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.37,0.42,0.37,0.35,0.26,0.26,0.22,0.17,0.18,0.26,0.17,0.19,0.18,0.16,0.15,0.2,0.25,0.29,0.26,0.23,0.25,0.22,0.24,0.34,0.33,0.36,0.27,0.42,0.48,0.44,0.35,0.33,0.25,0.19,0.3,0.3,0.2,0.27,0.25,0.35,0.28,0.19,0.1,0.02,0.08,0	92.7%
SAS 97, DAL 91	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.4,0.38,0.42,0.38,0.34,0.28,0.28,0.26,0.27,0.3,0.26,0.26,0.18,0.17,0.22,0.24,0.23,0.29,0.22,0.23,0.3,0.37,0.45,0.45,0.42,0.36,0.45,0.42,0.38,0.24,0.21,0.19,0.21,0.22,0.19,0.21,0.17,0.23,0.36,0.24,0.22,0.07,0,0,0,0	92.2%
MIL 102, NYK 96	0.5,0.49,0.42,0.43,0.45,0.38,0.33,0.28,0.32,0.29,0.28,0.24,0.25,0.28,0.24,0.29,0.32,0.38,0.33,0.32,0.28,0.31,0.26,0.27,0.22,0.3,0.34,0.28,0.27,0.33,0.27,0.29,0.28,0.28,0.27,0.29,0.25,0.3,0.3,0.38,0.42,0.42,0.36,0.35,0.27,0.2,0.02,0,0,0	91.9%