NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	97		Excitement	5.6 [731]		MVP	Tony Parker (SAS): +25.9%
Dallas Mavericks	91		Comeback	1.1 [638]		LVP	Rodrigue Beaubois (DAL): -14.4%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tony Parker	0.26	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.26	0.17	0.10	0.01	22	67%	0.28	2	-0.02	5	80%	-0.01
Manu Ginobili	0.17	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.07,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.15,0.13,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.10	0.07	0.00	16	62%	0.21	2	-0.04	8	100%	0.04
Tim Duncan	0.08	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.12,0.1,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.10	0.01	0.03	13	69%	0.16	2	-0.07	6	100%	0.04
Gary Neal	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.01	0.03	-0.01	9	44%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Anderson	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Richard Jefferson	-0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	3	50%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
George Hill	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.09	-0.01	-0.05	9	22%	-0.05	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeJuan Blair	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	-0.01	4	25%	-0.03	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Antonio McDyess	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.07	-0.04	-0.00	3	0%	-0.07	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Matt Bonner	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.08	-0.04	0.00	4	0%	-0.09	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.12	0.01	0.07	16	66%	0.09	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.01
Shawn Marion	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.05	0.01	0.01	8	72%	0.08	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Brian Cardinal	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ian Mahinmi	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tyson Chandler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	0.00	1	75%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
DeShawn Stevenson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.01	-0.01	4	37%	0.01	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Jason Terry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.19,-0.2,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	0.03	0.06	14	56%	0.08	4	-0.12	6	100%	0.03
Jason Kidd	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	7	50%	0.00	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Jose Juan Barea	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	0.01	-0.06	0.03	9	65%	0.01	3	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
Brendan Haywood	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.05	-0.03	0.00	3	25%	-0.05	1	-0.04	2	0%	-0.02
Rodrigue Beaubois	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.09	-0.07	-0.02	11	36%	-0.04	3	-0.11	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.2	2.5	26.0	17.5	24.8	1.8	33.4	133.2
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +14.7%

SAS +10.0%

SAS +2.4%

SAS +19.9%

SAS +3.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	DAL	NBA	SAS	DAL	NBA
this game	16.5	15.0	15.5	106.6	98.9	105.7
season	15.5	15.7		109.3	108.5
opponent	15.7	15.2		103.8	103.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	14.5	16.9	17.1	17.5	16.5
DAL	16.8	14.4	16.4	12.5	15.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tim Duncan	59	59	0.62	-0.12	0.73	0.12	17	-11	28	15.8	17.7	-1.89	16.2	12.9	3.24
Antonio McDyess	55	57	0.58	-0.08	0.67	0.26	11	-5	16	16.2	16.9	-0.70	15.5	14.1	1.41
Manu Ginobili	61	64	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.29	5	1	4	16.6	16.3	0.29	15.4	14.1	1.22
Tony Parker	76	76	0.43	0.07	0.37	0.29	5	1	4	15.9	19.4	-3.48	14.8	15.8	-1.00
George Hill	50	52	0.30	0.20	0.11	0.13	6	0	6	17.2	15.6	1.65	14.9	15.1	-0.24
Gary Neal	56	56	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.26	-1	7	-8	16.7	16.2	0.43	13.1	18.0	-4.95
Richard Jefferson	37	35	0.09	0.41	-0.31	0.18	-3	9	-12	15.9	16.9	-0.92	16.1	14.3	1.77
James Anderson	0	1	0.01	0.49	-0.49	0.01	0	6	-6	0.0	16.5	-16.49	3.0	15.1	-12.12
Matt Bonner	36	34	-0.09	0.59	-0.68	0.06	-5	11	-16	16.9	16.2	0.70	14.4	15.3	-0.87
DeJuan Blair	25	26	-0.12	0.62	-0.73	0.03	-5	11	-16	18.5	15.7	2.79	14.8	15.0	-0.20

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ian Mahinmi	10	9	0.04	-0.54	0.58	0.04	0	-6	6	14.2	15.1	-0.89	17.0	16.4	0.56
Shawn Marion	26	26	0.03	-0.53	0.56	0.00	1	-7	8	14.4	15.2	-0.79	16.6	16.5	0.12
Brian Cardinal	8	8	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.05	0	-6	6	16.4	14.9	1.52	16.6	16.5	0.14
Rodrigue Beaubois	59	57	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.15	3	-9	12	14.5	15.8	-1.25	15.3	18.5	-3.25
DeShawn Stevenson	25	24	-0.11	-0.39	0.27	0.03	-5	-1	-4	18.1	13.8	4.24	15.0	17.0	-1.97
Brendan Haywood	37	34	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	0.00	-7	1	-8	15.2	14.8	0.43	15.5	17.1	-1.54
Tyson Chandler	38	41	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	-0.19	-5	-1	-4	16.7	13.8	2.84	17.5	15.7	1.76
Jose Juan Barea	48	47	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	-0.39	0	-6	6	14.1	15.9	-1.81	18.0	14.9	3.16
Jason Terry	67	67	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	-0.36	-1	-5	4	13.8	18.1	-4.24	17.0	15.0	1.97
Jason Kidd	71	72	-0.50	0.00	-0.51	-0.27	-8	2	-10	14.9	15.3	-0.45	15.8	19.0	-3.17
Dirk Nowitzki	71	70	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.30	-8	2	-10	15.2	14.3	0.85	16.9	15.0	1.88

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.4,0.38,0.42,0.38,0.34,0.28,0.28,0.26,0.27,0.3,0.26,0.26,0.18,0.17,0.22,0.24,0.23,0.29,0.22,0.23,0.3,0.37,0.45,0.45,0.42,0.36,0.45,0.42,0.38,0.24,0.21,0.19,0.21,0.22,0.19,0.21,0.17,0.23,0.36,0.24,0.22,0.07,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
BOS 102, DEN 94	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.47,0.48,0.53,0.41,0.39,0.35,0.33,0.35,0.3,0.32,0.28,0.29,0.27,0.29,0.33,0.28,0.26,0.29,0.31,0.23,0.27,0.37,0.29,0.34,0.36,0.39,0.42,0.32,0.35,0.34,0.27,0.23,0.18,0.19,0.18,0.12,0.33,0.42,0.36,0.24,0.27,0.14,0.07,0.06,0,0	92.9%
CHH 94, PHI 85	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.48,0.38,0.35,0.35,0.33,0.32,0.28,0.24,0.23,0.19,0.16,0.17,0.13,0.19,0.19,0.26,0.21,0.24,0.23,0.27,0.36,0.49,0.48,0.37,0.42,0.43,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.41,0.31,0.3,0.29,0.15,0.08,0.18,0.28,0.32,0.36,0.2,0.22,0.31,0.15,0.1,0.01,0	92.4%
CHI 102, DAL 98	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.4,0.39,0.37,0.38,0.37,0.35,0.33,0.33,0.32,0.32,0.34,0.38,0.38,0.35,0.33,0.28,0.27,0.29,0.31,0.31,0.41,0.46,0.4,0.42,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.38,0.28,0.28,0.37,0.26,0.28,0.3,0.22,0.34,0.27,0.19,0.26,0.19,0.1,0.04,0.07,0.03,0.03,0	92.3%