NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	102		Excitement	6.9 [434]		MVP	Danny Fortson (BOS): +7.5%
Denver Nuggets	94		Comeback	1.1 [389]		LVP	Nick Van Exel (DEN): -24.4%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Danny Fortson	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.06	0.01	0.00	4	89%	0.08	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.02
Paul Pierce	0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.03,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.04	0.02	0.01	11	62%	0.06	0	0.00	12	83%	0.02
Dana Barros	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.03	0.02	0.00	6	58%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Battie	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.00	5	60%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kenny Anderson	0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01	-0.02	0.03	-0.00	8	58%	0.04	2	-0.03	8	100%	0.03
Doug Overton	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Calbert Cheaney	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	3	37%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Adrian Griffin	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.01	3	44%	-0.02	1	-0.02	3	67%	0.00
Antoine Walker	-0.05	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05	-0.12	0.04	-0.03	22	46%	-0.00	3	-0.05	13	62%	-0.02
Vitaly Potapenko	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09	-0.06	-0.02	0.01	7	29%	-0.06	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Eric Williams	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.08	-0.05	0.01	9	37%	-0.10	1	-0.04	6	33%	-0.06

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Keon Clark	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.01	0.04	0.00	11	56%	0.05	0	0.00	10	60%	-0.04
James Posey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	-0.00	0.01	7	62%	0.01	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Ryan Bowen	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bryant Stith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	0	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Chris Herren	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Raef LaFrentz	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	0.00	-0.06	-0.00	14	50%	-0.06	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.03
George McCloud	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	0.00	8	58%	0.02	4	-0.09	3	100%	0.03
Ron Mercer	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.03	-0.04	0.02	14	51%	-0.04	1	-0.05	11	91%	0.02
Roy Rogers	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.06	-0.04	0.00	1	17%	-0.10	0	0.00	4	25%	-0.07
Antonio McDyess	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.2,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22	-0.23	-0.15	-0.08	-0.01	8	46%	-0.10	5	-0.12	8	37%	-0.08
Nick Van Exel	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.23,-0.23,-0.24,-0.24	-0.24	-0.17	-0.08	-0.00	13	19%	-0.18	2	-0.06	1	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.5	2.8	27.0	15.4	31.3	2.7	40.5	145.2
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +36.8%

BOS +10.3%

DEN -10.6%

BOS +19.0%

DEN -5.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	DEN	NBA	BOS	DEN	NBA
this game	14.5	13.9	15.2	100.0	93.1	101.7
season	14.7	14.8		102.4	101.5
opponent	15.0	15.1		103.7	103.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	12.3	16.4	14.4	15.1	14.5
DEN	14.9	14.2	14.4	12.0	13.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Paul Pierce	77	78	0.68	-0.18	0.86	0.27	14	-6	20	14.7	14.0	0.70	14.6	11.6	2.94
Kenny Anderson	70	71	0.63	-0.13	0.77	0.25	13	-5	18	14.2	15.1	-0.88	14.1	13.4	0.64
Adrian Griffin	48	48	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.22	11	-3	14	14.1	14.9	-0.77	13.9	13.9	-0.05
Vitaly Potapenko	37	38	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.20	10	-2	12	13.9	14.8	-0.85	13.7	14.0	-0.32
Antoine Walker	89	89	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.21	8	0	8	14.6	14.0	0.56	13.9	13.5	0.43
Danny Fortson	23	22	0.16	0.34	-0.17	0.10	2	6	-4	15.7	14.1	1.61	13.2	14.1	-0.84
Eric Williams	51	49	-0.00	0.50	-0.51	0.09	-3	11	-14	14.6	14.3	0.31	13.3	14.4	-1.12
Doug Overton	1	1	-0.02	0.52	-0.55	-0.02	0	8	-8	20.0	14.4	5.56	0.0	14.0	-14.02
Tony Battie	43	42	-0.12	0.62	-0.73	-0.03	-3	11	-14	14.3	14.6	-0.24	14.4	13.5	0.94
Dana Barros	38	34	-0.12	0.62	-0.74	-0.03	-3	11	-14	14.5	14.5	0.02	13.6	14.0	-0.35
Calbert Cheaney	33	33	-0.18	0.68	-0.87	0.08	-9	17	-26	14.6	14.4	0.13	13.3	14.2	-0.90

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bryant Stith	20	21	0.02	-0.52	0.53	-0.04	2	-10	12	14.9	13.6	1.27	14.8	14.4	0.34
James Posey	48	47	-0.05	-0.45	0.41	-0.05	0	-8	8	13.8	13.9	-0.13	13.7	15.1	-1.38
Keon Clark	52	51	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.10	0	-8	8	14.7	13.0	1.67	15.2	13.7	1.49
Chris Herren	21	20	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.04	-3	-5	2	16.0	13.3	2.67	13.6	14.7	-1.11
Ryan Bowen	4	4	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	0.01	-5	-3	-2	12.5	13.9	-1.44	9.5	14.7	-5.19
Roy Rogers	10	10	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.04	-4	-4	0	12.0	14.1	-2.09	13.1	14.6	-1.54
George McCloud	49	51	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	-0.23	-3	-5	2	14.1	13.7	0.35	15.6	13.4	2.16
Antonio McDyess	62	63	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	-0.16	-7	-1	-6	13.6	14.3	-0.74	13.8	15.6	-1.86
Nick Van Exel	80	82	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.22	-5	-3	-2	13.3	16.0	-2.67	14.7	13.6	1.11
Raef LaFrentz	78	80	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.23	-5	-3	-2	13.8	14.1	-0.32	14.7	13.5	1.20
Ron Mercer	81	81	-0.52	0.02	-0.53	-0.22	-10	2	-12	13.6	14.9	-1.27	14.4	14.8	-0.34

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.47,0.48,0.53,0.41,0.39,0.35,0.33,0.35,0.3,0.32,0.28,0.29,0.27,0.29,0.33,0.28,0.26,0.29,0.31,0.23,0.27,0.37,0.29,0.34,0.36,0.39,0.42,0.32,0.35,0.34,0.27,0.23,0.18,0.19,0.18,0.12,0.33,0.42,0.36,0.24,0.27,0.14,0.07,0.06,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 111, ORL 105	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.52,0.47,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.37,0.37,0.4,0.35,0.32,0.3,0.31,0.25,0.31,0.32,0.34,0.36,0.33,0.36,0.27,0.33,0.31,0.32,0.31,0.24,0.3,0.39,0.35,0.38,0.34,0.26,0.15,0.15,0.19,0.38,0.42,0.32,0.31,0.29,0.22,0.11,0.11,0.01,0,0	93.3%
IND 105, MIL 101	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.45,0.48,0.38,0.4,0.36,0.37,0.37,0.33,0.38,0.34,0.32,0.29,0.31,0.29,0.37,0.32,0.25,0.27,0.24,0.21,0.3,0.3,0.21,0.28,0.2,0.36,0.33,0.32,0.38,0.31,0.34,0.33,0.22,0.19,0.26,0.29,0.28,0.19,0.36,0.35,0.22,0.19,0.02,0.02,0,0	93.3%
LAL 97, UTA 89	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.51,0.43,0.4,0.45,0.45,0.41,0.43,0.42,0.38,0.35,0.3,0.26,0.23,0.27,0.22,0.24,0.27,0.34,0.33,0.36,0.44,0.5,0.43,0.4,0.31,0.37,0.36,0.26,0.29,0.28,0.26,0.23,0.21,0.15,0.18,0.29,0.33,0.32,0.36,0.29,0.27,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.05,0	93.2%