NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	85		Excitement	4.8 [849]		MVP	Kendall Marshall (MIL): +14.6%
Milwaukee Bucks	109		Comeback	2.9 [434]		LVP	Chris Bosh (MIA): -14.4%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Justin Hamilton	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.04	0.02	0.00	1	100%	0.06	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Danny Granger	0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	-0.01	0.01	-0.05	4	54%	0.08	2	-0.03	5	20%	0.00
James Ennis	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.01	-0.01	4	58%	0.04	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.03
Dwyane Wade	0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.05	-0.00	0.03	18	61%	0.10	4	-0.08	10	80%	0.02
Shabazz Napier	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0.06,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.01	0.00	5	60%	0.04	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Shawne Williams	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	3	33%	-0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Josh McRoberts	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.03	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Mario Chalmers	-0.08	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	-0.02	-0.01	9	41%	-0.04	3	-0.05	4	100%	0.01
Chris Bosh	-0.14	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.11	-0.03	0.01	23	43%	-0.02	5	-0.13	3	67%	-0.01

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kendall Marshall	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.14	0.02	0.01	8	111%	0.18	4	-0.03	2	100%	0.02
Jerryd Bayless	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.01,0.05,0.09,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.04	0.08	-0.00	5	71%	0.17	2	-0.05	7	100%	0.06
Khris Middleton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.07	0.02	-0.03	9	78%	0.12	2	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jared Dudley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.05	0.01	-0.01	5	67%	0.07	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Giannis Antetokounmpo	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.02	0.02	8	52%	0.06	1	-0.04	11	73%	-0.02
Larry Sanders	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.02	0.04	-0.01	7	43%	0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Nate Wolters	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jabari Parker	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.03	-0.04	0.02	9	70%	0.08	3	-0.12	2	100%	0.01
O.J. Mayo	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	5	40%	-0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Zaza Pachulia	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.07	-0.01	-0.00	2	100%	0.01	5	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Knight	0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.06	-0.01	0.03	11	54%	0.01	5	-0.11	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.6	2.7	28.3	14.8	28.5	1.8	30.4	133.2
league avg	24.6	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +29.6%

MIL +15.2%

MIL +16.2%

MIA -13.4%

MIL +2.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	MIL	NBA	MIA	MIL	NBA
this game	15.8	14.7	15.1	90.4	114.7	104.2
season	16.0	14.5		102.4	100.5
opponent	15.7	15.3		101.0	105.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	14.1	16.5	17.9	15.0	15.8
MIL	13.6	13.5	17.2	15.0	14.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Josh McRoberts	42	44	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	0.01	-3	-21	18	16.5	15.2	1.26	14.5	14.9	-0.42
Shawne Williams	26	26	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	0.28	-14	-10	-4	15.6	15.9	-0.28	15.1	14.6	0.51
Danny Granger	54	56	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	0.19	-11	-13	2	15.1	16.6	-1.52	14.1	15.5	-1.41
Justin Hamilton	40	37	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	0.15	-11	-13	2	15.7	15.9	-0.18	16.2	13.7	2.47
Dwyane Wade	65	68	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	0.11	-10	-14	4	15.9	15.6	0.33	14.6	15.0	-0.41
Shabazz Napier	46	45	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	-0.08	-7	-17	10	16.5	15.1	1.33	16.1	13.5	2.59
James Ennis	47	45	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	0.18	-20	-4	-16	16.3	15.3	0.96	15.4	14.1	1.28
Mario Chalmers	73	74	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	0.17	-24	0	-24	15.3	17.5	-2.25	13.8	17.8	-3.92
Chris Bosh	77	80	-0.58	0.08	-0.66	0.00	-20	-4	-16	15.7	16.3	-0.63	14.2	17.5	-3.36

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jerryd Bayless	57	55	0.56	-0.06	0.62	-0.02	20	4	16	15.4	13.6	1.83	15.9	15.7	0.19
Larry Sanders	32	34	0.50	0.00	0.49	0.06	15	9	6	15.8	14.2	1.62	16.5	15.4	1.13
Jared Dudley	41	42	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.03	15	9	6	15.2	14.3	0.90	16.4	15.3	1.09
Kendall Marshall	48	48	0.39	0.11	0.27	-0.08	16	8	8	15.0	14.4	0.51	15.6	16.0	-0.44
Khris Middleton	47	47	0.37	0.13	0.23	-0.34	24	0	24	14.2	15.2	-1.02	15.6	15.9	-0.32
Giannis Antetokounmpo	64	62	0.26	0.24	0.01	-0.04	10	14	-4	14.7	14.7	0.04	15.3	16.7	-1.38
Jabari Parker	59	57	0.12	0.38	-0.27	-0.29	14	10	4	14.2	15.5	-1.32	15.5	16.2	-0.72
Brandon Knight	45	45	0.11	0.39	-0.29	-0.25	12	12	0	13.3	16.0	-2.73	15.2	16.3	-1.11
Nate Wolters	9	10	-0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.03	-1	25	-26	15.7	14.6	1.06	18.2	15.5	2.71
O.J. Mayo	25	24	-0.05	0.55	-0.61	0.06	-4	28	-32	14.6	14.7	-0.14	16.9	15.4	1.53
Zaza Pachulia	48	46	-0.21	0.71	-0.91	-0.18	-1	25	-26	14.7	14.7	0.09	15.4	16.1	-0.71

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.57,0.52,0.54,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.43,0.42,0.38,0.37,0.28,0.31,0.38,0.38,0.42,0.35,0.36,0.49,0.48,0.58,0.56,0.58,0.56,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.61,0.62,0.59,0.59,0.44,0.6,0.72,0.85,0.85,0.93,0.96,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 94, IND 111	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.47,0.45,0.41,0.41,0.43,0.49,0.42,0.36,0.37,0.36,0.34,0.4,0.4,0.46,0.44,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.56,0.54,0.55,0.57,0.55,0.58,0.55,0.62,0.65,0.59,0.63,0.56,0.56,0.81,0.87,0.93,0.95,0.96,0.92,0.91,0.98,1,1,1,1,1	94.1%
TOR 84, IND 102	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.46,0.48,0.41,0.41,0.37,0.35,0.38,0.4,0.37,0.36,0.38,0.4,0.42,0.51,0.42,0.39,0.41,0.36,0.49,0.56,0.5,0.49,0.57,0.61,0.67,0.71,0.62,0.59,0.59,0.59,0.74,0.71,0.81,0.87,0.88,0.89,0.97,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	93.7%
POR 83, HOU 95	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.56,0.55,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.4,0.36,0.35,0.38,0.4,0.36,0.4,0.37,0.35,0.42,0.39,0.42,0.44,0.46,0.5,0.55,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.61,0.71,0.65,0.66,0.66,0.63,0.79,0.78,0.85,0.9,0.94,0.98,0.98,0.97,1,1,1,1,1,1	93.7%