NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

New Orleans Pelicans	80		Excitement	7.2 [376]		MVP	Paul Pierce (WAS): +22.6%
Washington Wizards	83		Comeback	1.8 [630]		LVP	Tyreke Evans (NOP): -30.5%

New Orleans Pelicans
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Anthony Davis	0.22	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.14,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.22	0.10	0.14	0.02	18	67%	0.33	4	-0.11	9	89%	0.04
John Salmons	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.07	0.03	0.00	6	75%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luke Babbitt	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.01	0.04	-0.00	3	50%	0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Alexis Ajinca	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Austin Rivers	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	-0.00	5	29%	-0.04	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.03
Omer Asik	-0.14	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.10	-0.04	-0.00	4	10%	-0.07	2	-0.07	2	50%	-0.01
Ryan Anderson	-0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.1,-0.16,-0.17,-0.17	-0.01	-0.16	-0.00	11	42%	-0.17	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.05
Jrue Holiday	-0.26	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.17,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26	-0.06	-0.19	0.01	18	47%	-0.13	4	-0.13	0	0%	0.00
Tyreke Evans	-0.31	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.24,-0.31	-0.18	-0.15	-0.03	15	13%	-0.27	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Paul Pierce	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.23,0.23,0.23	0.23	0.01	0.20	-0.01	6	71%	0.31	3	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
Marcin Gortat	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.18,0.18,0.19,0.19,0.22,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.15	0.15	0.09	0.05	-0.01	20	60%	0.18	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Kris Humphries	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.02	-0.01	6	57%	0.06	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Otto Porter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.01	0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Rasual Butler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.00	5	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andre Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.01	-0.00	6	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Seraphin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	100%	0.02	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Bradley Beal	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	11	50%	0.01	2	-0.06	2	0%	-0.07
Drew Gooden	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	0.00	-0.01	5	33%	-0.01	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
John Wall	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.15,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.11	-0.07	-0.01	14	37%	-0.07	3	-0.10	2	50%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.8	2.5	25.4	15.5	24.3	1.4	28.5	120.4
league avg	24.6	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

WAS +80.2%

NOP -9.9%

NOP -23.2%

WAS +4.3%

NOP -1.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	NOP	WAS	NBA	NOP	WAS	NBA
this game	17.5	15.8	15.1	93.0	95.4	104.2
season	15.8	15.1		106.3	102.9
opponent	15.3	15.2		101.7	106.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
NOP	16.7	18.0	17.6	17.8	17.5
WAS	15.3	15.5	13.7	19.1	15.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

New Orleans Pelicans
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Alexis Ajinca	6	5	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.00	0	-3	3	18.7	17.4	1.25	16.2	15.8	0.42
Omer Asik	50	53	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.10	0	-3	3	17.2	17.9	-0.67	16.1	15.4	0.64
Luke Babbitt	30	30	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.30	5	-8	13	18.4	17.0	1.33	16.9	15.2	1.67
Austin Rivers	54	53	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	-0.14	-4	1	-5	17.9	16.7	1.19	15.3	16.5	-1.19
Jrue Holiday	61	62	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.28	-2	-1	-1	17.3	18.0	-0.65	16.0	15.2	0.79
John Salmons	50	53	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.27	-3	0	-3	16.9	18.4	-1.48	15.8	15.8	0.07
Tyreke Evans	63	63	-0.38	-0.12	-0.27	-0.24	-5	2	-7	17.4	17.8	-0.45	15.4	16.8	-1.36
Ryan Anderson	42	43	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.41	0	-3	3	17.6	17.4	0.19	16.7	15.0	1.72
Anthony Davis	74	73	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.32	-6	3	-9	17.5	17.2	0.29	15.1	19.6	-4.49

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Marcin Gortat	76	75	0.56	-0.06	0.63	0.39	6	-3	9	15.6	17.2	-1.58	17.1	20.3	-3.18
John Wall	61	62	0.45	0.05	0.39	0.27	6	-3	9	15.3	17.1	-1.81	17.4	17.8	-0.46
Bradley Beal	64	65	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.31	4	-1	5	15.2	17.5	-2.28	17.2	18.3	-1.04
Rasual Butler	39	36	0.34	0.16	0.19	0.37	-1	4	-5	17.5	14.4	3.14	17.8	17.3	0.53
Paul Pierce	53	54	0.31	0.19	0.13	0.22	3	0	3	14.7	17.6	-2.93	17.4	17.7	-0.25
Drew Gooden	30	29	0.19	0.31	-0.11	0.14	2	1	1	16.5	15.5	1.01	17.5	17.5	-0.03
Kris Humphries	48	48	0.17	0.33	-0.17	0.05	4	-1	5	15.3	16.4	-1.14	17.3	17.7	-0.38
Andre Miller	26	24	0.05	0.45	-0.39	0.14	-3	6	-9	17.1	15.3	1.81	17.8	17.4	0.46
Otto Porter	27	26	0.05	0.45	-0.39	0.14	-3	6	-9	17.1	15.2	1.95	18.2	17.2	1.05
Kevin Seraphin	11	11	-0.06	0.56	-0.63	0.02	-3	6	-9	17.2	15.6	1.58	20.3	17.1	3.18

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.55,0.63,0.61,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.58,0.63,0.58,0.58,0.55,0.56,0.58,0.53,0.58,0.56,0.54,0.58,0.54,0.58,0.59,0.57,0.58,0.58,0.64,0.68,0.68,0.69,0.66,0.7,0.71,0.81,0.81,0.85,0.89,0.85,0.83,0.76,0.82,0.53,0.46,0.86,0.92,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 92, ORL 96	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.58,0.59,0.58,0.57,0.57,0.61,0.57,0.55,0.58,0.6,0.62,0.6,0.64,0.67,0.6,0.63,0.61,0.54,0.56,0.64,0.56,0.54,0.62,0.69,0.7,0.73,0.76,0.74,0.68,0.59,0.71,0.7,0.68,0.74,0.85,0.82,0.84,0.81,0.74,0.8,0.73,0.47,0.54,0.68,0.92,1	93.3%
WAS 95, SEA 97	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.59,0.56,0.59,0.59,0.61,0.63,0.57,0.64,0.57,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.58,0.56,0.52,0.48,0.49,0.46,0.54,0.5,0.54,0.55,0.64,0.55,0.67,0.74,0.72,0.78,0.66,0.77,0.79,0.78,0.87,0.82,0.86,0.81,0.89,0.88,0.83,0.62,0.77,0.85,0.84,1	92.8%
CHA 97, WAS 107	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.63,0.57,0.53,0.47,0.53,0.55,0.52,0.58,0.54,0.57,0.6,0.6,0.56,0.63,0.64,0.69,0.66,0.64,0.63,0.54,0.65,0.75,0.73,0.76,0.74,0.68,0.72,0.63,0.63,0.79,0.85,0.78,0.82,0.9,0.77,0.69,0.71,0.87,0.68,0.64,0.9,0.98,1	92.6%