NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	92		Excitement	7.7 [278]		MVP	Vin Baker (MIL): +24.8%
Orlando Magic	96		Comeback	1.7 [688]		LVP	Glenn Robinson (MIL): -36.6%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Vin Baker	0.25	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,0.07,0.13,0.07,0.07,0.16,0.25	0.03	0.20	-0.02	23	58%	0.31	3	-0.06	6	100%	0.06
Sherman Douglas	0.03	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	0.00	6	71%	0.06	1	-0.03	2	0%	-0.04
Ray Allen	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02	0.02	-0.02	-0.02	10	54%	0.02	0	0.00	4	100%	0.05
Joe Wolf	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	2	40%	-0.01	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Chucky Brown	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Johnny Newman	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.01	-0.04	-0.00	5	50%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Elliot Perry	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,-0.05	0.02	-0.07	-0.01	7	56%	-0.05	0	0.00	4	75%	0.01
Armen Gilliam	-0.10	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.01	-0.01	6	31%	-0.02	3	-0.07	1	0%	-0.01
Glenn Robinson	-0.37	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.3,-0.37,-0.37	-0.14	-0.25	-0.02	20	39%	-0.18	3	-0.18	6	83%	0.01

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Gerald Wilkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.06	0.06	-0.00	7	75%	0.15	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Derek Strong	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0,0,0.07,0.09	0.09	-0.03	0.11	-0.00	10	54%	0.14	2	-0.06	6	100%	0.09
Dennis Scott	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.14,0.14,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.11	-0.04	0.01	10	74%	0.06	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Rony Seikaly	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.01,0.01,-0.1,0,0	-0.00	0.03	-0.03	0.00	12	77%	0.23	5	-0.23	6	50%	-0.03
Brian Shaw	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	3	50%	-0.03	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.03
Anfernee Hardaway	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,-0.02,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06	-0.06	0.01	-0.06	0.00	17	56%	0.01	2	-0.07	7	100%	0.09
Dan Schayes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Nick Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.11	-0.00	-0.01	6	14%	-0.08	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.0	2.5	24.4	15.7	22.1	2.5	41.4	133.6
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +32.9%

ORL +9.2%

ORL +17.9%

MIL -19.0%

ORL +9.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	ORL	NBA	MIL	ORL	NBA
this game	16.8	16.9	15.6	108.2	111.6	104.4
season	16.0	16.4		103.9	102.9
opponent	15.5	15.5		103.5	106.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	15.9	16.5	19.8	15.3	16.8
ORL	17.5	16.2	18.1	16.0	16.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Joe Wolf	9	8	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.01	-1	-3	2	18.2	16.6	1.62	12.4	17.4	-5.00
Elliot Perry	45	45	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	-0.28	3	-7	10	15.9	17.8	-1.89	16.1	17.8	-1.67
Johnny Newman	35	37	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	-0.22	0	-4	4	16.2	17.2	-0.93	16.1	17.5	-1.35
Chucky Brown	11	11	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.16	-2	-2	0	16.8	16.8	0.05	11.8	17.7	-5.84
Sherman Douglas	40	41	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	-0.10	-7	3	-10	17.8	15.9	1.89	17.8	16.1	1.67
Vin Baker	79	82	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	-0.28	-2	-2	0	16.8	17.0	-0.24	17.4	6.2	11.18
Glenn Robinson	78	78	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	-0.37	0	-4	4	16.0	25.1	-9.12	17.4	12.2	5.13
Armen Gilliam	70	70	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.31	-2	-2	0	16.8	16.7	0.05	17.8	13.0	4.80
Ray Allen	58	58	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.18	-9	5	-14	17.9	14.4	3.53	16.5	17.7	-1.14

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dennis Scott	65	62	0.71	-0.21	0.93	0.42	10	-6	16	17.2	15.9	1.33	17.4	15.1	2.26
Derek Strong	69	67	0.67	-0.17	0.84	0.43	8	-4	12	17.4	14.9	2.45	16.3	18.4	-2.12
Anfernee Hardaway	69	68	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.42	0	4	-4	17.3	15.1	2.23	15.9	20.4	-4.54
Rony Seikaly	76	75	0.35	0.15	0.19	0.35	0	4	-4	17.1	15.1	2.04	16.3	20.5	-4.22
Brian Shaw	24	25	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.03	8	-4	12	14.0	18.0	-4.09	18.5	16.1	2.41
Nick Anderson	64	64	0.12	0.38	-0.27	0.26	-5	9	-14	17.9	14.1	3.72	15.8	19.7	-3.90
Gerald Wilkins	36	36	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	0.02	-1	5	-6	15.7	17.7	-1.99	18.0	15.9	2.07
Dan Schayes	27	28	-0.01	0.51	-0.53	-0.01	0	4	-4	15.0	17.8	-2.78	19.2	15.6	3.58

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.58,0.59,0.58,0.57,0.57,0.61,0.57,0.55,0.58,0.6,0.62,0.6,0.64,0.67,0.6,0.63,0.61,0.54,0.56,0.64,0.56,0.54,0.62,0.69,0.7,0.73,0.76,0.74,0.68,0.59,0.71,0.7,0.68,0.74,0.85,0.82,0.84,0.81,0.74,0.8,0.73,0.47,0.54,0.68,0.92,1
Game		Similarity Score
NOP 80, WAS 83	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.55,0.63,0.61,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.58,0.63,0.58,0.58,0.55,0.56,0.58,0.53,0.58,0.56,0.54,0.58,0.54,0.58,0.59,0.57,0.58,0.58,0.64,0.68,0.68,0.69,0.66,0.7,0.71,0.81,0.81,0.85,0.89,0.85,0.83,0.76,0.82,0.53,0.46,0.86,0.92,1	93.3%
NJN 75, PHX 82	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.5,0.5,0.47,0.51,0.57,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.53,0.6,0.62,0.62,0.6,0.67,0.69,0.63,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.59,0.5,0.6,0.63,0.76,0.78,0.76,0.74,0.62,0.59,0.56,0.63,0.68,0.62,0.7,0.74,0.76,0.77,0.78,0.85,0.72,0.47,0.46,0.45,0.84,1	92.7%
MIN 105, SAC 112	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.54,0.53,0.49,0.55,0.57,0.6,0.55,0.62,0.56,0.52,0.58,0.68,0.67,0.67,0.63,0.7,0.64,0.64,0.58,0.67,0.59,0.54,0.68,0.72,0.73,0.79,0.76,0.77,0.71,0.78,0.79,0.81,0.79,0.66,0.74,0.79,0.71,0.73,0.74,0.65,0.61,0.69,0.64,0.77,0.91,1	92.5%