NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Charlotte Hornets	93		Excitement	8.4 [185]		MVP	Luol Deng (MIA): +15.0%
Miami Heat	94		Comeback	6.8 [201]		LVP	Kemba Walker (CHA): -50.4%

Charlotte Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Gary Neal	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.15,0.15,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.18,0.13,0.13	0.00	0.13	0.00	11	57%	0.24	3	-0.11	1	100%	0.01
Marvin Williams	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.05	0.03	0.00	5	70%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Cody Zeller	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.05	-0.03	0.00	7	61%	0.02	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Gerald Henderson	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.01	5	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lance Stephenson	-0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.03	-0.01	14	53%	0.09	3	-0.10	4	50%	-0.02
Brian Roberts	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	-0.01	5	20%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Al Jefferson	-0.03	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.07,-0.03	0.09	-0.11	0.02	17	56%	-0.03	0	0.00	5	80%	0.01
Bismack Biyombo	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.04	-0.03	0.00	0	0%	0.00	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Kemba Walker	-0.50	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.02,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.18,0.18,0.09,-0.5	-0.02	-0.48	-0.00	15	50%	-0.30	3	-0.20	2	100%	0.02

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Luol Deng	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.24,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.22	-0.05	0.02	14	79%	0.15	0	0.00	5	80%	0.02
Shabazz Napier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.11,0.09,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.04	0.05	-0.00	9	70%	0.25	3	-0.16	2	100%	0.03
Chris Bosh	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.18,-0.1,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,0.03	0.03	-0.08	0.10	-0.01	21	48%	0.16	5	-0.13	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.00	-0.00	3	67%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shawne Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	-0.00	0.00	4	62%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mario Chalmers	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.02	0.02	0.08	-0.04	0.02	8	77%	0.26	3	-0.24	10	90%	0.10
Chris Andersen	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Ennis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.02	0.00	0	100%	0.02	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Josh McRoberts	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	0.00	-0.00	5	30%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Shannon Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.09	-0.03	-0.00	2	0%	-0.04	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.6	2.0	26.6	15.7	24.6	2.4	37.5	131.4
league avg	24.6	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +62.1%

MIA +17.2%

CHA -10.7%

CHA -22.4%

MIA +3.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHA	MIA	NBA	CHA	MIA	NBA
this game	15.8	16.6	15.1	104.5	105.6	104.2
season	15.6	16.0		98.9	102.4
opponent	15.3	15.1		105.4	102.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHA	14.6	18.1	14.8	15.9	15.8
MIA	15.4	17.9	18.0	15.4	16.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Charlotte Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Gerald Henderson	39	39	0.17	-0.67	0.85	-0.03	7	-8	15	15.2	16.2	-0.97	16.7	16.5	0.15
Bismack Biyombo	25	25	0.10	-0.60	0.69	0.12	-1	0	-1	15.1	16.0	-0.91	18.1	16.0	2.08
Brian Roberts	29	28	0.04	-0.54	0.58	0.16	-4	3	-7	15.3	16.0	-0.69	17.8	16.0	1.75
Cody Zeller	57	56	-0.21	-0.28	0.07	-0.07	-5	4	-9	15.9	15.5	0.43	16.9	16.1	0.78
Marvin Williams	45	48	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	-0.48	6	-7	13	15.1	16.5	-1.39	16.7	16.4	0.27
Al Jefferson	63	64	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.46	2	-3	5	16.2	14.8	1.37	16.0	18.1	-2.08
Kemba Walker	67	67	-0.55	0.05	-0.59	-0.61	2	-3	5	15.9	15.3	0.61	16.0	18.4	-2.36
Gary Neal	58	56	-0.65	0.15	-0.81	-0.42	-8	7	-15	15.9	15.6	0.25	16.4	17.0	-0.61
Lance Stephenson	62	62	-0.69	0.19	-0.88	-0.57	-4	3	-7	16.3	14.6	1.75	16.5	16.9	-0.38

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Luol Deng	70	71	0.69	-0.19	0.88	0.52	6	-5	11	16.2	17.9	-1.73	15.8	15.6	0.28
Chris Bosh	67	67	0.65	-0.15	0.80	0.59	2	-1	3	16.2	17.8	-1.64	16.0	15.2	0.73
Shabazz Napier	63	62	0.63	-0.13	0.76	0.57	2	-1	3	16.2	17.6	-1.40	16.3	14.7	1.59
Shawne Williams	48	49	0.55	-0.05	0.59	0.63	-3	4	-7	15.6	17.7	-2.13	16.3	15.2	1.09
Mario Chalmers	71	71	0.46	0.04	0.43	0.38	3	-2	5	16.7	16.1	0.66	15.5	17.1	-1.60
Josh McRoberts	30	30	0.03	0.47	-0.45	-0.12	5	-4	9	17.7	16.0	1.68	15.7	15.8	-0.16
Chris Andersen	3	3	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	-0.02	0	1	-1	12.0	16.7	-4.74	15.7	15.8	-0.11
James Ennis	30	31	-0.07	0.57	-0.63	-0.07	0	1	-1	17.6	16.1	1.58	16.2	15.6	0.64
Udonis Haslem	30	29	-0.20	0.70	-0.90	-0.14	-2	3	-5	18.4	15.7	2.74	14.7	16.3	-1.66
Shannon Brown	33	32	-0.22	0.72	-0.94	0.01	-8	9	-17	16.9	16.4	0.52	15.0	16.2	-1.16

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.56,0.53,0.57,0.55,0.51,0.6,0.58,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.58,0.53,0.58,0.59,0.64,0.64,0.67,0.66,0.67,0.75,0.74,0.63,0.55,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.48,0.4,0.3,0.34,0.25,0.33,0.37,0.21,0.16,0.53,0.56,0.55,0.24,0.26,1
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 98, POR 99	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.57,0.59,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.53,0.49,0.62,0.57,0.58,0.58,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.6,0.61,0.66,0.56,0.64,0.67,0.58,0.63,0.63,0.64,0.55,0.55,0.42,0.38,0.48,0.44,0.3,0.36,0.3,0.34,0.28,0.24,0.27,0.36,0.46,0.6,0.39,0.45,0.22,0.09,1	90.8%
NYK 81, MIA 82	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.4,0.45,0.47,0.5,0.42,0.49,0.47,0.5,0.56,0.56,0.58,0.66,0.61,0.56,0.51,0.63,0.66,0.69,0.64,0.61,0.61,0.55,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.56,0.38,0.43,0.43,0.47,0.53,0.36,0.35,0.46,0.48,0.37,0.33,0.42,1	90.5%
CLE 100, ORL 102	0.5,0.51,0.47,0.52,0.57,0.54,0.53,0.57,0.61,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.62,0.68,0.7,0.64,0.6,0.67,0.63,0.66,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.67,0.7,0.8,0.77,0.74,0.64,0.58,0.52,0.55,0.59,0.52,0.47,0.33,0.32,0.15,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.23,0.31,0.35,0.33,0.45,0.64,0.23,0.15,1	90.1%