NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	103		Excitement	8.9 [150]		MVP	Rasual Butler (WAS): +31.3%
Washington Wizards	107		Comeback	3.3 [605]		LVP	Nene (WAS): -30.4%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Brandon Jennings	0.22	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.03,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.09,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.19,0.21,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.22,0.22	0.19	0.05	0.02	19	68%	0.26	2	-0.05	9	78%	-0.00
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	0.14	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.11,0.11,0.14	0.12	0.01	-0.01	14	71%	0.16	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Jonas Jerebko	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.04	0.04	0.00	3	75%	0.08	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
D.J. Augustin	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.00	0.03	-0.00	7	50%	0.07	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.03
Joel Anthony	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Caron Butler	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	5	50%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Singler	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	7	37%	-0.03	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.05
Andre Drummond	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	3	33%	-0.02	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Greg Monroe	-0.13	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.13	0.01	-0.13	0.01	13	55%	0.09	3	-0.22	7	86%	0.02
Josh Smith	-0.13	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.13	-0.09	-0.05	-0.02	10	30%	-0.08	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rasual Butler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.17,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.31	0.31	0.16	0.16	0.01	8	100%	0.36	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.02
Marcin Gortat	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.08,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.03,-0.03,0.12	0.12	-0.02	0.15	0.01	12	54%	0.18	3	-0.06	2	0%	-0.02
John Wall	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.03,0.03,-0.04,0.11,0.12	0.12	0.04	0.07	-0.01	19	50%	0.13	1	-0.01	16	81%	0.00
Kris Humphries	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	-0.00	0.05	-0.00	10	50%	0.09	1	-0.03	4	50%	-0.01
Garrett Temple	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.00	0.02	-0.01	5	43%	0.03	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Otto Porter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	3	33%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andre Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	0	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.03
Kevin Seraphin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	6	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Paul Pierce	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	0.00	-0.08	0.01	11	54%	-0.02	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Nene	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.08,-0.17,-0.3,-0.3	-0.30	-0.04	-0.26	0.00	9	42%	-0.07	2	-0.23	1	0%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.3	2.4	32.3	15.4	24.3	1.8	38.0	142.5
league avg	24.6	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

WAS +21.4%

DET -7.0%

WAS +30.2%

WAS +7.2%

DET -1.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	WAS	NBA	DET	WAS	NBA
this game	16.3	13.7	15.1	107.3	111.5	104.2
season	15.7	15.1		104.0	102.9
opponent	15.3	15.3		101.7	105.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	15.7	18.4	15.7	15.7	16.3
WAS	12.4	14.4	13.7	14.3	13.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Caron Butler	49	49	0.32	-0.82	1.14	-0.00	11	-15	26	16.2	16.4	-0.22	14.3	13.0	1.26
Joel Anthony	8	7	0.05	-0.55	0.60	-0.01	2	-6	8	16.6	16.3	0.34	13.1	13.7	-0.59
Jonas Jerebko	36	36	-0.02	-0.48	0.47	-0.13	4	-8	12	17.2	15.8	1.46	14.6	13.1	1.43
D.J. Augustin	25	26	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	0.08	-4	0	-4	18.1	15.7	2.39	15.5	13.0	2.54
Andre Drummond	45	48	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	0.06	-4	0	-4	16.7	16.0	0.67	14.2	13.2	1.00
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	71	71	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.35	-1	-3	2	16.0	17.3	-1.31	13.2	15.1	-1.94
Brandon Jennings	71	70	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.46	0	-4	4	15.7	18.1	-2.39	13.0	15.5	-2.54
Greg Monroe	69	67	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.40	-4	0	-4	15.9	17.3	-1.32	13.1	15.0	-1.93
Josh Smith	55	56	-0.63	0.13	-0.76	-0.28	-12	8	-20	15.8	17.0	-1.11	13.0	14.7	-1.74
Kyle Singler	51	50	-0.77	0.27	-1.04	-0.42	-12	8	-20	16.9	15.6	1.26	14.3	13.0	1.36

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nene	57	56	0.80	-0.30	1.10	0.42	13	-9	22	13.2	14.5	-1.30	16.1	16.6	-0.58
Paul Pierce	60	60	0.76	-0.26	1.01	0.43	11	-7	18	13.4	14.2	-0.86	15.7	17.3	-1.54
John Wall	76	75	0.60	-0.10	0.71	0.43	6	-2	8	13.2	15.6	-2.48	16.0	17.3	-1.25
Rasual Butler	52	52	0.60	-0.10	0.70	0.31	10	-6	16	14.3	13.0	1.35	16.6	16.0	0.53
Marcin Gortat	53	53	0.51	-0.01	0.53	0.43	3	1	2	13.1	14.4	-1.32	16.8	15.7	1.03
Garrett Temple	46	47	0.04	0.46	-0.42	0.19	-5	9	-14	12.5	14.8	-2.32	15.3	17.3	-2.03
Andre Miller	21	21	-0.15	0.65	-0.81	-0.10	-2	6	-8	15.1	13.3	1.80	17.4	16.0	1.43
Kevin Seraphin	32	32	-0.22	0.72	-0.94	-0.07	-5	9	-14	14.6	13.2	1.41	16.9	16.0	0.84
Kris Humphries	48	48	-0.24	0.74	-0.98	-0.07	-6	10	-16	14.8	12.5	2.29	16.5	16.2	0.29
Otto Porter	36	37	-0.24	0.74	-0.98	-0.04	-7	11	-18	14.2	13.4	0.86	16.9	15.9	0.94

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.5,0.47,0.44,0.42,0.38,0.33,0.34,0.37,0.34,0.27,0.3,0.32,0.32,0.36,0.38,0.3,0.28,0.25,0.31,0.33,0.39,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.55,0.64,0.7,0.62,0.62,0.45,0.44,0.44,0.52,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.48,0.58,0.36,0.35,0.53,0.56,0.46,0.55,0.58,1
Game		Similarity Score
LAC 103, GSW 105	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.38,0.41,0.46,0.44,0.43,0.37,0.33,0.26,0.29,0.34,0.24,0.24,0.29,0.25,0.24,0.25,0.27,0.34,0.42,0.36,0.36,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.58,0.61,0.67,0.53,0.59,0.45,0.52,0.48,0.44,0.38,0.48,0.38,0.42,0.53,0.59,0.6,0.54,0.62,0.54,0.57,0.85,1	91.7%
MIN 103, NYK 107	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.39,0.4,0.36,0.37,0.31,0.34,0.33,0.3,0.34,0.38,0.37,0.36,0.28,0.27,0.31,0.31,0.34,0.34,0.36,0.4,0.36,0.44,0.5,0.48,0.45,0.55,0.45,0.45,0.58,0.55,0.45,0.37,0.33,0.4,0.38,0.43,0.38,0.38,0.37,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.55,0.45,0.69,0.58,1	91.4%
DEN 101, BOS 106	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.44,0.35,0.38,0.37,0.31,0.29,0.38,0.48,0.47,0.36,0.36,0.33,0.33,0.32,0.3,0.33,0.36,0.31,0.36,0.49,0.46,0.54,0.61,0.61,0.55,0.52,0.41,0.55,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.5,0.48,0.43,0.48,0.47,0.53,0.59,0.54,0.38,0.45,0.68,0.73,1	90.8%