NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	118		Excitement	5.5 [709]		MVP	Mike Dunleavy (CHI): +23.2%
Philadelphia 76ers	115		Comeback	2.4 [865]		LVP	KJ McDaniels (PHI): -6.8%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mike Dunleavy	0.23	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.21,0.26,0.26,0.24,0.25,0.25,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23	0.19	0.05	0.01	15	77%	0.25	1	-0.02	5	80%	0.02
Jimmy Butler	0.10	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.13	0.01	0.03	15	64%	0.13	1	-0.03	6	100%	0.02
Taj Gibson	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.06	0.00	0.00	6	79%	0.07	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.01
Aaron Brooks	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.00	-0.01	8	62%	0.05	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Tony Snell	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.04	0.00	0.02	1	150%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Pau Gasol	0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02	0.02	-0.00	-0.00	11	63%	0.08	4	-0.06	5	100%	0.01
Doug McDermott	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.04	-0.01	0.03	4	100%	0.05	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Joakim Noah	-0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	4	42%	0.01	2	-0.03	4	75%	-0.01
Nikola Mirotic	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	2	17%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Kirk Hinrich	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.08,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.06	-0.14	0.03	-0.05	12	38%	0.02	5	-0.08	10	60%	-0.01

Philadelphia 76ers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Henry Sims	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.09	-0.01	0.03	10	76%	0.09	2	-0.04	1	100%	0.00
Hollis Thompson	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.07	0.01	0.05	14	58%	0.05	1	-0.02	8	50%	-0.03
Luc Mbah a Moute	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.09	-0.01	0.07	12	62%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Chris Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01	-0.01	0.03	0.02	0.05	6	67%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Davies	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	-0.00	7	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
JaKarr Sampson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	0.01	3	67%	0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Tony Wroten	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.06,0.04,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04	-0.04	0.03	-0.04	0.03	27	50%	0.04	2	-0.08	8	75%	0.00
Alexey Shved	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.01	0.02	5	43%	-0.04	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.03
KJ McDaniels	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	7	37%	0.01	3	-0.08	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.1	1.8	31.2	15.8	23.2	2.5	46.2	144.7
league avg	24.6	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI +26.6%

CHI +18.4%

PHI -1.1%

CHI +4.1%

CHI +2.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	PHI	NBA	CHI	PHI	NBA
this game	16.3	14.2	15.1	125.5	121.1	104.2
season	15.5	14.9		105.4	94.3
opponent	14.8	15.2		103.4	102.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	17.7	15.0	16.0	16.7	16.3
PHI	14.4	15.0	14.6	12.8	14.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Pau Gasol	69	70	0.82	-0.32	1.14	0.17	22	-19	41	15.6	18.2	-2.59	14.0	14.8	-0.77
Mike Dunleavy	61	63	0.74	-0.24	0.98	0.21	18	-15	33	15.5	17.8	-2.34	14.1	14.4	-0.37
Jimmy Butler	78	81	0.66	-0.16	0.82	0.22	15	-12	27	15.9	18.2	-2.35	14.4	13.1	1.31
Joakim Noah	60	60	0.48	0.02	0.47	0.34	5	-2	7	16.2	16.5	-0.32	13.9	14.7	-0.79
Kirk Hinrich	62	62	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.36	4	-1	5	16.1	16.7	-0.54	13.9	14.7	-0.82
Aaron Brooks	32	33	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.06	1	2	-1	16.7	16.1	0.54	14.7	13.9	0.82
Taj Gibson	44	44	-0.14	0.64	-0.79	0.24	-13	16	-29	17.1	15.6	1.49	14.5	13.9	0.66
Nikola Mirotic	15	16	-0.16	0.66	-0.82	0.08	-8	11	-19	17.6	16.1	1.55	15.2	14.0	1.20
Tony Snell	16	14	-0.23	0.73	-0.96	0.18	-14	17	-31	18.2	15.9	2.35	13.1	14.4	-1.31
Doug McDermott	33	32	-0.24	0.74	-0.98	0.20	-15	18	-33	17.8	15.5	2.34	14.4	14.1	0.37

Philadelphia 76ers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Henry Sims	52	53	0.03	-0.53	0.57	-0.47	17	-20	37	13.3	15.2	-1.91	15.5	17.3	-1.81
Chris Johnson	46	45	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	-0.27	6	-9	15	13.9	14.4	-0.54	14.6	17.8	-3.17
Alexey Shved	28	27	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.07	-3	0	-3	14.7	14.0	0.74	15.7	16.5	-0.83
Tony Wroten	66	67	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	-0.29	0	-3	3	14.2	14.3	-0.12	16.5	15.7	0.83
JaKarr Sampson	50	49	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	-0.18	-4	1	-5	15.6	12.6	3.06	17.3	15.2	2.02
KJ McDaniels	55	55	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.15	-6	3	-9	13.8	14.7	-0.97	16.4	16.2	0.25
Luc Mbah a Moute	67	66	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	-0.34	0	-3	3	14.0	14.7	-0.74	16.5	15.9	0.58
Hollis Thompson	63	62	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.28	-7	4	-11	13.7	15.1	-1.36	16.4	16.0	0.40
Brandon Davies	48	46	-0.55	0.05	-0.59	-0.02	-18	15	-33	15.0	13.4	1.64	17.2	15.4	1.84

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.43,0.49,0.45,0.39,0.39,0.47,0.47,0.42,0.37,0.44,0.47,0.49,0.53,0.63,0.68,0.69,0.64,0.67,0.62,0.61,0.5,0.49,0.37,0.39,0.24,0.24,0.15,0.1,0.27,0.23,0.14,0.07,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.03,0.01,0,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
DET 101, NJN 83	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.42,0.39,0.4,0.44,0.41,0.41,0.43,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.53,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.58,0.61,0.64,0.64,0.61,0.64,0.56,0.5,0.45,0.43,0.33,0.24,0.14,0.21,0.12,0.09,0.11,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.01,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	94.5%
BOS 94, HOU 74	0.5,0.5,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.49,0.42,0.41,0.45,0.45,0.4,0.47,0.45,0.52,0.53,0.55,0.62,0.67,0.65,0.63,0.59,0.59,0.58,0.61,0.56,0.5,0.38,0.4,0.36,0.27,0.21,0.13,0.11,0.16,0.13,0.12,0.08,0.03,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	94.2%
MIA 117, HOU 93	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.44,0.43,0.39,0.42,0.41,0.37,0.35,0.4,0.38,0.4,0.48,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.53,0.51,0.55,0.61,0.64,0.67,0.64,0.61,0.51,0.54,0.45,0.33,0.24,0.24,0.21,0.09,0.1,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.13,0.1,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0	93.9%