NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	102		Excitement	5.6 [699]		MVP	Shawne Williams (MIA): +14.9%
Miami Heat	107		Comeback	1.1 [854]		LVP	Charles Hayes (TOR): -9.7%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jonas Valanciunas	0.05	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.06	0.00	0.02	12	54%	0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Tyler Hansbrough	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Greivis Vasquez	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.00	0.00	-0.01	11	55%	0.06	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
James Johnson	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.03	-0.01	-0.00	6	67%	0.06	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
DeMar DeRozan	0.01	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.05	-0.02	0.03	22	54%	0.06	2	-0.05	12	58%	-0.05
Lou Williams	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0	-0.03	-0.00	-0.03	4	44%	0.02	1	-0.02	10	60%	-0.04
Kyle Lowry	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,0.02,0,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.01,0	0.08	-0.01	0.07	11	63%	0.05	2	-0.05	13	54%	-0.06
Terrence Ross	-0.00	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.01	-0.01	7	37%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Patrick Patterson	-0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Charles Hayes	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.09	-0.01	-0.00	3	0%	-0.05	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Shawne Williams	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.08,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.10	0.05	-0.00	10	67%	0.15	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Luol Deng	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.06	0.02	-0.01	14	56%	0.09	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Chris Bosh	0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.00	0.05	-0.02	13	54%	0.12	3	-0.05	13	77%	0.02
Shabazz Napier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.01	0.00	3	89%	0.10	2	-0.05	3	100%	0.02
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.05	-0.00	0.01	11	68%	0.09	3	-0.05	6	67%	0.01
James Ennis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	150%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Shannon Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.01	0.00	0	50%	0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Mario Chalmers	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	-0.00	-0.02	10	46%	0.03	2	-0.04	6	83%	0.01
Josh McRoberts	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Justin Hamilton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	100%	0.01	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Norris Cole	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	5	50%	0.01	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.7	2.5	34.5	15.7	25.0	1.8	49.2	157.3
league avg	24.6	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +26.2%

MIA +15.8%

MIA +13.2%

TOR -7.0%

MIA +1.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	MIA	NBA	TOR	MIA	NBA
this game	16.0	15.1	15.1	110.9	115.1	104.2
season	15.6	16.0		109.1	102.4
opponent	15.3	15.0		105.4	106.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	17.9	15.0	17.9	13.4	16.0
MIA	13.4	14.4	15.6	17.2	15.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Lou Williams	41	38	0.18	-0.68	0.86	-0.26	15	-20	35	15.2	16.7	-1.47	15.8	14.7	1.16
Charles Hayes	23	22	0.03	-0.53	0.56	-0.06	3	-8	11	16.8	15.7	1.09	13.5	15.6	-2.13
Tyler Hansbrough	47	50	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.29	9	-14	23	15.3	16.7	-1.37	15.2	15.0	0.24
James Johnson	36	39	-0.16	-0.34	0.19	-0.16	0	-5	5	14.8	16.8	-1.98	17.5	13.4	4.11
Patrick Patterson	27	27	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	0.04	-11	6	-17	18.9	14.8	4.07	15.1	15.1	-0.03
Greivis Vasquez	47	50	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.26	-1	-4	3	14.8	17.3	-2.55	15.8	14.3	1.45
Terrence Ross	36	35	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	0.00	-13	8	-21	17.1	15.3	1.76	12.5	16.7	-4.19
DeMar DeRozan	79	78	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.33	-3	-2	-1	15.8	17.5	-1.78	15.3	14.3	0.95
Jonas Valanciunas	54	53	-0.48	-0.02	-0.47	-0.16	-11	6	-17	16.4	15.5	0.92	15.6	14.5	1.06
Kyle Lowry	70	73	-0.66	0.16	-0.83	-0.28	-13	8	-21	16.5	14.6	1.87	14.2	18.4	-4.23

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Luol Deng	70	71	0.59	-0.09	0.69	0.24	12	-7	19	15.3	14.5	0.81	16.2	15.5	0.69
Dwyane Wade	60	58	0.53	-0.03	0.57	0.24	10	-5	15	15.8	13.9	1.94	16.2	15.7	0.53
Norris Cole	58	57	0.41	0.09	0.33	0.15	9	-4	13	13.9	17.1	-3.18	16.4	15.4	0.99
Shawne Williams	52	50	0.41	0.09	0.31	0.20	7	-2	9	16.6	13.3	3.28	16.7	15.2	1.55
Chris Bosh	73	75	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.27	4	1	3	15.3	14.6	0.61	15.7	17.5	-1.86
Mario Chalmers	49	48	0.14	0.36	-0.23	0.34	-7	12	-19	14.9	15.4	-0.45	14.9	17.3	-2.42
Justin Hamilton	35	33	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.18	-4	9	-13	14.2	15.7	-1.44	16.8	15.6	1.21
Shabazz Napier	34	33	0.03	0.47	-0.45	0.09	-2	7	-9	14.7	15.4	-0.67	14.9	16.6	-1.67
Shannon Brown	4	3	0.03	0.47	-0.45	-0.00	1	4	-3	8.2	15.4	-7.19	13.3	16.1	-2.77
Josh McRoberts	15	16	-0.02	0.52	-0.55	0.01	-1	6	-7	15.9	15.0	0.96	16.4	15.9	0.52
James Ennis	15	16	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	0.06	-4	9	-13	15.2	15.1	0.08	16.8	15.8	0.97

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.53,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.6,0.6,0.66,0.67,0.6,0.58,0.62,0.63,0.58,0.58,0.68,0.62,0.61,0.61,0.64,0.61,0.66,0.72,0.75,0.78,0.74,0.77,0.87,0.85,0.86,0.87,0.9,0.91,0.94,0.92,0.89,0.87,0.85,0.94,0.89,0.91,0.83,0.85,0.82,0.96,0.96,0.98,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
NOP 92, OKC 101	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.5,0.5,0.56,0.62,0.59,0.61,0.62,0.62,0.61,0.57,0.58,0.62,0.62,0.6,0.67,0.63,0.68,0.64,0.58,0.73,0.7,0.76,0.71,0.74,0.8,0.85,0.76,0.8,0.8,0.84,0.89,0.94,0.92,0.92,0.93,0.96,0.92,0.88,0.96,0.95,0.9,0.94,0.95,0.97,0.96,1	95.0%
NJN 84, UTA 91	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.57,0.59,0.65,0.65,0.63,0.57,0.57,0.64,0.68,0.65,0.64,0.64,0.63,0.62,0.6,0.68,0.64,0.66,0.69,0.64,0.73,0.7,0.71,0.69,0.75,0.78,0.81,0.82,0.91,0.94,0.97,0.94,0.92,0.87,0.87,0.88,0.8,0.85,0.83,0.84,0.83,0.9,0.93,0.97,0.98,1	94.9%
NJN 104, NYK 114	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.57,0.63,0.61,0.63,0.62,0.62,0.68,0.64,0.64,0.62,0.62,0.63,0.68,0.66,0.71,0.76,0.7,0.67,0.73,0.65,0.74,0.85,0.91,0.9,0.89,0.96,0.94,0.91,0.95,0.9,0.87,0.92,0.93,0.89,0.88,0.92,0.94,0.98,0.95,1,1,1,1	94.7%