NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	91		Excitement	6.6 [484]		MVP	Caron Butler (DET): +33.2%
Minnesota Timberwolves	97		Comeback	1.4 [898]		LVP	Josh Smith (DET): -30.4%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Caron Butler	0.33	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.33,0.33	0.19	0.18	0.04	14	86%	0.39	1	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Jonas Jerebko	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	4	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joel Anthony	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
D.J. Augustin	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.03,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.09,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	18	47%	0.09	2	-0.08	7	100%	0.05
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	-0.03	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.05	0.01	-0.01	13	39%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.01
Brandon Jennings	-0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	0.01	4	50%	0.00	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Singler	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	6	42%	-0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Andre Drummond	-0.16	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.15,-0.16	-0.10	-0.08	-0.03	14	34%	-0.11	2	-0.05	4	25%	-0.02
Josh Smith	-0.30	0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.06,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.11,-0.21,-0.21,-0.3,-0.3,-0.3	-0.14	-0.16	0.01	16	31%	-0.20	3	-0.11	0	0%	0.00

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Thaddeus Young	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.27,0.27	0.27	0.10	0.20	0.03	13	66%	0.30	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.01
Mo Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.1,0.1,0.15	0.15	0.04	0.09	-0.01	11	54%	0.15	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Nikola Pekovic	0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,0,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.02	0.05	-0.01	13	59%	0.14	3	-0.06	3	100%	0.02
Gorgui Dieng	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.00	0.00	2	67%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Anthony Bennett	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.00	-0.02	4	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Martin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.01	-0.00	8	55%	0.04	2	-0.04	6	83%	0.01
Zach LaVine	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Corey Brewer	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.01	0.00	0.01	6	57%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Shabazz Muhammad	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0	50%	0.00	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Ricky Rubio	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	10	44%	-0.03	1	-0.04	5	60%	-0.00
Andrew Wiggins	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	-0.01	9	38%	-0.02	3	-0.06	3	0%	-0.05

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.2	2.5	26.5	15.8	27.1	2.4	33.5	131.0
league avg	24.6	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIN +45.7%

MIN +3.5%

DET -18.2%

MIN +13.5%

MIN +5.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	MIN	NBA	DET	MIN	NBA
this game	17.6	13.7	15.1	98.9	105.4	104.2
season	15.7	15.0		104.0	101.2
opponent	15.0	15.3		110.5	105.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	15.7	19.3	17.6	18.0	17.6
MIN	13.6	13.4	14.5	13.3	13.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jonas Jerebko	33	33	0.16	-0.66	0.83	-0.13	10	-16	26	17.5	17.6	-0.10	14.8	13.1	1.70
Caron Butler	59	58	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.32	9	-15	24	17.5	17.8	-0.28	13.6	13.9	-0.25
Joel Anthony	31	30	-0.16	-0.34	0.17	-0.05	-4	-2	-2	18.9	17.0	1.90	14.5	13.3	1.24
D.J. Augustin	61	60	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.28	2	-8	10	18.2	16.4	1.89	13.7	13.6	0.16
Brandon Jennings	31	32	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.04	-8	2	-10	16.4	18.2	-1.89	13.6	13.7	-0.16
Andre Drummond	61	62	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	-0.28	-2	-4	2	17.0	18.9	-1.90	13.3	14.5	-1.24
Kyle Singler	46	46	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.00	-12	6	-18	17.7	17.5	0.13	13.4	14.0	-0.57
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	79	80	-0.59	0.09	-0.68	-0.33	-9	3	-12	17.6	17.4	0.26	13.9	12.2	1.76
Josh Smith	59	59	-0.66	0.16	-0.83	-0.19	-16	10	-26	17.6	17.5	0.10	13.1	14.8	-1.70

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Thaddeus Young	68	67	0.72	-0.22	0.94	0.28	15	-9	24	13.3	14.8	-1.54	17.0	19.3	-2.29
Nikola Pekovic	61	60	0.52	-0.02	0.55	0.20	11	-5	16	13.4	14.4	-0.99	17.3	18.2	-0.98
Corey Brewer	58	56	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.19	9	-3	12	13.6	13.8	-0.16	17.5	17.7	-0.23
Ricky Rubio	59	58	0.41	0.09	0.31	0.29	4	2	2	13.0	15.0	-1.99	17.0	18.6	-1.65
Andrew Wiggins	46	46	0.40	0.10	0.29	0.01	13	-7	20	13.9	13.5	0.43	17.3	17.9	-0.52
Mo Williams	45	45	0.33	0.17	0.15	0.24	3	3	0	13.8	13.6	0.20	18.4	16.9	1.46
Shabazz Muhammad	22	23	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.06	0	6	-6	14.0	13.6	0.40	18.9	17.2	1.74
Gorgui Dieng	31	32	-0.02	0.52	-0.55	0.12	-5	11	-16	14.4	13.4	0.99	18.2	17.3	0.98
Zach LaVine	8	9	-0.05	0.55	-0.59	0.04	-3	9	-12	14.0	13.7	0.33	19.1	17.4	1.67
Kevin Martin	38	39	-0.09	0.59	-0.68	0.14	-8	14	-22	14.3	13.3	0.97	17.0	18.1	-1.10
Anthony Bennett	24	25	-0.22	0.72	-0.94	0.04	-9	15	-24	14.8	13.3	1.54	19.3	17.0	2.29

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.45,0.51,0.47,0.5,0.55,0.57,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.45,0.47,0.5,0.47,0.42,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.56,0.56,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.56,0.5,0.65,0.63,0.7,0.76,0.83,0.87,0.95,0.96,0.95,0.97,0.94,0.87,0.87,0.9,0.89,0.77,0.66,0.67,0.72,0.81,0.71,0.77,0.92,1
Game		Similarity Score
DEN 94, UTA 98	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.5,0.58,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.6,0.52,0.53,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.63,0.56,0.52,0.51,0.59,0.59,0.58,0.65,0.6,0.64,0.73,0.76,0.76,0.78,0.84,0.87,0.84,0.92,0.81,0.82,0.82,0.83,0.81,0.74,0.54,0.67,0.8,0.89,0.78,0.73,1	92.6%
POR 123, NOP 131	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.54,0.43,0.48,0.47,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.56,0.62,0.51,0.58,0.56,0.61,0.59,0.51,0.56,0.52,0.51,0.54,0.6,0.7,0.75,0.73,0.84,0.88,0.86,0.9,0.9,0.91,0.94,0.87,0.86,0.71,0.63,0.79,0.79,0.61,0.76,0.72,0.97,0.96,1	92.5%
WAS 86, SAC 88	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.57,0.55,0.5,0.5,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.48,0.53,0.49,0.52,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.44,0.4,0.53,0.54,0.56,0.56,0.51,0.56,0.63,0.66,0.69,0.75,0.83,0.81,0.81,0.83,0.89,0.92,0.86,0.85,0.81,0.81,0.79,0.74,0.73,0.74,0.6,0.66,0.55,0.64,0.77,0.84,1	92.5%