NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Washington Wizards	86		Excitement	7.9 [227]		MVP	Mitch Richmond (SAC): +16.2%
Sacramento Kings	88		Comeback	1.5 [847]		LVP	Rod Strickland (WAS): -40.9%

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Calbert Cheaney	0.10	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,0.1,0.1	-0.05	0.14	-0.00	16	50%	0.20	4	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Harvey Grant	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.02	0.00	8	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tracy Murray	0.00	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.1,0.1,0,0	0.01	-0.00	0.00	24	55%	0.09	3	-0.09	5	80%	-0.01
Lawrence Moten	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Darvin Ham	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	1	17%	-0.06	0	0.00	4	25%	-0.04
Ben Wallace	-0.09	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.02	-0.06	0.00	2	50%	0.00	1	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Terry Davis	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.07	-0.02	0.00	5	31%	-0.07	1	-0.02	3	0%	-0.05
Chris Whitney	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.12	-0.02	-0.10	0.00	4	40%	-0.12	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Rod Strickland	-0.41	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.12,-0.17,-0.2,-0.2,-0.28,-0.28,-0.41	-0.14	-0.26	0.01	18	43%	-0.34	3	-0.06	11	73%	-0.02

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mitch Richmond	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,0,-0.04,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.09,0.09,0.22,0.16	0.16	0.05	0.12	0.01	22	56%	0.18	1	-0.02	8	75%	0.01
Michael Stewart	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.01	0.05	0.00	3	33%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Corliss Williamson	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	19	55%	0.05	1	-0.04	6	33%	-0.03
Terry Dehere	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.01	0.00	6	56%	0.03	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.02
Mark Hendrickson	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	2	60%	0.01	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Olden Polynice	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.07	0.00	0.00	4	44%	0.01	3	-0.07	1	0%	-0.03
Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.12,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.09	-0.08	0.00	14	33%	-0.15	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Billy Owens	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.19,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.23,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.31,-0.31,-0.31	-0.31	-0.21	-0.10	0.01	10	29%	-0.16	6	-0.15	4	50%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.9	2.3	23.6	15.6	25.2	1.5	24.3	118.5
league avg	29.9	2.8	36.8	15.6	26.0	2.1	43.0	157.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAC +24.7%

SAC +10.9%

SAC +0.7%

SAC +3.6%

SAC +10.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	WAS	SAC	NBA	WAS	SAC	NBA
this game	16.7	15.6	15.6	95.6	100.0	102.5
season	15.1	15.2		102.8	98.5
opponent	15.3	15.6		104.3	102.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
WAS	15.5	13.7	19.7	19.5	16.7
SAC	15.8	12.9	14.0	21.7	15.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ben Wallace	53	51	0.06	-0.56	0.62	0.03	1	-3	4	16.4	17.1	-0.70	15.4	15.9	-0.46
Darvin Ham	14	15	0.04	-0.54	0.59	-0.07	4	-6	10	13.8	17.3	-3.48	16.7	15.4	1.26
Lawrence Moten	14	16	-0.11	-0.39	0.27	0.00	-4	2	-6	17.8	16.5	1.26	11.4	16.6	-5.12
Harvey Grant	60	59	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.42	8	-10	18	16.6	17.0	-0.47	16.4	14.1	2.22
Chris Whitney	23	23	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.23	1	-3	4	13.9	17.7	-3.77	14.9	15.9	-0.96
Tracy Murray	76	72	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	-0.47	2	-4	6	16.5	17.8	-1.26	16.1	13.4	2.67
Calbert Cheaney	75	74	-0.50	-0.00	-0.50	-0.35	-5	3	-8	17.6	12.3	5.27	15.7	15.4	0.23
Rod Strickland	78	75	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.48	-1	-1	0	16.9	15.7	1.22	15.8	14.4	1.46
Terry Davis	57	55	-0.68	0.18	-0.86	-0.21	-16	14	-30	17.6	15.2	2.48	15.3	16.2	-0.94

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mitch Richmond	73	76	0.77	-0.27	1.05	0.48	10	-8	18	15.2	17.5	-2.22	17.2	14.2	2.97
Michael Stewart	56	57	0.77	-0.27	1.04	0.36	14	-12	26	15.6	15.7	-0.20	18.0	14.5	3.53
Corliss Williamson	69	70	0.71	-0.21	0.93	0.36	12	-10	22	15.5	15.9	-0.41	17.3	14.5	2.79
Billy Owens	56	59	0.58	-0.08	0.65	0.40	6	-4	10	15.4	16.0	-0.59	17.6	15.0	2.58
Mark Hendrickson	22	22	0.36	0.14	0.23	0.48	-4	6	-10	18.3	14.7	3.53	17.3	16.5	0.79
Terry Dehere	50	50	0.02	0.48	-0.46	0.02	0	2	-2	15.3	16.1	-0.85	17.2	16.1	1.08
Michael Smith	34	34	-0.21	0.71	-0.92	0.05	-9	11	-20	15.4	15.8	-0.35	14.9	17.9	-3.00
Olden Polynice	32	33	-0.25	0.75	-1.00	0.10	-12	14	-26	15.7	15.6	0.20	14.5	18.0	-3.53
Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf	48	49	-0.26	0.76	-1.02	-0.05	-7	9	-16	15.9	15.3	0.60	14.6	19.3	-4.68

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.57,0.55,0.5,0.5,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.48,0.53,0.49,0.52,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.44,0.4,0.53,0.54,0.56,0.56,0.51,0.56,0.63,0.66,0.69,0.75,0.83,0.81,0.81,0.83,0.89,0.92,0.86,0.85,0.81,0.81,0.79,0.74,0.73,0.74,0.6,0.66,0.55,0.64,0.77,0.84,1
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 89, NJN 96	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.59,0.61,0.65,0.65,0.63,0.65,0.58,0.53,0.47,0.49,0.46,0.52,0.48,0.56,0.58,0.59,0.64,0.67,0.71,0.8,0.8,0.84,0.88,0.84,0.88,0.81,0.85,0.86,0.79,0.81,0.78,0.75,0.89,0.77,0.64,0.71,0.67,0.62,0.72,0.78,0.91,1	93.0%
SAC 98, SAS 100	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.5,0.46,0.41,0.39,0.47,0.51,0.47,0.44,0.5,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.63,0.56,0.54,0.56,0.56,0.73,0.71,0.75,0.75,0.82,0.9,0.89,0.91,0.94,0.93,0.84,0.79,0.85,0.81,0.79,0.63,0.68,0.64,0.76,0.71,0.61,0.63,0.57,0.73,1	92.8%
PHI 98, SAS 103	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.5,0.51,0.52,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.39,0.36,0.38,0.43,0.44,0.51,0.51,0.44,0.44,0.52,0.56,0.46,0.49,0.56,0.51,0.58,0.69,0.63,0.73,0.76,0.84,0.82,0.91,0.92,0.93,0.92,0.96,0.9,0.85,0.86,0.87,0.77,0.83,0.85,0.73,0.48,0.55,0.8,0.91,1	92.7%