NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Sacramento Kings	98		Excitement	7.8 [299]		MVP	Bruce Bowen (SAS): +54.2%
San Antonio Spurs	100		Comeback	2.3 [689]		LVP	Mike Bibby (SAC): -31.7%

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Martin	0.27	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.06,0.19,0.19,0.21,0.21,0.27	0.18	0.12	0.04	15	71%	0.29	1	-0.02	12	92%	0.05
John Salmons	0.11	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.07	0.06	0.01	17	59%	0.12	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	0.03	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.05	-0.00	0.02	7	69%	0.05	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Brad Miller	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.11,0.01,0.01	-0.05	0.04	-0.02	5	40%	0.06	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Jason Hart	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ronnie Price	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kenny Thomas	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.01	7	56%	0.01	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.02
Francisco Garcia	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	4	37%	-0.01	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Corliss Williamson	-0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.18,-0.18	-0.03	-0.13	0.01	5	64%	0.05	4	-0.23	4	75%	0.01
Mike Bibby	-0.32	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.01	19	27%	-0.24	3	-0.07	2	50%	-0.01

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bruce Bowen	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.54,0.54	0.54	0.22	0.33	0.01	11	92%	0.56	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.02
Matt Bonner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.06	0.00	0.00	2	100%	0.06	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Eric Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.02	0.02	-0.02	7	57%	0.09	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Robert Horry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.05	0.05	0.03	0.03	0.01	2	60%	0.07	1	-0.03	11	36%	-0.13
Beno Udrih	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.03	0.01	-0.01	5	50%	0.03	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.09,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.16,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	13	53%	0.18	3	-0.20	8	75%	0.04
Francisco Elson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jacque Vaughn	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Fabricio Oberto	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	6	36%	-0.03	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Brent Barry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.08	-0.08	-0.09	-0.00	-0.01	6	14%	-0.07	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.03
Michael Finley	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.10	-0.03	-0.00	8	28%	-0.10	2	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Tony Parker	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.06,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2	-0.20	0.03	-0.20	0.03	13	71%	0.09	5	-0.29	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.1	1.7	26.2	14.6	32.2	2.7	37.0	138.5
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +55.4%

SAC -1.0%

SAS +13.2%

SAC -22.1%

SAS +4.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAC	SAS	NBA	SAC	SAS	NBA
this game	13.8	16.1	15.4	101.0	104.2	104.5
season	14.7	16.2		104.7	107.5
opponent	15.4	15.1		98.9	106.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAC	14.1	13.4	15.8	11.9	13.8
SAS	15.9	16.0	14.8	17.4	16.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jason Hart	0	1	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.03	-1	-1	0	0.0	13.8	-13.80	3.0	16.2	-13.19
Francisco Garcia	36	35	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.13	4	-6	10	12.0	14.9	-2.87	14.6	16.9	-2.33
Ronnie Price	10	10	-0.05	-0.45	0.41	0.10	-5	3	-8	12.4	14.0	-1.57	11.0	16.6	-5.64
Corliss Williamson	43	43	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.43	11	-13	24	13.0	14.5	-1.53	16.8	15.5	1.30
Brad Miller	58	55	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.53	11	-13	24	12.8	15.3	-2.51	16.2	15.9	0.30
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	44	44	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	0.03	-12	10	-22	15.3	12.6	2.73	16.3	15.8	0.53
Kenny Thomas	45	44	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	0.04	-14	12	-26	15.4	12.4	3.02	16.7	15.5	1.16
Mike Bibby	84	84	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.46	2	-4	6	13.7	14.5	-0.76	16.3	14.2	2.15
John Salmons	78	78	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.38	-4	2	-6	14.1	12.5	1.65	16.2	15.4	0.82
Kevin Martin	87	86	-0.54	0.04	-0.57	-0.48	-2	0	-2	14.0	11.9	2.12	16.1	15.8	0.28

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bruce Bowen	88	87	0.60	-0.10	0.69	0.54	2	0	2	16.3	13.4	2.92	13.8	14.1	-0.33
Tim Duncan	74	74	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.42	4	-2	6	16.2	15.5	0.66	13.8	13.8	-0.03
Tony Parker	71	71	0.41	0.09	0.33	0.38	1	1	0	17.0	13.4	3.53	14.4	12.3	2.10
Fabricio Oberto	59	58	0.41	0.09	0.31	0.32	3	-1	4	16.6	15.2	1.45	14.6	12.7	1.86
Michael Finley	43	43	0.36	0.14	0.23	0.42	-2	4	-6	16.4	15.8	0.62	14.5	13.3	1.23
Beno Udrih	20	20	0.12	0.38	-0.25	0.04	3	-1	4	12.9	16.9	-3.98	13.1	14.0	-0.82
Eric Williams	25	25	0.12	0.38	-0.25	-0.05	6	-4	10	17.8	15.5	2.31	13.7	13.8	-0.17
Francisco Elson	10	11	0.10	0.40	-0.29	-0.01	4	-2	6	14.8	16.2	-1.40	13.2	13.9	-0.70
Matt Bonner	13	14	0.09	0.41	-0.33	-0.00	3	-1	4	15.1	16.2	-1.13	14.1	13.8	0.31
Brent Barry	37	41	-0.03	0.53	-0.55	0.03	-2	4	-6	13.6	17.6	-4.00	12.7	14.6	-1.90
Jacque Vaughn	5	6	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	0.02	-2	4	-6	15.6	16.1	-0.48	9.3	14.1	-4.77
Robert Horry	35	35	-0.20	0.70	-0.89	0.10	-10	12	-22	15.9	16.2	-0.31	13.3	14.1	-0.81

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.5,0.46,0.41,0.39,0.47,0.51,0.47,0.44,0.5,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.63,0.56,0.54,0.56,0.56,0.73,0.71,0.75,0.75,0.82,0.9,0.89,0.91,0.94,0.93,0.84,0.79,0.85,0.81,0.79,0.63,0.68,0.64,0.76,0.71,0.61,0.63,0.57,0.73,1
Game		Similarity Score
WAS 86, SAC 88	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.57,0.55,0.5,0.5,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.48,0.53,0.49,0.52,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.44,0.4,0.53,0.54,0.56,0.56,0.51,0.56,0.63,0.66,0.69,0.75,0.83,0.81,0.81,0.83,0.89,0.92,0.86,0.85,0.81,0.81,0.79,0.74,0.73,0.74,0.6,0.66,0.55,0.64,0.77,0.84,1	92.8%
LAC 104, IND 109	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.5,0.46,0.4,0.38,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.42,0.45,0.48,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.42,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.63,0.76,0.77,0.85,0.87,0.9,0.92,0.91,0.86,0.83,0.81,0.82,0.74,0.84,0.79,0.8,0.58,0.53,0.53,0.47,0.62,0.46,0.53,0.73,1	91.8%
SAS 99, POR 100	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.45,0.5,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.4,0.45,0.51,0.48,0.53,0.58,0.58,0.51,0.6,0.56,0.59,0.59,0.58,0.61,0.61,0.67,0.69,0.71,0.64,0.64,0.73,0.74,0.8,0.72,0.79,0.8,0.75,0.81,0.78,0.82,0.89,0.73,0.7,0.66,0.78,0.62,0.55,0.66,0.74,1	91.5%