NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	99		Excitement	8.0 [231]		MVP	Brandon Roy (POR): +39.9%
Portland Trail Blazers	100		Comeback	1.5 [545]		LVP	Michael Finley (SAS): -13.7%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Roger Mason Jr.	0.32	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.23,0.23,0.32,0.32	0.12	0.20	0.00	7	100%	0.34	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tony Parker	0.24	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.01,0.01,0.13,0.24	0.01	0.20	-0.03	19	57%	0.36	4	-0.12	4	100%	0.06
Matt Bonner	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.01	0.00	2	125%	0.08	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.18,0.18,0.23,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.03,0.03	0.13	-0.10	-0.00	19	64%	0.21	2	-0.18	4	75%	0.01
Kurt Thomas	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	0.00	1	50%	0.01	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.02
Jacque Vaughn	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Bruce Bowen	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Desmon Farmer	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.01	-0.05	0.00	3	62%	0.02	2	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
Ime Udoka	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.09,0.09,0.01,-0.11,-0.11	0.03	-0.14	0.00	5	60%	-0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Finley	-0.14	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,-0.14	0.05	-0.18	0.01	11	64%	-0.08	2	-0.06	3	100%	0.01

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Brandon Roy	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.09,0.12,0.15,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.25,0.25,0.26,0.36,0.4,0.4	0.40	0.12	0.28	-0.00	18	60%	0.42	1	-0.02	7	71%	0.05
LaMarcus Aldridge	0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.07,0,0,0.16	0.15	0.01	0.15	0.01	22	48%	0.19	1	-0.03	4	50%	-0.03
Nicolas Batum	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.06	0.02	-0.00	9	63%	0.11	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.00
Channing Frye	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.04	0.02	-0.02	9	56%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Steve Blake	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.03	0.04	0.01	5	60%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joel Przybilla	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1	75%	0.04	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.02
Travis Outlaw	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	-0.02	0.01	9	46%	-0.02	0	0.00	6	100%	0.04
Sergio Rodriguez	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	3	50%	0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Rudy Fernandez	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.04	-0.07	-0.01	6	37%	-0.07	1	-0.03	4	75%	-0.06

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.8	2.7	34.8	17.8	23.2	3.7	40.2	150.1
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS -4.9%

POR +4.1%

POR +9.1%

POR +35.6%

POR +6.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	POR	NBA	SAS	POR	NBA
this game	16.0	18.1	15.5	115.1	120.5	106.4
season	16.4	16.7		106.6	111.0
opponent	16.0	15.7		105.8	103.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	15.7	15.8	17.1	15.3	16.0
POR	19.3	18.6	16.3	18.2	18.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Michael Finley	61	60	-0.07	-0.43	0.35	-0.37	10	-11	21	16.5	14.8	1.69	17.2	20.5	-3.26
Matt Bonner	22	23	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.15	2	-3	5	17.0	15.7	1.34	17.3	18.4	-1.07
Bruce Bowen	37	38	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	-0.04	-2	1	-3	17.4	15.0	2.42	17.4	18.7	-1.29
Jacque Vaughn	15	15	-0.11	-0.39	0.27	-0.02	-3	2	-5	20.1	15.1	5.01	19.7	17.8	1.97
Desmon Farmer	26	23	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.06	-6	5	-11	15.1	16.4	-1.27	16.7	18.7	-1.97
Ime Udoka	35	33	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.30	1	-2	3	15.2	16.5	-1.35	19.4	17.3	2.11
Tim Duncan	74	71	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	-0.45	4	-5	9	16.3	14.2	2.13	18.8	14.3	4.43
Tony Parker	71	68	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	-0.45	2	-3	5	15.1	20.1	-5.01	17.8	19.7	-1.97
Kurt Thomas	36	34	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	-0.09	-11	10	-21	15.5	16.3	-0.81	18.1	18.1	-0.00
Roger Mason Jr.	53	50	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.41	-2	1	-3	14.9	17.7	-2.80	19.0	16.8	2.21

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
LaMarcus Aldridge	73	76	0.63	-0.13	0.76	0.45	6	-5	11	17.5	22.9	-5.43	16.3	13.5	2.83
Brandon Roy	61	63	0.51	-0.01	0.51	0.45	2	-1	3	17.7	19.4	-1.69	16.5	14.7	1.72
Joel Przybilla	39	44	0.50	0.00	0.49	0.47	1	0	1	19.2	17.2	1.95	16.5	15.5	0.98
Steve Blake	57	59	0.41	0.09	0.31	0.49	-3	4	-7	17.3	19.9	-2.57	16.9	14.1	2.75
Rudy Fernandez	51	53	0.26	0.24	0.01	0.14	4	-3	7	18.0	18.3	-0.36	15.9	16.2	-0.25
Travis Outlaw	57	56	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.24	-2	3	-5	17.8	18.8	-0.94	15.9	16.2	-0.26
Nicolas Batum	38	38	0.10	0.40	-0.31	0.07	1	0	1	18.9	17.4	1.48	15.2	16.7	-1.51
Channing Frye	25	24	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	0.05	-2	3	-5	18.8	17.8	1.03	14.4	16.6	-2.25
Sergio Rodriguez	14	17	-0.06	0.56	-0.63	-0.01	-2	3	-5	22.1	17.3	4.84	13.4	16.7	-3.30

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.45,0.5,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.4,0.45,0.51,0.48,0.53,0.58,0.58,0.51,0.6,0.56,0.59,0.59,0.58,0.61,0.61,0.67,0.69,0.71,0.64,0.64,0.73,0.74,0.8,0.72,0.79,0.8,0.75,0.81,0.78,0.82,0.89,0.73,0.7,0.66,0.78,0.62,0.55,0.66,0.74,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHX 84, NJN 86	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.57,0.5,0.5,0.51,0.47,0.53,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.52,0.56,0.6,0.67,0.65,0.63,0.53,0.64,0.61,0.67,0.64,0.64,0.63,0.6,0.57,0.55,0.64,0.64,0.62,0.65,0.75,0.63,0.67,0.71,0.78,0.8,0.82,0.79,0.68,0.74,0.65,0.67,0.75,0.55,0.68,0.58,1	92.8%
NYK 93, SAS 97	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.55,0.49,0.57,0.53,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.48,0.64,0.67,0.72,0.74,0.7,0.71,0.72,0.73,0.76,0.79,0.84,0.77,0.69,0.73,0.81,0.79,0.7,0.78,0.75,0.8,0.63,0.79,0.71,0.71,0.68,0.64,0.78,0.84,1	92.6%
SAS 93, UTA 97	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.43,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.6,0.6,0.64,0.58,0.6,0.61,0.58,0.56,0.58,0.64,0.56,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.64,0.78,0.81,0.77,0.8,0.78,0.69,0.81,0.75,0.81,0.74,0.75,0.76,0.72,0.7,0.76,0.82,0.76,0.63,0.45,0.74,1	92.6%