NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	116		Excitement	9.0 [142]		MVP	Jordan Crawford (GSW): +47.2%
Denver Nuggets	112		Comeback	2.2 [251]		LVP	Marreese Speights (GSW): -16.7%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jordan Crawford	0.47	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.17,0.17,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.23,0.26,0.27,0.26,0.26,0.21,0.24,0.22,0.18,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.22,0.27,0.36,0.47,0.47,0.47	0.16	0.31	-0.01	28	64%	0.59	3	-0.11	8	87%	0.09
Ognjen Kuzmic	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.04	0.08	-0.00	2	75%	0.12	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Harrison Barnes	0.07	0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.1,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.04,0.07	0.07	0.02	0.01	21	56%	0.18	3	-0.10	12	42%	-0.07
Klay Thompson	0.05	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.07	0.00	0.02	5	80%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Hilton Armstrong	0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	6	53%	0.04	2	-0.03	7	57%	-0.03
Draymond Green	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.09	-0.01	-0.08	0.00	3	33%	-0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Steve Blake	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11	-0.09	-0.03	-0.02	10	36%	-0.02	3	-0.09	2	50%	-0.02
Marreese Speights	-0.17	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,-0.01,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.12	-0.05	-0.01	15	34%	-0.09	3	-0.08	2	50%	-0.03

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Anthony Randolph	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.14,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.3,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.38	0.38	0.20	0.18	-0.00	9	86%	0.38	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Timofey Mozgov	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.02	-0.01	0.01	3	83%	0.07	3	-0.07	6	100%	0.03
Aaron Brooks	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	10	40%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Wilson Chandler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	0.01	5	50%	0.02	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Evan Fournier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.01	-0.05	0.00	11	44%	-0.03	0	0.00	5	100%	0.02
Jan Vesely	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	2	100%	0.03	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Quincy Miller	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,-0.02,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.02	-0.06	0.00	6	43%	-0.03	1	-0.05	2	100%	0.03
Randy Foye	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.02,0.06,0.06,0.16,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.22,0.05,-0.08	-0.08	0.07	-0.12	0.03	21	59%	0.12	5	-0.21	12	75%	0.01
Kenneth Faried	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.18,-0.18,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.14	-0.01	-0.01	17	39%	-0.04	5	-0.11	4	25%	-0.08

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.3	2.0	35.1	15.4	27.9	3.4	41.5	149.7
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW +44.9%

DEN -18.1%

GSW +12.5%

GSW +15.3%

DEN -4.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	DEN	NBA	GSW	DEN	NBA
this game	14.6	11.9	15.1	106.4	103.7	105.2
season	14.2	14.0		105.9	104.5
opponent	14.9	15.3		106.4	102.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	12.9	14.9	15.2	15.5	14.6
DEN	12.8	12.8	11.3	10.8	11.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Hilton Armstrong	72	69	0.59	-0.09	0.69	0.24	12	-8	20	14.7	14.5	0.18	12.4	11.2	1.21
Harrison Barnes	109	108	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.38	4	0	4	14.6	0.0	14.61	11.9	0.0	11.93
Steve Blake	107	107	0.48	0.02	0.45	0.42	2	2	0	14.6	13.0	1.64	11.8	21.0	-9.16
Jordan Crawford	94	92	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.45	-3	7	-10	14.9	12.9	2.02	11.7	13.4	-1.77
Draymond Green	8	8	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.22	2	2	0	14.7	14.6	0.16	6.2	12.4	-6.13
Klay Thompson	17	17	0.16	0.34	-0.18	-0.13	10	-6	16	12.9	14.9	-2.04	13.9	11.6	2.32
Ognjen Kuzmic	70	69	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.40	-9	13	-22	14.5	14.9	-0.41	11.7	12.4	-0.68
Marreese Speights	68	70	-0.01	0.51	-0.53	-0.07	2	2	0	14.7	14.5	0.19	12.4	11.1	1.31

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Anthony Randolph	43	45	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	-0.31	6	-10	16	11.5	12.2	-0.77	14.9	14.4	0.48
Quincy Miller	53	52	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.18	0	-4	4	11.6	12.2	-0.56	14.2	14.9	-0.68
Aaron Brooks	55	56	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.01	-6	2	-8	12.7	11.1	1.56	15.1	14.0	1.11
Evan Fournier	51	51	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.06	-5	1	-6	12.5	11.5	0.99	13.9	15.2	-1.36
Kenneth Faried	86	83	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.41	6	-10	16	11.9	12.1	-0.21	14.7	14.4	0.24
Timofey Mozgov	57	56	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.04	-9	5	-14	12.6	11.1	1.53	14.3	14.9	-0.62
Jan Vesely	30	33	-0.34	-0.17	-0.17	0.02	-12	8	-20	11.3	12.2	-0.82	15.0	14.4	0.52
Wilson Chandler	67	71	-0.41	-0.09	-0.31	-0.52	4	-8	12	11.3	13.0	-1.73	15.0	13.9	1.05
Randy Foye	98	98	-0.50	-0.00	-0.49	-0.38	-4	0	-4	11.8	12.9	-1.07	14.5	15.8	-1.35

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.42,0.39,0.41,0.4,0.36,0.37,0.33,0.26,0.29,0.32,0.28,0.28,0.29,0.25,0.28,0.3,0.34,0.41,0.28,0.25,0.25,0.14,0.12,0.16,0.15,0.24,0.29,0.29,0.22,0.16,0.08,0.12,0.19,0.19,0.34,0.47,0.53,0.42,0.59,0.46,0.47,0.31,0.29,0.33,0.16,0
Game		Similarity Score
NYK 103, MIL 98	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.39,0.36,0.37,0.34,0.32,0.28,0.23,0.24,0.25,0.22,0.22,0.27,0.29,0.31,0.35,0.29,0.34,0.24,0.18,0.11,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.15,0.16,0.16,0.22,0.18,0.23,0.29,0.25,0.42,0.43,0.43,0.48,0.37,0.59,0.47,0.39,0.19,0.28,0.45,0.16,0	92.7%
POR 88, PHI 82	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.47,0.43,0.34,0.35,0.35,0.31,0.3,0.29,0.3,0.32,0.34,0.38,0.38,0.36,0.29,0.37,0.36,0.29,0.34,0.33,0.27,0.27,0.21,0.19,0.14,0.17,0.21,0.18,0.15,0.14,0.15,0.19,0.25,0.26,0.23,0.21,0.24,0.32,0.41,0.4,0.47,0.38,0.29,0.24,0.04,0	91.1%
CHH 90, IND 87	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.42,0.4,0.38,0.42,0.4,0.37,0.32,0.27,0.31,0.27,0.23,0.24,0.3,0.32,0.27,0.35,0.32,0.27,0.29,0.21,0.23,0.14,0.16,0.11,0.18,0.22,0.24,0.21,0.16,0.17,0.28,0.24,0.3,0.29,0.26,0.26,0.3,0.42,0.42,0.36,0.35,0.33,0.25,0.28,0.09,0.04,0	91.1%