NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

New York Knicks	103		Excitement	7.0 [442]		MVP	Joe Smith (MIL): +20.9%
Milwaukee Bucks	98		Comeback	1.4 [559]		LVP	Jerome James (NYK): -12.4%

New York Knicks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jalen Rose	0.19	0,0,0,0.02,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.13,0.13,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.10	0.09	-0.00	12	70%	0.26	2	-0.06	3	100%	0.01
Eddy Curry	0.19	0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.13,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.09	0.09	-0.01	13	57%	0.19	0	0.00	9	89%	0.06
Malik Rose	0.14	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.12,0.04,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.02	0.12	0.00	7	71%	0.22	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Steve Francis	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07	0.03	0.06	0.01	4	69%	0.12	2	-0.05	8	75%	0.02
Jamal Crawford	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.04	0.02	-0.00	9	56%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Channing Frye	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	-0.00	5	60%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Quentin Richardson	0.01	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.00	11	58%	0.06	3	-0.05	9	44%	-0.05
Jackie Butler	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Stephon Marbury	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.15,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.01	-0.00	9	40%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.14
Jerome James	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.10	-0.04	-0.02	1	25%	-0.01	4	-0.11	2	50%	-0.02

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Joe Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.32,0.21,0.21	0.21	0.13	0.08	0.01	12	70%	0.21	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Jamaal Magloire	0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.05	0.03	0.00	9	64%	0.10	1	-0.02	4	50%	0.00
Bobby Simmons	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02	0.02	0.03	0.01	0.02	11	50%	0.02	0	0.00	6	83%	0.01
Mo Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.06,0.01,0.06,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.14,0.14,0.03,0.02	0.02	0.03	-0.01	-0.01	14	59%	0.12	3	-0.09	1	100%	0.01
Charlie Bell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	5	58%	0.05	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
T.J. Ford	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	4	25%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andrew Bogut	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	4	25%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Redd	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07	-0.07	0.02	-0.07	0.02	20	53%	0.04	3	-0.11	3	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.2	2.3	28.5	16.4	24.8	2.0	42.4	143.6
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

NYK +49.1%

MIL -2.8%

NYK +14.9%

MIL -13.9%

NYK +2.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	NYK	MIL	NBA	NYK	MIL	NBA
this game	16.4	15.4	15.6	112.0	110.1	104.4
season	15.7	15.5		102.1	104.6
opponent	15.5	15.4		106.0	108.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
NYK	16.8	16.3	17.6	15.0	16.4
MIL	16.7	15.6	13.7	15.6	15.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

New York Knicks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Eddy Curry	61	60	0.72	-0.22	0.94	0.31	14	-9	23	17.3	14.7	2.55	17.1	11.8	5.31
Quentin Richardson	70	70	0.68	-0.18	0.86	0.24	15	-10	25	17.2	14.1	3.08	16.2	12.3	3.95
Stephon Marbury	67	65	0.58	-0.08	0.65	0.28	10	-5	15	16.8	15.4	1.37	15.7	14.5	1.25
Jalen Rose	61	56	0.46	0.04	0.43	0.02	15	-10	25	16.4	16.5	-0.12	16.3	13.8	2.52
Malik Rose	49	49	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.36	3	2	1	17.1	15.7	1.38	16.1	14.4	1.72
Steve Francis	47	47	0.13	0.37	-0.25	0.30	-6	11	-17	15.0	17.9	-2.85	14.1	16.8	-2.68
Jackie Butler	9	8	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	0.03	-2	7	-9	16.7	16.4	0.26	12.9	15.6	-2.74
Jamal Crawford	42	39	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	0.08	-5	10	-15	15.9	16.9	-1.02	13.7	16.7	-3.03
Channing Frye	35	32	-0.19	0.69	-0.87	0.14	-11	16	-27	14.8	17.4	-2.64	13.2	16.6	-3.31
Jerome James	19	19	-0.23	0.73	-0.95	0.01	-8	13	-21	15.7	16.6	-0.95	12.2	16.2	-4.08

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Charlie Bell	43	48	0.14	-0.64	0.79	-0.09	8	-13	21	13.2	17.4	-4.14	15.5	17.5	-2.00
Joe Smith	46	48	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.24	7	-12	19	13.3	17.6	-4.37	15.6	17.3	-1.65
T.J. Ford	39	40	-0.11	-0.39	0.29	-0.02	-3	-2	-1	16.1	14.8	1.26	17.8	15.3	2.50
Andrew Bogut	56	57	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	-0.13	-5	0	-5	15.7	14.7	1.02	16.2	16.8	-0.64
Jamaal Magloire	60	61	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.40	-3	-2	-1	16.8	12.5	4.28	17.8	13.8	3.96
Mo Williams	65	67	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.32	-8	3	-11	15.0	16.4	-1.37	15.7	18.3	-2.53
Bobby Simmons	74	75	-0.59	0.09	-0.67	-0.23	-12	7	-19	15.7	13.7	2.05	16.3	16.9	-0.62
Michael Redd	62	64	-0.60	0.10	-0.69	-0.33	-9	4	-13	16.3	13.3	2.92	16.7	15.9	0.73

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.39,0.36,0.37,0.34,0.32,0.28,0.23,0.24,0.25,0.22,0.22,0.27,0.29,0.31,0.35,0.29,0.34,0.24,0.18,0.11,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.15,0.16,0.16,0.22,0.18,0.23,0.29,0.25,0.42,0.43,0.43,0.48,0.37,0.59,0.47,0.39,0.19,0.28,0.45,0.16,0
Game		Similarity Score
GSW 116, DEN 112	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.42,0.39,0.41,0.4,0.36,0.37,0.33,0.26,0.29,0.32,0.28,0.28,0.29,0.25,0.28,0.3,0.34,0.41,0.28,0.25,0.25,0.14,0.12,0.16,0.15,0.24,0.29,0.29,0.22,0.16,0.08,0.12,0.19,0.19,0.34,0.47,0.53,0.42,0.59,0.46,0.47,0.31,0.29,0.33,0.16,0	92.7%
NOH 76, UTA 75	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.38,0.39,0.37,0.41,0.41,0.43,0.39,0.4,0.44,0.37,0.34,0.34,0.4,0.41,0.4,0.35,0.36,0.29,0.26,0.21,0.2,0.12,0.11,0.12,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.12,0.25,0.24,0.3,0.29,0.42,0.43,0.38,0.42,0.37,0.34,0.46,0.39,0.32,0.28,0.45,0.26,0	91.6%
MEM 82, HOU 78	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.44,0.45,0.41,0.4,0.37,0.33,0.32,0.32,0.26,0.26,0.34,0.29,0.26,0.35,0.32,0.25,0.21,0.14,0.11,0.16,0.19,0.15,0.15,0.17,0.21,0.23,0.18,0.19,0.2,0.3,0.28,0.3,0.27,0.38,0.42,0.42,0.3,0.39,0.18,0.07,0.11,0.32,0.27,0	91.4%