NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	111		Excitement	9.3 [109]		MVP	Kevin Durant (OKC): +32.0%
Oklahoma City Thunder	112		Comeback	19.2 [167]		LVP	Brandon Jennings (DET): -32.2%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	0.24	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.12,0.11,0.15,0.19,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.19,0.19,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.2,0.27,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.34,0.34,0.33,0.24	0.22	0.02	0.00	19	70%	0.24	0	0.00	5	60%	-0.01
Kyle Singler	0.22	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.15,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.16	0.07	0.00	9	83%	0.26	1	-0.04	6	100%	0.03
Andre Drummond	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.06	0.05	0.01	16	55%	0.11	0	0.00	8	50%	-0.04
Peyton Siva	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.03	-0.00	4	50%	0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jonas Jerebko	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.01	-0.00	3	83%	0.06	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Tony Mitchell	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gigi Datome	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Greg Monroe	-0.14	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.01,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.03,-0.14	-0.06	-0.08	0.00	19	47%	0.11	4	-0.25	9	44%	-0.08
Brandon Jennings	-0.32	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.16,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.22,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.22,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.19,-0.22,-0.32	-0.22	-0.12	-0.02	9	29%	-0.10	8	-0.22	3	67%	-0.01

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Durant	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.05,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.2,0.19,0.19,0.22,0.2,0.2,0.16,0.21,0.32	0.32	0.10	0.21	-0.01	30	56%	0.44	3	-0.12	15	87%	0.04
Reggie Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.07	0.10	-0.04	0.00	11	68%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nick Collison	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.01	0.00	3	67%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Caron Butler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Derek Fisher	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.01	-0.00	6	43%	0.01	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Steven Adams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Kendrick Perkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	0.01	3	50%	0.00	1	-0.04	4	75%	0.01
Thabo Sefolosha	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.03	0.02	7	44%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Russell Westbrook	0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.06,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.09,-0.05,0.06,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	15	49%	0.05	4	-0.12	15	80%	0.06
Serge Ibaka	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.07	-0.00	0.00	9	53%	0.04	5	-0.12	1	0%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.3	2.0	29.1	14.7	30.3	1.8	40.1	143.3
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET -36.0%

OKC +20.9%

OKC +29.4%

OKC +16.8%

OKC +18.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	OKC	NBA	DET	OKC	NBA
this game	16.3	13.1	15.1	113.3	114.3	105.2
season	15.0	14.4		104.7	107.8
opponent	15.4	15.0		102.9	108.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	16.2	16.5	14.1	18.7	16.3
OKC	13.2	13.5	14.2	11.3	13.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Andre Drummond	57	57	0.41	-0.91	1.33	0.15	9	-10	19	15.5	17.5	-2.03	14.2	11.5	2.70
Tony Mitchell	11	11	0.10	-0.60	0.71	-0.01	4	-5	9	16.6	16.3	0.37	15.8	12.7	3.08
Gigi Datome	18	17	0.10	-0.60	0.70	0.01	3	-4	7	16.4	16.3	0.17	15.4	12.6	2.75
Peyton Siva	34	32	-0.02	-0.48	0.45	0.18	-7	6	-13	19.1	14.8	4.35	14.1	12.6	1.46
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	89	90	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	-0.55	6	-7	13	15.8	21.6	-5.78	13.2	11.5	1.72
Brandon Jennings	73	74	-0.60	0.10	-0.71	-0.57	-1	0	-1	15.6	18.3	-2.65	12.5	14.9	-2.43
Greg Monroe	77	79	-0.70	0.20	-0.90	-0.49	-7	6	-13	16.2	16.6	-0.40	12.7	14.6	-1.86
Kyle Singler	80	80	-0.70	0.20	-0.90	-0.49	-7	6	-13	16.1	17.2	-1.05	12.3	16.6	-4.32
Jonas Jerebko	51	50	-0.72	0.22	-0.94	-0.57	-5	4	-9	17.6	14.9	2.63	12.3	13.9	-1.68

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Serge Ibaka	67	69	1.03	-0.53	1.55	0.59	15	-14	29	12.0	15.4	-3.37	15.7	17.8	-2.16
Thabo Sefolosha	55	56	0.73	-0.23	0.97	0.47	9	-8	17	11.5	15.2	-3.71	15.8	17.0	-1.26
Russell Westbrook	69	70	0.73	-0.23	0.96	0.52	7	-6	13	12.6	14.1	-1.50	16.4	16.1	0.28
Kevin Durant	93	92	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.45	3	-2	5	13.0	14.8	-1.81	16.3	16.5	-0.21
Derek Fisher	32	33	0.32	0.18	0.15	0.27	2	-1	3	12.2	13.5	-1.23	17.6	15.6	2.01
Kendrick Perkins	35	35	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.25	-2	3	-5	13.5	12.8	0.67	15.3	16.9	-1.54
Caron Butler	36	36	-0.12	0.62	-0.74	0.12	-8	9	-17	14.7	12.2	2.51	16.9	15.9	1.01
Nick Collison	30	29	-0.28	0.78	-1.06	0.01	-10	11	-21	14.8	12.3	2.48	16.3	16.3	-0.04
Steven Adams	21	20	-0.31	0.81	-1.11	-0.10	-7	8	-15	14.8	12.6	2.20	16.3	16.3	-0.01
Reggie Jackson	52	50	-0.34	0.84	-1.18	-0.22	-4	5	-9	14.4	11.6	2.73	17.1	15.5	1.58

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.58,0.62,0.57,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.44,0.46,0.38,0.44,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.37,0.27,0.34,0.36,0.44,0.43,0.5,0.45,0.51,0.55,0.42,0.42,0.45,0.48,0.45,0.37,0.33,0.28,0.19,0.15,0.12,0.21,0.28,0.2,0.11,0.1,0.14,0.11,0.06,0.27,1
Game		Similarity Score
POR 104, DEN 105	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.49,0.5,0.5,0.55,0.57,0.55,0.49,0.51,0.42,0.46,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.51,0.46,0.44,0.41,0.41,0.36,0.39,0.49,0.54,0.58,0.45,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.45,0.38,0.24,0.26,0.25,0.19,0.15,0.12,0.17,0.15,0.13,0.11,0.09,0.25,0.16,0.29,0.15,1	92.1%
CLE 90, MIL 91	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.49,0.5,0.47,0.53,0.56,0.49,0.4,0.47,0.42,0.35,0.34,0.36,0.4,0.38,0.42,0.39,0.42,0.39,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.43,0.45,0.36,0.36,0.29,0.32,0.35,0.43,0.27,0.23,0.28,0.15,0.3,0.29,0.29,0.23,0.11,0.06,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.1,0.16,1	92.0%
WAS 95, MIN 97	0.5,0.49,0.53,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.43,0.35,0.32,0.35,0.3,0.34,0.36,0.38,0.37,0.35,0.36,0.26,0.36,0.39,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.45,0.48,0.55,0.45,0.38,0.22,0.37,0.37,0.29,0.34,0.3,0.18,0.11,0.12,0.13,0.16,0.17,0.15,0.07,0.03,0.17,1	91.7%