NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Portland Trail Blazers	104		Excitement	9.1 [135]		MVP	Zach Randolph (POR): +31.9%
Denver Nuggets	105		Comeback	18.7 [103]		LVP	Ruben Patterson (POR): -35.6%

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Zach Randolph	0.32	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.32,0.32	0.07	0.21	-0.04	20	61%	0.43	4	-0.11	6	100%	0.06
Joel Przybilla	0.06	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.00	0.00	5	75%	0.10	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.02
Sebastian Telfair	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.11,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.01	0.07	-0.05	0.01	8	87%	0.07	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Travis Outlaw	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	4	45%	0.01	1	-0.03	3	33%	-0.03
Theo Ratliff	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.01	-0.00	4	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Viktor Khryapa	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	0.01	1	50%	-0.01	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Jarrett Jack	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.08	-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	6	54%	0.03	3	-0.11	1	100%	0.01
Juan Dixon	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.19,0.19,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.07,0.07,-0.09	0.05	-0.12	0.01	11	59%	0.07	1	-0.16	0	0%	0.00
Steve Blake	-0.10	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.1,-0.1	-0.01	-0.09	0.01	7	67%	-0.01	3	-0.09	1	100%	0.01
Ruben Patterson	-0.36	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.11,-0.36	-0.07	-0.31	-0.02	14	44%	-0.30	3	-0.05	4	50%	-0.02

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Andre Miller	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,0.24	0.24	-0.10	0.34	0.00	10	37%	0.31	3	-0.07	7	29%	-0.13
Earl Boykins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.13	0.04	0.00	10	77%	0.17	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Carmelo Anthony	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.09	0.03	0.01	22	53%	0.12	1	-0.01	18	83%	0.01
Greg Buckner	0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.05	0.02	0.01	4	67%	0.06	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.03
Eduardo Najera	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.03	0.04	-0.00	5	43%	0.03	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.09
Francisco Elson	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	-0.01	0.02	7	50%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.05
Marcus Camby	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.01,0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.14,-0.04	-0.04	0.03	-0.06	0.02	15	60%	0.20	3	-0.25	5	100%	0.07
Earl Watson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.07	-0.04	-0.00	4	25%	-0.05	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.3	2.6	27.8	15.8	27.0	2.5	41.3	142.3
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +41.9%

DEN +3.4%

POR -36.4%

DEN +32.5%

DEN +8.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	POR	DEN	NBA	POR	DEN	NBA
this game	16.8	13.6	15.6	109.5	111.7	104.4
season	16.6	14.4		99.4	103.5
opponent	15.9	15.7		103.5	109.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
POR	15.9	17.8	15.9	17.8	16.8
DEN	14.1	15.0	13.4	12.2	13.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Joel Przybilla	47	46	0.35	-0.85	1.21	0.12	8	-9	17	16.2	17.4	-1.25	14.0	13.3	0.75
Zach Randolph	80	81	0.28	-0.78	1.06	0.14	5	-6	11	16.8	16.7	0.18	13.8	12.4	1.45
Travis Outlaw	30	31	-0.02	-0.48	0.47	-0.02	0	-1	1	16.6	16.9	-0.27	15.1	12.9	2.22
Sebastian Telfair	44	45	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.31	8	-9	17	16.5	17.1	-0.68	15.2	12.2	3.00
Ruben Patterson	43	39	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.32	8	-9	17	16.2	17.4	-1.20	13.9	13.4	0.49
Viktor Khryapa	27	28	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	0.05	-8	7	-15	17.5	16.5	0.97	12.4	14.2	-1.72
Juan Dixon	43	42	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.45	0	-1	1	17.9	15.9	1.94	12.5	14.5	-2.01
Jarrett Jack	56	54	-0.68	0.18	-0.86	-0.48	-7	6	-13	16.4	17.5	-1.09	14.1	12.9	1.20
Steve Blake	57	56	-0.79	0.29	-1.08	-0.50	-10	9	-19	17.0	16.6	0.36	12.0	16.0	-4.01
Theo Ratliff	48	48	-0.85	0.35	-1.21	-0.59	-9	8	-17	17.4	16.2	1.25	13.3	14.0	-0.75

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Carmelo Anthony	79	81	0.70	-0.20	0.90	0.46	8	-7	15	13.3	15.6	-2.33	16.8	16.7	0.13
Marcus Camby	72	74	0.67	-0.17	0.85	0.53	5	-4	9	14.0	12.4	1.60	16.6	17.6	-1.02
Eduardo Najera	64	63	0.61	-0.11	0.71	0.55	2	-1	3	12.5	16.1	-3.57	16.6	17.2	-0.60
Andre Miller	77	76	0.53	-0.03	0.57	0.53	0	1	-1	13.7	13.3	0.42	16.8	16.8	-0.03
Earl Boykins	54	56	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.54	-4	5	-9	13.2	14.2	-1.06	17.2	16.2	1.00
Greg Buckner	40	39	0.08	0.42	-0.34	-0.07	5	-4	9	14.2	13.2	1.06	16.2	17.2	-1.00
Earl Watson	32	33	-0.23	0.73	-0.97	-0.06	-6	7	-13	14.4	13.3	1.12	16.8	16.8	-0.05
Francisco Elson	52	53	-0.28	0.78	-1.06	-0.13	-5	6	-11	14.5	12.5	1.97	17.4	16.1	1.26

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.49,0.5,0.5,0.55,0.57,0.55,0.49,0.51,0.42,0.46,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.51,0.46,0.44,0.41,0.41,0.36,0.39,0.49,0.54,0.58,0.45,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.45,0.38,0.24,0.26,0.25,0.19,0.15,0.12,0.17,0.15,0.13,0.11,0.09,0.25,0.16,0.29,0.15,1
Game		Similarity Score
DET 111, OKC 112	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.58,0.62,0.57,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.44,0.46,0.38,0.44,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.37,0.27,0.34,0.36,0.44,0.43,0.5,0.45,0.51,0.55,0.42,0.42,0.45,0.48,0.45,0.37,0.33,0.28,0.19,0.15,0.12,0.21,0.28,0.2,0.11,0.1,0.14,0.11,0.06,0.27,1	92.1%
TOR 97, WAS 98	0.5,0.49,0.53,0.55,0.57,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.43,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.39,0.42,0.44,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.41,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.44,0.33,0.21,0.15,0.13,0.15,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.09,0.25,0.36,0.23,0.26,1	91.8%
NYK 87, CLE 91	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.5,0.42,0.43,0.45,0.48,0.43,0.42,0.45,0.5,0.47,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.59,0.58,0.57,0.55,0.45,0.45,0.42,0.29,0.38,0.34,0.18,0.1,0.12,0.22,0.13,0.18,0.14,0.15,0.14,0.12,0.09,0.19,0.28,0.43,0.42,1	91.2%