NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Brooklyn Nets	88		Excitement	7.9 [273]		MVP	Marcus Thornton (BKN): +46.7%
Miami Heat	87		Comeback	2.2 [321]		LVP	Deron Williams (BKN): -22.2%

Brooklyn Nets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Marcus Thornton	0.47	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.15,0.15,0.22,0.22,0.47,0.47	0.11	0.36	0.00	8	100%	0.55	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Mason Plumlee	0.21	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.21	0.05	0.17	0.00	6	67%	0.21	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Paul Pierce	0.11	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.05	0.05	-0.01	8	74%	0.23	3	-0.12	3	100%	0.02
Mirza Teletovic	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.08	0.00	-0.02	8	65%	0.10	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Joe Johnson	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,-0.01,0.09,0.02	0.05	-0.01	0.02	17	56%	0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Andrei Kirilenko	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	0.00	0	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Alan Anderson	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.05	0.03	-0.01	6	44%	0.04	2	-0.05	4	25%	-0.04
Shaun Livingston	-0.14	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.09	-0.05	-0.00	6	33%	-0.03	3	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Deron Williams	-0.22	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22	-0.10	-0.13	-0.00	9	36%	-0.15	3	-0.07	4	25%	-0.17

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
LeBron James	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.03,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.09	0.09	0.09	0.00	0.00	16	63%	0.16	3	-0.07	14	79%	0.04
Toney Douglas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.00	5	60%	0.06	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Shane Battier	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	0.00	0.01	2	75%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ray Allen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.00	-0.00	5	60%	0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Norris Cole	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.01	-0.02	-0.00	9	56%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Rashard Lewis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.04	-0.02	7	64%	0.10	2	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Mario Chalmers	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.02	-0.00	8	44%	0.02	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Chris Andersen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	4	50%	0.02	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Chris Bosh	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.09,-0.09,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.19,-0.1	-0.10	-0.05	-0.06	-0.01	13	41%	-0.02	2	-0.08	3	67%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.5	3.4	32.5	19.4	25.2	3.7	27.7	136.4
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BKN +84.4%

MIA -26.3%

BKN +3.2%

MIA -10.8%

MIA -0.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BKN	MIA	NBA	BKN	MIA	NBA
this game	17.0	16.5	15.1	102.3	101.2	105.2
season	15.7	15.6		105.1	109.7
opponent	15.8	15.5		105.1	106.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BKN	17.3	16.6	16.8	17.2	17.0
MIA	16.2	15.4	17.5	17.1	16.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Brooklyn Nets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Marcus Thornton	50	50	0.70	-0.20	0.91	0.47	8	-7	15	16.6	17.4	-0.78	16.6	16.4	0.18
Deron Williams	62	62	0.62	-0.12	0.74	0.41	7	-6	13	16.9	17.2	-0.34	16.1	17.7	-1.64
Paul Pierce	59	58	0.59	-0.09	0.69	0.48	4	-3	7	17.4	16.0	1.46	16.0	17.5	-1.50
Mason Plumlee	55	55	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.52	1	0	1	17.2	16.5	0.65	16.0	17.5	-1.55
Joe Johnson	59	59	0.54	-0.04	0.57	0.48	2	-1	3	17.2	16.5	0.65	16.1	17.4	-1.34
Andrei Kirilenko	19	19	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	-0.01	0	1	-1	15.9	17.3	-1.31	16.7	16.5	0.27
Mirza Teletovic	39	40	-0.14	0.64	-0.77	-0.05	-3	4	-7	16.4	17.4	-0.97	17.9	15.3	2.57
Shaun Livingston	49	50	-0.17	0.67	-0.83	0.07	-8	9	-17	17.6	16.2	1.41	17.6	15.1	2.48
Alan Anderson	38	37	-0.19	0.69	-0.89	-0.02	-6	7	-13	16.4	17.4	-0.93	16.5	16.6	-0.11

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Norris Cole	45	44	0.16	-0.66	0.82	0.10	2	-3	5	16.5	16.5	-0.03	16.7	17.2	-0.49
Chris Andersen	35	35	0.15	-0.65	0.80	0.06	3	-4	7	16.0	16.9	-0.93	16.1	17.6	-1.53
Shane Battier	37	37	0.08	-0.58	0.66	0.02	2	-3	5	16.0	16.9	-0.87	17.2	16.8	0.35
Toney Douglas	42	42	0.02	-0.52	0.54	-0.01	1	-2	3	16.9	16.2	0.65	17.5	16.5	0.95
Chris Bosh	63	64	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.43	3	-4	7	17.0	15.3	1.66	17.4	15.8	1.54
Ray Allen	42	43	-0.46	-0.04	-0.41	-0.52	2	-3	5	15.2	17.7	-2.51	16.1	17.8	-1.70
LeBron James	67	67	-0.55	0.05	-0.61	-0.49	-2	1	-3	16.1	18.1	-2.03	17.0	17.0	-0.04
Rashard Lewis	49	49	-0.58	0.08	-0.66	-0.49	-3	2	-5	16.9	16.0	0.87	16.8	17.2	-0.35
Mario Chalmers	50	49	-0.98	0.48	-1.46	-0.60	-13	12	-25	17.8	14.8	2.95	17.7	16.1	1.60

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.47,0.47,0.41,0.37,0.38,0.38,0.3,0.26,0.26,0.3,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.3,0.34,0.46,0.39,0.36,0.36,0.5,0.38,0.31,0.36,0.33,0.39,0.48,0.62,0.62,0.56,0.48,0.52,0.62,0.62,0.57,0.63,0.37,0.53,0.59,0.66,0.69,0.54,0.67,0.08,0
Game		Similarity Score
ATL 87, IND 85	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.42,0.42,0.41,0.39,0.39,0.41,0.41,0.4,0.35,0.42,0.37,0.32,0.3,0.31,0.33,0.37,0.37,0.36,0.31,0.23,0.33,0.4,0.46,0.35,0.31,0.3,0.3,0.36,0.45,0.55,0.55,0.48,0.44,0.48,0.46,0.52,0.47,0.38,0.42,0.53,0.54,0.61,0.69,0.55,0.68,0.31,0	91.8%
LAL 111, DEN 107	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.43,0.46,0.44,0.34,0.34,0.35,0.45,0.4,0.38,0.37,0.32,0.4,0.38,0.35,0.31,0.32,0.36,0.36,0.29,0.25,0.26,0.42,0.42,0.43,0.42,0.48,0.39,0.32,0.55,0.59,0.56,0.63,0.6,0.5,0.52,0.47,0.43,0.37,0.41,0.54,0.67,0.79,0.71,0.57,0.09,0	91.4%
OKC 117, PHX 113	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.47,0.42,0.38,0.37,0.39,0.37,0.34,0.4,0.37,0.3,0.24,0.23,0.19,0.22,0.25,0.21,0.22,0.33,0.31,0.36,0.49,0.34,0.28,0.36,0.42,0.45,0.35,0.48,0.45,0.44,0.48,0.6,0.5,0.52,0.57,0.38,0.47,0.41,0.34,0.47,0.61,0.64,0.68,0.16,0	89.9%