NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	93		Excitement	8.0 [265]		MVP	Vince Carter (DAL): +24.8%
Sacramento Kings	91		Comeback	2.9 [674]		LVP	Ray McCallum (SAC): -21.5%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Vince Carter	0.25	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0,0.12,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25	0.07	0.17	-0.01	13	63%	0.31	2	-0.06	1	100%	0.00
Monta Ellis	0.18	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.11,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0.06,0.06,0.16,0.18	0.02	0.16	-0.01	19	56%	0.29	4	-0.11	3	100%	0.02
Jose Calderon	0.15	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.10	0.05	0.00	10	70%	0.15	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jae Crowder	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Wayne Ellington	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shawn Marion	-0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01	-0.04	0.03	-0.00	8	39%	0.02	1	-0.03	2	0%	-0.06
Brandan Wright	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	4	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dirk Nowitzki	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	17	39%	-0.04	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.02
Samuel Dalembert	-0.09	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.03	-0.06	0.00	6	50%	0.01	2	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Devin Harris	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.06	-0.05	-0.00	6	21%	-0.11	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
DeJuan Blair	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.03	-0.08	0.00	6	43%	-0.05	1	-0.06	2	0%	-0.08

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rudy Gay	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.22	0.22	0.18	0.08	0.05	18	71%	0.28	2	-0.06	9	78%	0.01
Travis Outlaw	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.13	0.13	0.01	0.08	-0.04	5	60%	0.16	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jared Cunningham	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Evans	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jason Thompson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	3	50%	-0.00	1	-0.02	4	25%	-0.04
Ben McLemore	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	0.01	-0.02	9	26%	-0.03	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.02
Derrick Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.01	-0.05	0.00	3	62%	0.00	1	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
DeMarcus Cousins	0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.04,-0.09	-0.09	0.02	-0.09	0.02	23	56%	0.04	4	-0.13	4	100%	0.02
Ray McCallum	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.15,-0.15,-0.21,-0.23,-0.22	-0.22	-0.11	-0.10	0.00	12	33%	-0.08	3	-0.14	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.3	2.6	27.2	15.6	24.8	2.4	35.5	133.5
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +29.4%

SAC -12.5%

DAL +15.6%

DAL +10.4%

DAL +7.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	SAC	NBA	DAL	SAC	NBA
this game	16.5	16.2	15.1	105.7	103.4	105.2
season	15.3	15.4		109.0	104.5
opponent	14.7	15.0		107.1	107.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	17.6	17.2	14.5	16.8	16.5
SAC	15.1	14.9	19.1	15.9	16.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Monta Ellis	74	74	0.73	-0.23	0.95	0.43	10	-8	18	15.4	22.6	-7.28	16.5	14.8	1.69
Shawn Marion	63	64	0.72	-0.22	0.94	0.43	10	-8	18	15.6	18.8	-3.18	16.2	16.3	-0.12
Samuel Dalembert	45	46	0.56	-0.06	0.63	0.27	10	-8	18	15.3	17.8	-2.57	17.1	15.2	1.89
Jose Calderon	58	56	0.49	0.01	0.49	0.35	5	-3	8	15.7	18.2	-2.54	16.6	15.6	1.01
Vince Carter	43	44	0.41	0.09	0.33	0.03	13	-11	24	16.5	16.6	-0.07	16.5	15.9	0.68
DeJuan Blair	33	29	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.06	0	2	-2	17.5	15.9	1.54	16.3	16.2	0.16
Dirk Nowitzki	62	59	0.05	0.45	-0.39	0.29	-8	10	-18	17.7	13.7	3.96	16.4	15.7	0.72
Wayne Ellington	0	1	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.01	0	2	-2	0.0	16.5	-16.52	2.0	16.4	-14.37
Devin Harris	30	32	0.01	0.49	-0.49	0.09	-3	5	-8	18.2	15.7	2.54	15.6	16.6	-1.01
Brandan Wright	10	12	-0.24	0.74	-0.97	0.06	-10	12	-22	19.0	16.2	2.79	13.2	16.7	-3.42
Jae Crowder	22	23	-0.31	0.81	-1.12	0.19	-17	19	-36	19.8	15.4	4.33	14.4	16.8	-2.45

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Derrick Williams	25	24	0.11	-0.61	0.72	-0.01	4	-6	10	15.3	16.6	-1.29	17.6	16.1	1.52
Jared Cunningham	2	1	0.01	-0.51	0.52	0.10	-3	1	-4	1.0	16.6	-15.56	2.0	16.7	-14.69
Reggie Evans	32	32	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	0.14	-6	4	-10	16.7	15.9	0.71	17.6	15.9	1.63
Ben McLemore	52	53	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.04	-3	1	-4	16.0	16.4	-0.41	15.8	17.6	-1.79
Jason Thompson	49	47	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	-0.45	8	-10	18	15.9	16.6	-0.74	17.5	15.4	2.12
Rudy Gay	82	82	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.44	1	-3	4	16.2	16.5	-0.32	16.7	13.8	2.89
Travis Outlaw	43	43	-0.47	-0.03	-0.43	-0.47	0	-2	2	16.3	16.1	0.24	16.3	16.7	-0.34
Ray McCallum	86	88	-0.49	-0.01	-0.47	-0.46	-1	-1	0	16.6	1.0	15.56	16.5	0.0	16.52
DeMarcus Cousins	69	70	-0.87	0.37	-1.25	-0.58	-10	8	-18	16.6	14.6	2.01	15.6	20.0	-4.37

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.46,0.48,0.52,0.47,0.51,0.53,0.45,0.36,0.38,0.37,0.4,0.42,0.47,0.53,0.58,0.58,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.41,0.54,0.54,0.66,0.74,0.69,0.67,0.58,0.58,0.48,0.62,0.59,0.6,0.48,0.38,0.22,0.47,0.43,0.47,0.53,0.59,0.53,0.24,0.15,0.15,0.02,0
Game		Similarity Score
SEA 114, ATL 109	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.4,0.4,0.36,0.4,0.43,0.45,0.49,0.47,0.37,0.34,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.45,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.47,0.54,0.56,0.59,0.51,0.58,0.6,0.58,0.55,0.58,0.62,0.55,0.59,0.66,0.67,0.6,0.54,0.43,0.53,0.43,0.37,0.36,0.54,0.53,0.46,0.16,0.15,0.04,0	91.7%
TOR 102, DAL 91	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.43,0.44,0.4,0.37,0.35,0.38,0.31,0.32,0.35,0.42,0.47,0.53,0.56,0.63,0.58,0.61,0.62,0.51,0.58,0.56,0.51,0.58,0.6,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.56,0.44,0.36,0.46,0.38,0.48,0.47,0.53,0.53,0.59,0.33,0.15,0.02,0.06,0,0	91.5%
PHI 100, IND 96	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.42,0.43,0.45,0.43,0.41,0.37,0.31,0.33,0.32,0.35,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.56,0.58,0.6,0.61,0.58,0.59,0.54,0.54,0.57,0.66,0.73,0.67,0.64,0.68,0.62,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.4,0.38,0.22,0.33,0.42,0.37,0.53,0.54,0.46,0.45,0.37,0.06,0.09,0	91.5%