NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Sacramento Kings	89		Excitement	5.4 [754]		MVP	Josh Smith (DET): +11.3%
Detroit Pistons	99		Comeback	2.2 [663]		LVP	DeMarcus Cousins (SAC): -21.8%

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Derrick Williams	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.00	0.01	4	83%	0.08	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.00
Ray McCallum	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.08	0.00	0.06	5	90%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Quincy Acy	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ben McLemore	-0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.00	-0.03	0.00	9	50%	-0.02	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Jason Thompson	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	3	27%	-0.04	0	0.00	5	20%	-0.07
Reggie Evans	-0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	6	50%	0.01	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Isaiah Thomas	-0.07	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.02	-0.01	15	49%	0.03	5	-0.11	9	78%	0.00
Travis Outlaw	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.11	-0.02	-0.02	6	0%	-0.09	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Rudy Gay	-0.12	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.04	-0.07	0.01	21	42%	-0.12	1	-0.00	6	67%	-0.03
DeMarcus Cousins	-0.22	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.19,-0.19,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.22,-0.22,-0.23,-0.23,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22	-0.16	-0.07	-0.01	15	36%	-0.10	5	-0.12	6	50%	0.01

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Josh Smith	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.11	0.02	0.02	17	63%	0.16	2	-0.04	4	50%	-0.03
Rodney Stuckey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.11,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.11	-0.01	0.00	16	61%	0.10	0	0.00	6	100%	0.03
Andre Drummond	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.05	0.04	0.03	9	68%	0.12	2	-0.06	4	75%	0.00
Jonas Jerebko	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.00	-0.00	4	62%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Singler	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.01	-0.04	0.02	10	52%	-0.01	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
Brandon Jennings	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.08	-0.00	-0.01	10	23%	-0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Greg Monroe	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	0.00	6	43%	-0.03	3	-0.04	2	100%	0.00
Will Bynum	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.14,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.14	-0.02	-0.05	14	29%	-0.07	3	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.7	2.0	31.1	15.8	25.3	2.7	33.4	135.9
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +40.4%

DET +5.8%

SAC -6.8%

DET +9.7%

DET +0.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAC	DET	NBA	SAC	DET	NBA
this game	14.9	15.1	15.1	92.7	103.1	105.2
season	15.4	15.0		104.5	104.7
opponent	15.0	14.7		108.4	107.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAC	15.2	15.8	15.8	12.4	14.9
DET	14.8	13.0	14.2	18.9	15.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Quincy Acy	11	11	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	0.07	-5	-5	0	16.3	14.7	1.60	12.6	15.5	-2.83
Ray McCallum	24	24	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	-0.08	-1	-9	8	14.5	15.0	-0.42	16.2	14.8	1.42
Reggie Evans	44	46	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.10	-2	-8	6	16.0	13.9	2.16	14.2	16.0	-1.87
Travis Outlaw	46	46	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.14	-4	-6	2	13.6	16.0	-2.47	16.3	14.0	2.31
Rudy Gay	79	79	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.23	-1	-9	8	14.8	15.1	-0.25	15.1	15.2	-0.11
Jason Thompson	30	28	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.00	-9	-1	-8	13.8	15.3	-1.48	14.8	15.3	-0.46
DeMarcus Cousins	74	74	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.27	0	-10	10	15.1	13.9	1.23	15.2	15.0	0.19
Derrick Williams	42	43	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	-0.08	-7	-3	-4	13.9	15.6	-1.77	16.5	14.0	2.47
Ben McLemore	51	51	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	-0.06	-10	0	-10	15.5	14.2	1.32	14.5	15.9	-1.36
Isaiah Thomas	79	78	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.14	-11	1	-12	15.2	13.5	1.68	14.8	16.7	-1.87

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Andre Drummond	66	66	0.50	0.00	0.49	0.12	13	-3	16	14.7	16.2	-1.53	15.6	13.1	2.50
Josh Smith	64	66	0.37	0.13	0.23	0.13	8	2	6	14.9	15.7	-0.77	14.8	15.0	-0.21
Kyle Singler	79	80	0.34	0.15	0.19	0.23	4	6	-2	15.5	13.4	2.18	14.4	17.2	-2.80
Rodney Stuckey	64	64	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.03	10	0	10	15.5	14.5	0.92	14.5	15.5	-0.97
Will Bynum	43	43	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.18	3	7	-4	15.9	14.5	1.38	13.9	15.6	-1.67
Brandon Jennings	56	56	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.09	5	5	0	14.1	16.6	-2.49	15.5	13.9	1.64
Greg Monroe	59	59	0.18	0.32	-0.15	0.21	-1	11	-12	15.8	14.1	1.64	14.4	15.6	-1.29
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	17	16	0.15	0.34	-0.19	-0.02	6	4	2	13.4	15.5	-2.18	17.2	14.4	2.80
Jonas Jerebko	32	30	0.13	0.37	-0.23	0.07	2	8	-6	15.7	14.9	0.77	15.0	14.8	0.21

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.44,0.37,0.37,0.31,0.35,0.37,0.37,0.46,0.43,0.47,0.44,0.45,0.4,0.49,0.52,0.46,0.56,0.46,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.66,0.67,0.67,0.7,0.77,0.8,0.78,0.83,0.8,0.75,0.78,0.87,0.9,0.93,0.95,0.97,0.99,1,0.98,0.99,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 91, PHI 104	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.43,0.43,0.46,0.42,0.37,0.36,0.41,0.43,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.48,0.45,0.42,0.4,0.46,0.52,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.44,0.59,0.51,0.54,0.66,0.67,0.64,0.67,0.71,0.8,0.75,0.79,0.74,0.68,0.87,0.87,0.93,0.91,0.96,0.97,0.95,0.93,0.99,1,1,1,1	95.6%
HOU 74, IND 85	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.5,0.46,0.43,0.37,0.37,0.38,0.36,0.37,0.4,0.4,0.36,0.42,0.42,0.46,0.47,0.42,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.56,0.5,0.55,0.6,0.58,0.67,0.71,0.71,0.77,0.78,0.77,0.78,0.68,0.74,0.7,0.82,0.94,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.0%
POR 91, LAL 104	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.55,0.53,0.51,0.4,0.39,0.34,0.33,0.4,0.42,0.37,0.42,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.42,0.42,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.44,0.46,0.5,0.54,0.55,0.64,0.66,0.67,0.74,0.78,0.82,0.74,0.74,0.78,0.87,0.92,0.88,0.91,0.98,1,0.99,0.95,1,1,1,1,1	94.6%