NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Charlotte Bobcats	82		Excitement	7.6 [313]		MVP	Marco Belinelli (SAS): +23.6%
San Antonio Spurs	92		Comeback	3.9 [737]		LVP	Kemba Walker (CHA): -23.9%

Charlotte Bobcats
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Cody Zeller	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.02	-0.00	8	50%	0.04	0	0.00	4	100%	0.03
Anthony Tolliver	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.06	-0.02	-0.00	5	62%	0.04	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Gary Neal	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.03,-0.05,0.04,0.01,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.01	-0.03	-0.00	13	54%	0.06	3	-0.10	2	100%	0.02
Luke Ridnour	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	2	40%	-0.04	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.04
Gerald Henderson	-0.06	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.02	-0.04	0.00	15	39%	-0.06	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	2	0%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Bismack Biyombo	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	3	0%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Josh McRoberts	-0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.03,-0.08,-0.08	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	6	33%	0.03	1	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Al Jefferson	-0.15	0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.15,-0.15	-0.04	-0.13	-0.02	21	48%	0.05	3	-0.20	0	0%	0.00
Kemba Walker	-0.24	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.08,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.17,-0.14,-0.16,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.2,-0.15,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24	-0.11	-0.12	0.01	15	32%	-0.19	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.03

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Marco Belinelli	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.24,0.24	0.24	0.05	0.18	0.00	10	70%	0.30	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.07,0.07	0.07	-0.00	0.08	0.01	12	59%	0.22	4	-0.16	5	100%	0.02
Patty Mills	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.05	0.00	-0.00	10	67%	0.10	2	-0.05	1	100%	0.01
Aron Baynes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Cory Joseph	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Matt Bonner	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Ayres	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kawhi Leonard	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	0.01	9	60%	0.06	3	-0.08	2	100%	0.02
Manu Ginobili	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.01,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04	-0.04	0.01	-0.03	0.01	13	56%	0.04	3	-0.07	1	100%	0.00
Danny Green	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.03	-0.01	7	56%	-0.00	3	-0.04	4	100%	0.01
Tiago Splitter	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	0.00	4	25%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Boris Diaw	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.03	-0.06	0.00	5	40%	-0.06	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.2	2.4	25.2	15.5	23.5	2.3	35.6	126.8
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +76.8%

SAS +3.3%

CHA -22.9%

SAS +0.8%

CHA -8.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHA	SAS	NBA	CHA	SAS	NBA
this game	17.0	13.4	15.1	86.3	97.9	105.2
season	15.7	15.0		102.4	109.8
opponent	15.0	15.1		101.1	103.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHA	15.8	18.3	18.3	15.8	17.0
SAS	13.7	12.2	13.0	14.8	13.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Charlotte Bobcats
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Luke Ridnour	24	25	0.14	-0.64	0.79	0.09	2	-12	14	18.1	16.6	1.44	15.2	12.8	2.33
Anthony Tolliver	36	38	0.03	-0.53	0.57	-0.08	4	-14	18	18.4	16.2	2.26	13.6	13.4	0.18
Bismack Biyombo	26	26	0.00	-0.50	0.51	0.00	0	-10	10	18.0	16.6	1.42	13.0	13.6	-0.56
Gary Neal	48	49	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.11	-2	-8	6	16.0	18.0	-2.00	13.1	13.8	-0.72
Cody Zeller	36	37	-0.22	-0.28	0.05	-0.11	-4	-6	2	15.9	17.7	-1.72	12.1	14.4	-2.30
Josh McRoberts	59	57	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	-0.10	-6	-4	-2	17.7	15.9	1.72	14.4	12.1	2.30
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist	45	43	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	-0.07	-8	-2	-6	17.0	17.0	0.06	13.3	13.5	-0.18
Al Jefferson	69	68	-0.50	0.00	-0.51	-0.21	-10	0	-10	16.6	18.0	-1.42	13.6	13.0	0.56
Gerald Henderson	61	58	-0.56	0.06	-0.61	-0.14	-14	4	-18	16.9	17.1	-0.21	13.7	13.0	0.77
Kemba Walker	71	69	-0.64	0.14	-0.79	-0.29	-12	2	-14	16.6	18.1	-1.44	12.8	15.2	-2.33

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Patty Mills	56	57	0.80	-0.30	1.09	0.18	21	-11	32	13.0	14.1	-1.06	18.3	15.1	3.18
Manu Ginobili	50	51	0.71	-0.21	0.92	0.21	17	-7	24	12.2	14.9	-2.71	17.5	16.4	1.08
Tim Duncan	63	65	0.68	-0.18	0.85	0.12	19	-9	28	13.9	12.6	1.29	17.2	16.5	0.70
Boris Diaw	60	61	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.16	6	4	2	13.0	14.1	-1.10	16.7	17.6	-0.99
Marco Belinelli	62	63	0.25	0.25	0.00	0.19	2	8	-6	13.2	13.9	-0.65	16.3	18.4	-2.10
Matt Bonner	8	9	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.06	0	10	-10	16.1	13.2	2.93	18.1	16.9	1.22
Danny Green	53	54	0.01	0.49	-0.49	-0.05	2	8	-6	13.7	13.2	0.49	16.8	17.3	-0.50
Kawhi Leonard	59	58	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	-0.08	2	8	-6	14.1	12.3	1.76	17.6	16.2	1.39
Cory Joseph	14	15	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	0.10	-5	15	-20	15.4	13.1	2.24	14.1	17.5	-3.42
Aron Baynes	11	11	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	-0.00	-2	12	-14	13.1	13.5	-0.40	17.1	17.0	0.09
Jeff Ayres	5	4	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	0.05	-4	14	-18	8.6	13.7	-5.12	17.7	17.0	0.77
Tiago Splitter	29	27	-0.14	0.64	-0.79	0.09	-8	18	-26	14.4	13.0	1.40	15.7	17.5	-1.88

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.46,0.48,0.47,0.41,0.37,0.37,0.34,0.27,0.28,0.28,0.27,0.27,0.25,0.26,0.24,0.28,0.31,0.25,0.25,0.33,0.42,0.4,0.45,0.45,0.42,0.45,0.48,0.52,0.59,0.59,0.73,0.68,0.54,0.66,0.47,0.62,0.68,0.53,0.34,0.46,0.75,0.63,0.43,0.98,1
Game		Similarity Score
ORL 84, PHX 87	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.43,0.35,0.38,0.41,0.43,0.39,0.45,0.38,0.3,0.3,0.32,0.32,0.27,0.27,0.26,0.25,0.2,0.22,0.19,0.22,0.27,0.26,0.37,0.45,0.52,0.42,0.42,0.52,0.6,0.59,0.63,0.52,0.62,0.62,0.66,0.62,0.53,0.41,0.4,0.53,0.61,0.55,0.45,0.92,1	92.1%
GSW 118, LAL 124	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.46,0.44,0.37,0.34,0.33,0.31,0.35,0.38,0.35,0.38,0.3,0.21,0.19,0.26,0.28,0.34,0.31,0.28,0.25,0.3,0.3,0.34,0.34,0.36,0.45,0.55,0.58,0.62,0.62,0.53,0.52,0.6,0.58,0.7,0.53,0.71,0.68,0.79,0.59,0.67,0.69,0.64,0.69,0.96,1	90.4%
SEA 91, MIL 97	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.45,0.45,0.4,0.36,0.32,0.34,0.4,0.38,0.38,0.31,0.28,0.32,0.27,0.28,0.27,0.33,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.51,0.55,0.61,0.55,0.68,0.62,0.63,0.7,0.68,0.58,0.62,0.66,0.54,0.73,0.69,0.53,0.39,0.53,0.72,0.76,0.92,1	90.3%