NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	100		Excitement	6.8 [466]		MVP	Jose Calderon (DAL): +14.5%
Dallas Mavericks	91		Comeback	5.2 [132]		LVP	Dirk Nowitzki (DAL): -12.7%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mike Dunleavy	0.12	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.10	0.05	0.03	10	73%	0.14	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Jimmy Butler	0.09	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.05	0.05	0.01	13	51%	0.09	0	0.00	11	55%	-0.10
Kirk Hinrich	0.07	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07	0.06	0.01	0.00	8	94%	0.25	5	-0.18	2	50%	-0.01
Nazr Mohammed	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
D.J. Augustin	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.02	-0.02	0.02	7	60%	0.04	2	-0.06	1	100%	0.00
Tony Snell	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Taj Gibson	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,0,0.01,0.03,0.02,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.05,-0.13,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.01	-0.02	0.01	15	54%	0.10	4	-0.14	7	86%	0.01
Carlos Boozer	-0.09	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.04	-0.02	0.03	9	45%	-0.02	2	-0.07	2	50%	-0.01
Joakim Noah	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12	-0.07	-0.05	0.00	8	53%	0.01	5	-0.13	3	67%	-0.02

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jose Calderon	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.05	0.08	-0.01	12	54%	0.15	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeJuan Blair	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.05	0.01	0.01	4	64%	0.05	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Shawn Marion	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	0.01	0.02	5	110%	0.12	4	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Jae Crowder	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Vince Carter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.02	-0.07	-0.03	14	50%	0.00	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.00
Brandan Wright	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Monta Ellis	0,0,0.05,0.05,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.02	0.01	19	43%	-0.04	1	-0.02	8	50%	-0.04
Wayne Ellington	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.03	-0.05	0.00	4	25%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Samuel Dalembert	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	-0.06	0.01	4	60%	-0.00	2	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
Devin Harris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.07	-0.04	-0.01	3	25%	-0.04	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.09,-0.13,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.08	-0.05	0.00	18	42%	-0.01	3	-0.12	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.3	2.6	31.3	16.6	24.2	2.3	37.7	138.9
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI +45.6%

CHI +3.0%

CHI +25.2%

DAL -23.4%

DAL -0.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	DAL	NBA	CHI	DAL	NBA
this game	15.7	14.9	15.1	105.3	97.8	105.2
season	16.3	15.3		101.1	109.0
opponent	15.0	15.3		107.0	99.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	16.2	14.6	16.7	15.5	15.7
DAL	14.5	14.8	16.0	14.5	14.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Joakim Noah	74	71	0.70	-0.20	0.91	0.29	14	-5	19	15.5	16.6	-1.13	15.5	13.0	2.54
Taj Gibson	63	63	0.67	-0.17	0.85	0.15	18	-9	27	15.3	16.6	-1.25	14.2	16.4	-2.18
Mike Dunleavy	83	81	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.22	10	-1	11	15.4	18.0	-2.59	15.1	13.4	1.69
D.J. Augustin	47	48	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.12	13	-4	17	16.2	15.3	0.94	14.5	15.3	-0.72
Kirk Hinrich	58	56	0.42	0.08	0.33	0.21	7	2	5	15.8	15.6	0.23	15.6	13.9	1.71
Jimmy Butler	90	87	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.16	-1	10	-11	15.6	18.2	-2.60	14.6	19.5	-4.93
Nazr Mohammed	7	7	-0.06	0.56	-0.61	0.00	-2	11	-13	17.4	15.6	1.83	13.3	15.0	-1.74
Tony Snell	7	7	-0.06	0.56	-0.61	0.00	-2	11	-13	17.4	15.6	1.83	13.3	15.0	-1.74
Carlos Boozer	46	45	-0.32	0.82	-1.14	0.03	-12	21	-33	16.5	15.1	1.40	15.2	14.6	0.55

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Samuel Dalembert	43	43	0.20	-0.70	0.90	-0.07	9	-18	27	16.4	13.6	2.80	16.5	15.1	1.33
Shawn Marion	56	57	0.01	-0.51	0.52	-0.14	5	-14	19	15.8	13.5	2.33	16.7	14.3	2.37
Jae Crowder	2	2	-0.03	-0.47	0.43	0.02	-2	-7	5	18.5	14.8	3.69	17.5	15.7	1.80
Jose Calderon	63	64	-0.08	-0.42	0.35	-0.16	3	-12	15	15.3	14.0	1.32	16.0	15.2	0.81
Brandan Wright	16	18	-0.13	-0.37	0.23	-0.02	-4	-5	1	12.0	15.5	-3.49	16.8	15.5	1.28
Vince Carter	55	55	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.30	4	-13	17	13.5	17.0	-3.52	15.5	16.1	-0.63
Wayne Ellington	28	29	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	0.02	-8	-1	-7	13.1	15.7	-2.55	14.3	16.4	-2.10
Devin Harris	30	31	-0.42	-0.08	-0.35	-0.07	-12	3	-15	14.0	15.3	-1.32	15.2	16.0	-0.81
Monta Ellis	73	77	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.17	-9	0	-9	15.3	13.5	1.71	16.1	14.2	1.87
DeJuan Blair	33	33	-0.56	0.06	-0.61	-0.20	-12	3	-15	14.5	15.1	-0.63	14.8	16.3	-1.50
Dirk Nowitzki	66	66	-0.65	0.15	-0.80	-0.09	-19	10	-29	15.5	13.5	1.99	15.0	17.3	-2.26

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.57,0.66,0.71,0.72,0.67,0.75,0.74,0.78,0.81,0.79,0.77,0.65,0.68,0.71,0.76,0.81,0.75,0.61,0.54,0.57,0.63,0.64,0.64,0.7,0.74,0.62,0.62,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.62,0.57,0.52,0.33,0.23,0.3,0.29,0.53,0.31,0.11,0.04,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 99, ATL 89	0.5,0.51,0.56,0.58,0.58,0.62,0.62,0.64,0.67,0.69,0.72,0.73,0.71,0.66,0.72,0.75,0.73,0.81,0.73,0.8,0.81,0.76,0.78,0.76,0.67,0.63,0.62,0.66,0.52,0.58,0.64,0.68,0.65,0.59,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.54,0.57,0.71,0.53,0.42,0.31,0.24,0.33,0.1,0.11,0.08,0.02,0	91.8%
PHX 124, MIA 121	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.56,0.6,0.62,0.61,0.65,0.63,0.62,0.62,0.65,0.66,0.71,0.71,0.75,0.69,0.75,0.75,0.76,0.74,0.59,0.73,0.8,0.71,0.69,0.61,0.61,0.7,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.56,0.6,0.68,0.62,0.62,0.43,0.42,0.32,0.14,0.29,0.6,0.32,0.11,0.22,0.08,0	91.5%
LAL 100, MEM 93	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.58,0.64,0.61,0.68,0.7,0.69,0.76,0.76,0.73,0.72,0.76,0.72,0.73,0.71,0.67,0.7,0.69,0.69,0.69,0.7,0.65,0.63,0.6,0.55,0.58,0.7,0.73,0.68,0.68,0.65,0.66,0.6,0.6,0.5,0.57,0.67,0.53,0.42,0.36,0.24,0.4,0.38,0.22,0.33,0.08,0	91.1%