NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	99		Excitement	6.9 [461]		MVP	Joe Smith (MIL): +15.1%
Atlanta Hawks	89		Comeback	4.7 [131]		LVP	Joe Johnson (ATL): -12.6%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Joe Smith	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.15	0.10	0.09	0.03	9	67%	0.15	0	0.00	6	100%	0.02
Michael Redd	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06	0.02	0.04	-0.01	20	46%	0.06	0	0.00	6	100%	0.03
Bobby Simmons	0.06	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06	-0.00	0.07	0.00	13	46%	0.08	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
T.J. Ford	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.01	0.06	0.01	7	67%	0.18	5	-0.14	7	86%	0.03
Dan Gadzuric	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.05,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.01	8	57%	0.06	1	-0.04	7	43%	-0.06
Charlie Bell	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.01	11	48%	0.02	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.02
Jiri Welsch	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	3	50%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Jamaal Magloire	-0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	6	33%	-0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Andrew Bogut	-0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.01	4	25%	-0.04	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Zaza Pachulia	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.13	0.02	0.00	7	81%	0.15	1	-0.02	7	100%	0.04
Josh Childress	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.03	0.03	-0.01	9	65%	0.15	2	-0.08	2	100%	0.02
Royal Ivey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.02	0.00	2	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Esteban Batista	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.03	0	0%	0.00	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Marvin Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	4	62%	0.03	3	-0.05	8	75%	0.02
Josh Smith	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.06	0.01	-0.01	14	36%	-0.01	1	-0.02	8	62%	-0.03
Al Harrington	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.03,-0.07,-0.02,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.00	-0.05	0.01	19	52%	0.02	3	-0.08	4	25%	-0.04
Joe Johnson	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.19,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13	-0.13	-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	15	36%	-0.08	2	-0.05	3	67%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.0	2.5	34.3	15.5	23.4	2.3	36.3	141.3
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +14.5%

MIL +4.4%

MIL +32.7%

ATL -1.6%

MIL +0.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	ATL	NBA	MIL	ATL	NBA
this game	16.2	15.8	15.6	110.0	98.9	104.4
season	15.5	15.6		104.6	103.9
opponent	15.5	15.5		109.3	106.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	17.3	14.2	19.4	14.4	16.2
ATL	14.0	15.2	16.6	17.5	15.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dan Gadzuric	47	48	0.66	-0.16	0.82	0.13	18	-8	26	15.5	17.0	-1.53	16.0	15.6	0.39
T.J. Ford	71	67	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.18	13	-3	16	16.7	14.5	2.15	15.4	16.7	-1.29
Bobby Simmons	65	65	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.31	4	6	-2	17.2	13.7	3.52	16.1	15.0	1.08
Michael Redd	78	79	0.40	0.10	0.29	0.16	8	2	6	16.0	17.5	-1.47	15.9	15.2	0.68
Joe Smith	45	46	0.38	0.12	0.25	0.11	9	1	8	16.8	15.7	1.11	15.8	15.7	0.10
Jiri Welsch	44	44	0.27	0.23	0.04	-0.02	10	0	10	14.0	18.3	-4.35	15.8	15.7	0.08
Charlie Bell	47	48	0.26	0.24	0.02	-0.03	10	0	10	15.0	17.6	-2.65	15.5	16.0	-0.51
Andrew Bogut	19	19	-0.15	0.65	-0.80	0.08	-8	18	-26	17.0	16.0	0.99	15.4	15.9	-0.52
Jamaal Magloire	34	34	-0.30	0.80	-1.11	0.11	-14	24	-38	18.3	14.9	3.38	15.9	15.7	0.12

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Esteban Batista	28	27	0.13	-0.63	0.76	0.04	3	-13	16	13.6	16.8	-3.15	15.1	16.7	-1.64
Royal Ivey	32	33	-0.06	-0.44	0.39	-0.03	-1	-9	8	13.2	17.2	-3.92	15.3	16.8	-1.50
Marvin Williams	49	47	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	0.08	-11	1	-12	15.1	16.6	-1.48	14.7	17.8	-3.09
Zaza Pachulia	51	53	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.28	-2	-8	6	16.2	15.2	0.97	17.1	14.9	2.17
Josh Childress	68	67	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.15	-11	1	-12	16.5	13.6	2.89	16.3	16.0	0.30
Joe Johnson	80	80	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.24	-8	-2	-6	16.2	12.5	3.69	16.5	13.6	2.95
Al Harrington	64	65	-0.50	-0.00	-0.49	-0.29	-7	-3	-4	16.6	13.7	2.99	17.0	14.3	2.69
Josh Smith	78	78	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.17	-13	3	-16	16.0	14.3	1.67	16.3	15.8	0.45

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.56,0.58,0.58,0.62,0.62,0.64,0.67,0.69,0.72,0.73,0.71,0.66,0.72,0.75,0.73,0.81,0.73,0.8,0.81,0.76,0.78,0.76,0.67,0.63,0.62,0.66,0.52,0.58,0.64,0.68,0.65,0.59,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.54,0.57,0.71,0.53,0.42,0.31,0.24,0.33,0.1,0.11,0.08,0.02,0
Game		Similarity Score
SEA 84, CHH 81	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.56,0.63,0.66,0.64,0.63,0.62,0.6,0.64,0.65,0.62,0.62,0.68,0.69,0.65,0.72,0.67,0.69,0.66,0.64,0.61,0.63,0.58,0.58,0.55,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.59,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.54,0.57,0.53,0.47,0.47,0.36,0.24,0.33,0.19,0.16,0.01,0.04,0	92.4%
MIN 78, IND 71	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.59,0.63,0.64,0.68,0.71,0.74,0.72,0.7,0.73,0.71,0.74,0.78,0.7,0.64,0.67,0.74,0.72,0.73,0.74,0.78,0.83,0.82,0.78,0.74,0.69,0.61,0.58,0.61,0.55,0.59,0.55,0.52,0.44,0.44,0.54,0.56,0.47,0.57,0.58,0.41,0.24,0.22,0.25,0.16,0.09,0.03,0	92.1%
ORL 98, CLE 92	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.54,0.53,0.53,0.61,0.65,0.67,0.71,0.66,0.68,0.72,0.76,0.71,0.77,0.81,0.78,0.85,0.76,0.67,0.75,0.75,0.58,0.58,0.54,0.55,0.61,0.52,0.58,0.48,0.38,0.41,0.4,0.48,0.34,0.48,0.57,0.48,0.42,0.41,0.29,0.28,0.1,0.11,0.01,0,0	92.1%