NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	107		Excitement	10.4 [64]		MVP	Kirk Hinrich (CHI): +40.8%
Atlanta Hawks	103		Comeback	3.4 [452]		LVP	Mike Scott (ATL): -30.3%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kirk Hinrich	0.41	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.41	0.02	0.38	-0.01	12	45%	0.41	0	0.00	7	86%	0.18
Joakim Noah	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.09	0.02	0.02	13	67%	0.20	1	-0.10	4	50%	-0.05
Tony Snell	0.05	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.02	-0.00	8	59%	0.08	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Mike Dunleavy	0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.24,0.05	0.08	-0.02	0.01	15	61%	0.27	2	-0.22	6	100%	0.04
Nazr Mohammed	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Carlos Boozer	-0.02	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.08,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.02	0.02	14	57%	0.11	4	-0.13	2	50%	-0.02
Taj Gibson	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,0,0.01,0.01,-0.08,-0.08	-0.01	-0.07	-0.00	12	50%	0.01	2	-0.08	4	100%	0.07
D.J. Augustin	-0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.03,-0.01,-0.05,-0.08,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.12	-0.09	-0.02	14	30%	-0.15	2	-0.04	5	100%	0.03

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
DeMarre Carroll	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0.34,0.34	0.34	-0.01	0.33	-0.01	12	48%	0.39	2	-0.05	3	100%	0.02
Shelvin Mack	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.08	0.06	0.00	14	61%	0.15	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Louis Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.06,0.17,0.13,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.03	0.05	-0.01	10	55%	0.10	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Cartier Martin	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Korver	0,0,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.06	-0.08	0.03	10	67%	0.04	2	-0.09	4	100%	0.03
Dexter Pittman	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	1	0%	-0.06	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.05
Elton Brand	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.02	-0.11	-0.01	5	64%	0.07	3	-0.18	1	100%	0.01
Jeff Teague	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,0.05,0.06,0.12,0.1,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,0.11,0.11,0.06,0.17,0.23,0.21,0.21,-0.21	-0.21	0.04	-0.24	0.01	20	59%	0.29	4	-0.50	4	75%	0.02
Mike Scott	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.3	-0.30	-0.05	-0.25	-0.00	12	50%	-0.10	4	-0.21	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.4	2.3	29.8	16.0	23.4	1.7	40.5	135.2
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL -45.3%

CHI +50.0%

CHI +4.9%

CHI +44.8%

ATL -4.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	ATL	NBA	CHI	ATL	NBA
this game	15.2	14.6	15.1	111.5	106.2	105.2
season	16.3	14.8		101.1	103.8
opponent	15.3	15.3		104.7	99.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	18.3	13.3	14.5	15.1	15.2
ATL	14.4	15.5	14.8	13.7	14.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mike Dunleavy	95	96	0.60	-0.10	0.71	0.40	7	-3	10	15.4	0.0	15.39	14.7	7.0	7.70
D.J. Augustin	57	58	0.51	-0.01	0.51	0.15	12	-8	20	14.7	15.9	-1.21	15.1	13.9	1.16
Joakim Noah	73	74	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.42	-4	8	-12	15.4	14.6	0.82	14.7	14.5	0.18
Kirk Hinrich	66	65	0.28	0.22	0.05	0.42	-5	9	-14	15.8	13.9	1.93	13.8	16.2	-2.39
Taj Gibson	54	55	0.27	0.23	0.03	0.24	1	3	-2	14.4	16.4	-2.01	14.7	14.5	0.17
Tony Snell	71	73	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.23	0	4	-4	14.6	16.9	-2.23	14.7	14.3	0.43
Carlos Boozer	54	54	0.19	0.31	-0.11	0.14	2	2	0	16.2	14.0	2.27	14.9	14.3	0.53
Nazr Mohammed	10	10	0.12	0.38	-0.26	-0.09	7	-3	10	14.6	15.3	-0.70	13.5	14.7	-1.25

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dexter Pittman	4	5	-0.05	-0.45	0.41	0.01	-2	-2	0	19.7	14.4	5.35	13.6	15.3	-1.72
Cartier Martin	6	7	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	0.10	-8	4	-12	13.8	14.7	-0.84	10.4	15.6	-5.18
Shelvin Mack	56	54	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.07	-4	0	-4	14.6	14.6	0.02	15.7	14.6	1.08
Louis Williams	53	53	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.03	-7	3	-10	14.6	14.6	-0.03	14.6	16.0	-1.31
Jeff Teague	69	69	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.42	5	-9	14	14.6	14.6	0.07	15.4	14.9	0.52
Kyle Korver	77	77	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	-0.46	5	-9	14	14.8	13.7	1.09	15.4	14.4	1.07
Elton Brand	84	82	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.50	6	-10	16	14.5	15.2	-0.62	15.4	14.1	1.36
DeMarre Carroll	69	68	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.29	-6	2	-8	14.0	16.1	-2.14	15.8	13.9	1.94
Mike Scott	67	65	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.26	-9	5	-14	14.9	14.1	0.75	14.7	16.3	-1.61

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.58,0.57,0.57,0.57,0.6,0.61,0.63,0.63,0.7,0.77,0.75,0.7,0.66,0.62,0.6,0.58,0.56,0.44,0.47,0.59,0.54,0.49,0.42,0.46,0.48,0.57,0.55,0.48,0.36,0.38,0.32,0.31,0.41,0.37,0.32,0.3,0.3,0.29,0.42,0.53,0.41,0.4,0.22,0.31,0.22,0.31,0.73,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 83, DET 79	0.5,0.51,0.56,0.6,0.62,0.59,0.66,0.68,0.67,0.61,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.6,0.56,0.58,0.55,0.56,0.58,0.59,0.53,0.52,0.44,0.46,0.41,0.37,0.35,0.42,0.36,0.39,0.42,0.45,0.35,0.31,0.3,0.26,0.29,0.26,0.3,0.38,0.28,0.32,0.26,0.19,0.1,0.19,0.29,0.32,0.42,0	89.6%
SAS 104, GSW 102	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.55,0.56,0.52,0.6,0.64,0.65,0.72,0.73,0.66,0.63,0.66,0.68,0.77,0.73,0.69,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.56,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.48,0.41,0.39,0.35,0.35,0.41,0.31,0.26,0.32,0.19,0.26,0.29,0.38,0.47,0.59,0.46,0.39,0.47,0.36,0.32,0.26,0	89.5%
NYK 92, IND 90	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.56,0.49,0.49,0.57,0.61,0.57,0.55,0.6,0.52,0.53,0.49,0.47,0.44,0.54,0.44,0.44,0.39,0.49,0.39,0.46,0.54,0.6,0.59,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.48,0.48,0.38,0.35,0.37,0.4,0.26,0.38,0.21,0.24,0.42,0.31,0.34,0.17,0.15,0.1,0.17,0.74,0	89.5%