NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Oklahoma City Thunder	102		Excitement	8.9 [149]		MVP	Tobias Harris (ORL): +59.6%
Orlando Magic	103		Comeback	10.5 [33]		LVP	Nikola Vucevic (ORL): -26.8%

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Serge Ibaka	0.23	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.19,0.19,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23	0.21	0.05	0.03	13	81%	0.23	0	0.00	6	83%	-0.01
Thabo Sefolosha	0.16	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.16,0.16	0.02	0.13	-0.00	7	57%	0.22	1	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Derek Fisher	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.05	-0.02	0.01	4	75%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kendrick Perkins	0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.00	0.01	-0.00	2	100%	0.04	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Perry Jones	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.03	-0.02	0.00	4	62%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nick Collison	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.00	1	100%	0.05	1	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Jeremy Lamb	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.04,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.01	-0.06	-0.02	6	67%	0.04	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Steven Adams	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.02	-0.01	0	0%	0.01	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Jackson	-0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	14	37%	-0.04	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.02
Kevin Durant	-0.08	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.02,0.04,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.16,0.07,0.03,-0.08	0.01	-0.11	-0.02	22	57%	0.04	6	-0.12	7	100%	0.06

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tobias Harris	0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.1,-0.18,0.6	0.60	-0.01	0.61	0.00	17	45%	0.61	1	-0.02	6	100%	0.04
Glen Davis	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.12	0.02	0.01	8	87%	0.14	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Victor Oladipo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.09	0.04	0.02	7	78%	0.13	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.02
Kyle O'Quinn	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.03	0.03	0.01	7	56%	0.06	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.03
E'Twaun Moore	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.03	0.00	4	75%	0.10	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Andrew Nicholson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	0.00	0.01	4	75%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jameer Nelson	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.09,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	8	56%	0.04	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Maurice Harkless	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	2	17%	-0.07	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.03
Arron Afflalo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.03,-0.1,-0.1,-0.15	-0.15	0.01	-0.16	0.00	11	50%	-0.13	1	-0.02	10	90%	0.01
Nikola Vucevic	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.14,-0.14,-0.27	-0.27	-0.07	-0.21	-0.01	12	38%	-0.25	2	-0.02	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.2	2.7	28.3	15.4	25.6	2.4	40.2	137.9
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +1.6%

ORL +5.3%

ORL +32.5%

ORL +5.5%

ORL +5.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	OKC	ORL	NBA	OKC	ORL	NBA
this game	15.0	15.8	15.1	108.5	110.8	105.2
season	14.4	15.3		107.8	100.4
opponent	15.0	15.4		105.9	102.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
OKC	15.1	14.8	15.1	14.9	15.0
ORL	16.2	17.3	16.2	13.9	15.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Derek Fisher	29	30	0.09	-0.58	0.67	-0.12	7	-8	15	15.9	14.6	1.38	14.9	16.3	-1.32
Steven Adams	23	23	0.05	-0.55	0.61	-0.09	5	-6	11	16.1	14.6	1.52	14.7	16.2	-1.50
Kendrick Perkins	36	36	0.01	-0.51	0.51	0.12	-4	3	-7	15.2	14.9	0.30	16.9	15.1	1.82
Nick Collison	32	33	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	-0.02	-5	4	-9	15.6	14.7	0.89	14.3	16.6	-2.32
Kevin Durant	78	77	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	-0.48	6	-7	13	14.7	16.1	-1.38	16.1	14.6	1.45
Serge Ibaka	76	74	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.45	4	-5	9	14.6	16.4	-1.74	16.6	12.9	3.69
Perry Jones	23	23	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.08	-9	8	-17	15.7	14.7	0.95	13.5	16.6	-3.12
Thabo Sefolosha	56	56	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.33	-2	1	-3	14.8	15.2	-0.34	16.3	15.1	1.15
Jeremy Lamb	52	50	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.55	1	-2	3	14.7	15.4	-0.73	15.6	16.1	-0.49
Reggie Jackson	65	63	-0.58	0.09	-0.67	-0.35	-8	7	-15	14.6	15.9	-1.38	16.3	14.9	1.32

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Victor Oladipo	44	44	0.77	-0.27	1.04	0.48	10	-9	19	15.0	16.6	-1.61	14.9	15.1	-0.22
Maurice Harkless	43	44	0.71	-0.21	0.92	0.47	8	-7	15	15.5	16.1	-0.67	15.0	15.0	0.04
Tobias Harris	66	67	0.60	-0.10	0.70	0.57	1	0	1	15.5	16.6	-1.03	15.1	14.7	0.33
E'Twaun Moore	26	27	0.39	0.11	0.29	0.13	9	-8	17	14.3	16.4	-2.16	16.3	14.4	1.85
Nikola Vucevic	60	61	0.29	0.21	0.09	0.29	0	1	-1	16.0	15.5	0.44	14.9	15.2	-0.31
Kyle O'Quinn	36	36	0.12	0.39	-0.27	0.17	-2	3	-5	15.7	15.9	-0.26	15.3	14.8	0.48
Arron Afflalo	71	71	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.35	-9	10	-19	16.4	14.0	2.33	14.5	16.4	-1.87
Andrew Nicholson	11	13	-0.10	0.60	-0.70	-0.04	-2	3	-5	19.2	15.4	3.80	14.4	15.1	-0.69
Glen Davis	54	53	-0.12	0.62	-0.74	-0.03	-3	4	-7	16.0	15.6	0.32	15.1	14.8	0.27
Jameer Nelson	54	54	-0.25	0.75	-1.00	-0.05	-7	8	-15	16.3	15.2	1.16	14.8	15.2	-0.34

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.47,0.39,0.4,0.43,0.37,0.3,0.25,0.2,0.22,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.23,0.18,0.19,0.23,0.2,0.14,0.11,0.1,0.18,0.22,0.19,0.21,0.22,0.22,0.24,0.23,0.21,0.19,0.3,0.38,0.47,0.47,0.64,0.71,0.67,0.52,0.45,0.43,0.16,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIN 86, POR 88	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.43,0.36,0.35,0.34,0.34,0.31,0.26,0.24,0.21,0.2,0.24,0.26,0.27,0.33,0.31,0.34,0.44,0.36,0.31,0.31,0.27,0.2,0.19,0.14,0.22,0.24,0.3,0.26,0.23,0.19,0.21,0.19,0.25,0.3,0.27,0.34,0.62,0.53,0.64,0.59,0.67,0.61,0.46,0.45,0.09,1	90.9%
DET 83, POR 84	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.44,0.39,0.38,0.37,0.32,0.35,0.31,0.34,0.35,0.32,0.31,0.3,0.33,0.27,0.2,0.23,0.24,0.23,0.17,0.2,0.3,0.19,0.18,0.2,0.19,0.19,0.13,0.22,0.28,0.34,0.4,0.36,0.38,0.38,0.52,0.42,0.42,0.47,0.65,0.67,0.61,0.63,0.25,0.27,1	90.6%
IND 96, NYK 98	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.48,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.49,0.38,0.29,0.27,0.35,0.38,0.38,0.31,0.25,0.22,0.2,0.21,0.2,0.2,0.14,0.14,0.09,0.11,0.2,0.22,0.17,0.27,0.29,0.2,0.16,0.11,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.22,0.29,0.28,0.42,0.47,0.53,0.47,0.47,0.46,0.55,0.42,1	89.9%