NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	83		Excitement	7.5 [331]		MVP	Travis Outlaw (POR): +40.0%
Portland Trail Blazers	84		Comeback	6.5 [262]		LVP	Allen Iverson (DET): -43.2%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kwame Brown	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.12,0.12	0.06	0.07	0.01	5	69%	0.12	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.08
Tayshaun Prince	0.10	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.12,0.12,0.23,0.17,0.17,0.25,0.19,0.1	0.13	-0.01	0.01	21	62%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Arron Afflalo	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.01	0.03	-0.01	3	71%	0.06	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.05
Walter Herrmann	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	1	150%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Amir Johnson	0.01	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	-0.00	0.01	2	100%	0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jason Maxiell	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	3	62%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Antonio McDyess	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.02	-0.05	0.00	6	33%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rodney Stuckey	-0.21	0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21	-0.13	-0.08	0.00	12	43%	-0.03	6	-0.18	6	83%	0.01
Allen Iverson	-0.43	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.13,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.19,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.14,-0.14,-0.43	-0.17	-0.28	-0.02	19	33%	-0.32	4	-0.11	4	50%	-0.02

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Travis Outlaw	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.11,0.4	0.40	0.05	0.35	0.01	10	64%	0.42	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Rudy Fernandez	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.18,0.18,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.08	0.02	0.01	10	65%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Steve Blake	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	-0.02	0.07	-0.00	9	56%	0.13	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Jerryd Bayless	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.01	-0.01	6	50%	0.04	0	0.00	4	100%	0.03
Nicolas Batum	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	2	75%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Greg Oden	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	0.01	3	57%	0.01	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.01
Channing Frye	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joel Przybilla	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.01	-0.00	1	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	6	33%	-0.06
Sergio Rodriguez	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	3	50%	0.05	2	-0.08	2	100%	0.02
LaMarcus Aldridge	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03,-0.14,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	0.04	-0.14	0.02	21	53%	-0.07	2	-0.05	7	57%	-0.07

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.1	2.5	29.4	15.7	27.0	2.4	35.6	135.8
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

POR +51.5%

POR +16.2%

DET -24.2%

POR +12.6%

DET -6.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	POR	NBA	DET	POR	NBA
this game	19.4	16.4	15.5	102.5	105.0	106.4
season	16.9	16.7		104.9	111.0
opponent	16.0	15.7		105.8	106.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	18.9	18.0	17.7	23.7	19.4
POR	18.9	17.1	13.6	16.3	16.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Amir Johnson	29	29	0.32	-0.82	1.15	0.09	8	-9	17	18.7	19.8	-1.05	16.8	16.1	0.62
Kwame Brown	53	52	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	-0.18	1	-2	3	19.9	18.4	1.59	17.3	14.7	2.59
Walter Herrmann	10	11	-0.16	-0.34	0.17	-0.37	7	-8	15	16.8	19.8	-2.96	16.5	16.3	0.21
Arron Afflalo	22	18	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.22	0	-1	1	19.5	19.4	0.08	17.2	16.1	1.11
Allen Iverson	72	73	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	-0.26	0	-1	1	20.0	14.6	5.44	16.5	14.9	1.65
Jason Maxiell	29	28	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	0.00	-11	10	-21	18.5	19.9	-1.37	15.4	16.9	-1.49
Rodney Stuckey	68	69	-0.52	0.02	-0.53	-0.46	-2	1	-3	18.7	22.8	-4.11	16.0	18.7	-2.74
Tayshaun Prince	74	73	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.46	-2	1	-3	19.6	17.7	1.84	16.5	14.9	1.65
Antonio McDyess	48	47	-0.67	0.17	-0.83	-0.49	-6	5	-11	20.0	18.5	1.54	15.4	17.7	-2.27

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Joel Przybilla	51	50	0.98	-0.48	1.46	0.69	10	-9	19	16.0	17.1	-1.11	20.1	18.3	1.74
Travis Outlaw	55	56	0.66	-0.16	0.82	0.46	7	-6	13	16.2	16.8	-0.58	19.9	18.2	1.79
LaMarcus Aldridge	73	75	0.58	-0.08	0.66	0.41	6	-5	11	16.0	20.6	-4.61	19.8	14.7	5.11
Steve Blake	58	57	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.40	0	1	-1	15.5	18.6	-3.07	19.2	19.8	-0.56
Jerryd Bayless	30	31	0.25	0.25	0.00	-0.04	10	-9	19	14.8	17.3	-2.55	19.3	19.5	-0.17
Nicolas Batum	35	34	0.25	0.25	-0.00	0.28	-1	2	-3	16.3	16.4	-0.14	18.9	19.8	-0.93
Sergio Rodriguez	22	24	0.08	0.42	-0.34	0.05	1	0	1	18.6	15.5	3.07	19.8	19.2	0.56
Channing Frye	7	6	-0.08	0.58	-0.66	0.06	-5	6	-11	20.6	16.0	4.61	14.7	19.8	-5.11
Rudy Fernandez	49	51	-0.08	0.58	-0.67	0.18	-9	10	-19	17.7	14.3	3.33	19.1	19.9	-0.85
Greg Oden	20	21	-0.54	1.04	-1.57	-0.13	-14	15	-29	17.2	16.1	1.18	18.1	19.8	-1.69

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.44,0.39,0.38,0.37,0.32,0.35,0.31,0.34,0.35,0.32,0.31,0.3,0.33,0.27,0.2,0.23,0.24,0.23,0.17,0.2,0.3,0.19,0.18,0.2,0.19,0.19,0.13,0.22,0.28,0.34,0.4,0.36,0.38,0.38,0.52,0.42,0.42,0.47,0.65,0.67,0.61,0.63,0.25,0.27,1
Game		Similarity Score
NJN 87, TOR 90	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.42,0.41,0.36,0.32,0.33,0.36,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.35,0.37,0.39,0.41,0.34,0.29,0.28,0.27,0.25,0.26,0.16,0.18,0.19,0.12,0.13,0.2,0.16,0.17,0.29,0.36,0.38,0.43,0.57,0.53,0.53,0.41,0.59,0.67,0.71,0.55,0.45,0.42,1	91.8%
LAC 85, POR 91	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.45,0.47,0.39,0.41,0.43,0.49,0.53,0.47,0.43,0.4,0.34,0.29,0.31,0.33,0.37,0.29,0.26,0.29,0.23,0.27,0.37,0.32,0.25,0.28,0.27,0.24,0.16,0.2,0.28,0.44,0.48,0.51,0.42,0.43,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.57,0.6,0.53,0.45,0.45,0.15,0.26,1	91.3%
OKC 102, ORL 103	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.47,0.39,0.4,0.43,0.37,0.3,0.25,0.2,0.22,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.23,0.18,0.19,0.23,0.2,0.14,0.11,0.1,0.18,0.22,0.19,0.21,0.22,0.22,0.24,0.23,0.21,0.19,0.3,0.38,0.47,0.47,0.64,0.71,0.67,0.52,0.45,0.43,0.16,1	90.6%