NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	90		Excitement	7.0 [421]		MVP	Marco Belinelli (SAS): +9.3%
Houston Rockets	97		Comeback	3.2 [373]		LVP	Dwight Howard (HOU): -11.2%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Marco Belinelli	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.1,0.09	-0.01	0.07	-0.04	12	46%	0.09	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Cory Joseph	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.05	0.01	-0.00	5	67%	0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Manu Ginobili	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.00	0.02	-0.01	6	50%	0.04	1	-0.01	6	83%	0.02
Patty Mills	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.00	-0.01	7	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Matt Bonner	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.01	-0.00	3	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Jeff Ayres	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Othyus Jeffers	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Aron Baynes	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	2	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nando De Colo	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Boris Diaw	-0.07	0,0,-0.01,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07	0.00	-0.08	0.00	20	51%	-0.03	3	-0.05	3	67%	-0.00
Tim Duncan	-0.11	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11	-0.03	-0.06	0.02	10	55%	-0.01	3	-0.10	2	0%	-0.03
Tony Parker	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.1,-0.11	-0.04	-0.09	-0.02	16	45%	-0.01	2	-0.10	6	67%	-0.05

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Terrence Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.09	-0.01	0.03	12	66%	0.09	1	-0.04	8	37%	-0.10
Jeremy Lin	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.05	0.05	0.01	0.03	-0.01	13	55%	0.11	3	-0.06	7	100%	0.04
Donatas Motiejunas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.01	0.01	3	83%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Patrick Beverley	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	-0.00	0.00	8	61%	0.06	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Chandler Parsons	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.08,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.07	0.02	-0.02	11	27%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Omri Casspi	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	4	38%	-0.00	2	-0.06	5	20%	-0.06
Aaron Brooks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	9	44%	-0.03	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Dwight Howard	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.16	0.00	-0.05	15	42%	0.04	6	-0.15	25	52%	-0.16

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.2	0.2	28.1	15.8	33.8	2.5	33.6	141.1
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

HOU +18.3%

SAS -0.8%

HOU +38.8%

SAS -6.3%

HOU +0.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	HOU	NBA	SAS	HOU	NBA
this game	16.9	14.6	15.1	98.9	105.4	105.2
season	15.0	14.3		109.8	109.5
opponent	15.2	15.0		105.4	101.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	12.7	18.3	19.6	17.5	16.9
HOU	18.1	15.3	11.2	13.8	14.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Othyus Jeffers	1	1	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.00	0	-7	7	7.0	17.0	-10.03	11.0	14.6	-3.60
Jeff Ayres	17	17	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	0.10	-4	-3	-1	12.8	17.9	-5.11	14.8	14.5	0.24
Cory Joseph	43	43	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.21	6	-13	19	16.5	17.3	-0.74	15.0	14.2	0.82
Matt Bonner	27	29	-0.05	-0.45	0.41	-0.08	1	-8	9	15.8	17.4	-1.58	15.4	14.2	1.29
Nando De Colo	14	15	-0.09	-0.41	0.33	-0.09	0	-7	7	15.6	17.2	-1.51	14.5	14.6	-0.04
Manu Ginobili	28	29	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	0.10	-9	2	-11	14.5	18.0	-3.55	15.1	14.3	0.74
Tim Duncan	54	53	-0.18	-0.32	0.15	-0.23	2	-9	11	17.2	16.5	0.78	17.5	10.5	6.99
Tony Parker	62	62	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.29	1	-8	9	17.2	16.4	0.75	14.7	14.3	0.39
Aron Baynes	19	20	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.13	-5	-2	-3	19.2	16.3	2.89	8.0	16.4	-8.33
Marco Belinelli	73	72	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.18	-8	1	-9	18.0	12.5	5.51	14.3	15.4	-1.13
Boris Diaw	64	64	-0.48	-0.02	-0.47	-0.25	-8	1	-9	17.7	15.1	2.63	13.7	16.4	-2.68
Patty Mills	53	55	-0.53	0.03	-0.57	-0.21	-11	4	-15	17.1	16.7	0.41	14.1	15.2	-1.04

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jeremy Lin	83	82	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.27	7	0	7	14.9	11.8	3.09	17.0	16.0	1.02
Chandler Parsons	68	67	0.39	0.11	0.29	0.28	4	3	1	15.4	12.1	3.30	17.4	15.5	1.99
Donatas Motiejunas	38	37	0.36	0.14	0.23	0.01	12	-5	17	10.6	17.4	-6.79	16.6	17.1	-0.55
Dwight Howard	66	65	0.35	0.15	0.21	0.35	0	7	-7	15.5	12.3	3.15	17.4	15.8	1.62
Aaron Brooks	46	44	0.33	0.17	0.15	0.12	7	0	7	13.4	15.7	-2.35	16.9	17.0	-0.07
Terrence Jones	72	72	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.30	-3	10	-13	16.0	9.4	6.60	16.6	18.2	-1.56
Patrick Beverley	55	56	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.20	0	7	-7	15.1	13.8	1.31	16.8	17.1	-0.31
Omri Casspi	32	32	0.18	0.32	-0.15	-0.06	8	-1	9	12.4	15.7	-3.31	16.0	17.4	-1.42

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.37,0.36,0.37,0.32,0.27,0.28,0.3,0.26,0.27,0.34,0.27,0.26,0.3,0.35,0.35,0.32,0.3,0.25,0.28,0.25,0.3,0.3,0.4,0.48,0.58,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.62,0.66,0.59,0.67,0.78,0.81,0.78,0.82,0.91,0.88,0.9,0.89,0.9,0.89,0.84,0.9,0.96,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHX 114, PHI 119	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.42,0.38,0.32,0.35,0.33,0.32,0.28,0.23,0.25,0.3,0.26,0.32,0.32,0.31,0.31,0.28,0.25,0.29,0.33,0.26,0.25,0.37,0.35,0.31,0.42,0.57,0.52,0.52,0.53,0.59,0.69,0.77,0.82,0.74,0.82,0.91,0.94,0.88,0.86,0.82,0.87,0.96,0.9,0.96,0.98,1	94.1%
WAS 72, DEN 88	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.42,0.42,0.39,0.37,0.38,0.38,0.33,0.33,0.31,0.36,0.32,0.26,0.26,0.21,0.25,0.29,0.3,0.27,0.27,0.28,0.26,0.25,0.27,0.34,0.4,0.45,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.62,0.73,0.7,0.68,0.78,0.87,0.79,0.89,0.93,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	93.5%
PHX 96, SAS 102	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.42,0.44,0.44,0.36,0.34,0.32,0.25,0.26,0.25,0.32,0.26,0.28,0.38,0.35,0.31,0.32,0.25,0.29,0.33,0.25,0.22,0.3,0.4,0.43,0.48,0.48,0.55,0.65,0.59,0.59,0.76,0.67,0.68,0.85,0.91,0.96,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.96,0.93,1,1	93.3%