NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	105		Excitement	9.3 [108]		MVP	LaMarcus Aldridge (POR): +54.0%
Portland Trail Blazers	110		Comeback	7.9 [357]		LVP	Ty Lawson (DEN): -30.2%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Randy Foye	0.24	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.14,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.29,0.24	0.08	0.14	-0.02	10	70%	0.25	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Timofey Mozgov	0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.17,0.17	0.04	0.13	0.00	4	80%	0.24	1	-0.07	2	100%	0.03
Anthony Randolph	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.10	0.01	0.01	5	100%	0.14	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Wilson Chandler	0.05	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.05	0.03	0.01	-0.01	11	69%	0.21	4	-0.16	4	75%	0.01
Quincy Miller	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.01	0.00	2	60%	0.04	2	-0.05	1	100%	0.01
Kenneth Faried	-0.03	0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	0.02	7	57%	0.02	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
JJ Hickson	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.01	-0.03	0.01	10	60%	0.09	3	-0.13	0	0%	0.00
Evan Fournier	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.02	-0.02	7	29%	-0.05	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Nate Robinson	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.05,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	0.01	-0.13	0.00	12	50%	-0.07	1	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Ty Lawson	-0.30	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.16,-0.16,-0.3	-0.07	-0.22	0.01	11	42%	-0.23	3	-0.07	9	78%	0.00

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
LaMarcus Aldridge	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,0,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.12,0.13,0.12,0.13,0.09,0.24,0.54	0.54	0.15	0.39	0.01	29	59%	0.58	2	-0.04	17	82%	0.11
CJ McCollum	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.02	0.06	-0.01	6	50%	0.09	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Wesley Matthews	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.06	0.06	0.15	-0.07	0.02	15	67%	0.09	1	-0.03	6	100%	0.03
Thomas Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.03	-0.00	2	67%	0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Joel Freeland	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mo Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.02	-0.01	5	20%	-0.03	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Damian Lillard	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.02	-0.05	0.01	10	52%	0.02	3	-0.11	1	100%	0.00
Nicolas Batum	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.04	-0.10	0.00	5	43%	-0.10	2	-0.04	4	100%	0.02
Robin Lopez	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.1,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23	-0.23	-0.02	-0.20	0.01	14	40%	-0.23	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.8	2.6	35.6	18.7	27.1	2.8	42.2	153.9
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN -63.7%

POR +43.8%

POR +18.9%

POR +50.1%

POR +0.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	POR	NBA	DEN	POR	NBA
this game	15.6	14.9	15.1	110.5	117.0	105.2
season	14.0	15.1		104.5	109.6
opponent	14.8	14.9		106.5	106.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	14.5	13.5	16.1	19.1	15.6
POR	13.7	14.7	15.2	16.0	14.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kenneth Faried	43	41	0.03	-0.53	0.56	0.03	0	-5	5	15.4	15.8	-0.41	15.8	14.1	1.73
Quincy Miller	28	28	0.02	-0.52	0.53	-0.13	5	-10	15	15.0	15.9	-0.88	14.1	15.2	-1.01
Anthony Randolph	36	36	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.02	-1	-4	3	14.7	16.2	-1.49	12.7	16.2	-3.54
Evan Fournier	26	28	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.16	-1	-4	3	18.1	14.7	3.38	13.4	15.5	-2.13
Ty Lawson	76	75	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	-0.26	1	-6	7	14.7	19.3	-4.55	15.1	14.1	1.00
JJ Hickson	75	72	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	-0.28	0	-5	5	14.8	18.8	-4.03	15.6	12.3	3.31
Nate Robinson	37	37	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.11	-7	2	-9	18.1	14.0	4.07	14.2	15.2	-1.00
Wilson Chandler	63	63	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.24	-5	0	-5	15.9	15.1	0.80	15.2	14.1	1.17
Timofey Mozgov	34	35	-0.52	0.02	-0.55	-0.38	-5	0	-5	19.2	13.6	5.58	16.1	14.1	1.92
Randy Foye	57	55	-0.57	0.07	-0.64	-0.22	-12	7	-19	13.8	18.3	-4.45	14.6	15.2	-0.65

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Wesley Matthews	77	78	0.69	-0.19	0.88	0.37	11	-6	17	15.0	14.2	0.82	15.6	15.9	-0.32
Robin Lopez	75	78	0.58	-0.08	0.66	0.29	10	-5	15	15.4	12.5	2.91	15.6	15.8	-0.25
LaMarcus Aldridge	76	77	0.41	0.09	0.31	0.29	4	1	3	14.9	14.7	0.23	14.9	18.9	-4.03
Damian Lillard	74	76	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.25	2	3	-1	15.1	14.0	1.02	14.6	19.6	-4.95
Mo Williams	36	36	0.24	0.26	-0.03	0.12	4	1	3	13.7	15.5	-1.78	17.2	14.7	2.53
CJ McCollum	20	19	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.10	3	2	1	14.0	15.1	-1.02	19.6	14.6	4.95
Nicolas Batum	77	77	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.25	-3	8	-11	14.8	14.9	-0.11	14.8	18.9	-4.10
Thomas Robinson	18	18	0.09	0.41	-0.31	0.06	1	4	-3	14.7	14.9	-0.23	18.9	14.9	4.03
Joel Freeland	17	16	-0.17	0.67	-0.84	0.04	-7	12	-19	14.0	15.0	-1.04	16.3	15.5	0.83

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.57,0.53,0.51,0.59,0.57,0.57,0.51,0.53,0.43,0.51,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.3,0.23,0.31,0.36,0.36,0.33,0.27,0.21,0.18,0.11,0.17,0.19,0.13,0.19,0.22,0.27,0.29,0.36,0.3,0.38,0.52,0.57,0.47,0.47,0.54,0.6,0.62,0.71,0.68,0.42,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 106, BOS 110	0.5,0.51,0.44,0.43,0.45,0.46,0.46,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.57,0.64,0.64,0.54,0.53,0.45,0.47,0.44,0.39,0.35,0.32,0.29,0.23,0.21,0.16,0.2,0.17,0.14,0.2,0.17,0.24,0.32,0.23,0.17,0.2,0.22,0.36,0.42,0.52,0.62,0.76,0.63,0.59,0.6,0.72,0.68,0.79,0.83,0.53,1	90.7%
NJN 87, TOR 90	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.42,0.41,0.36,0.32,0.33,0.36,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.35,0.37,0.39,0.41,0.34,0.29,0.28,0.27,0.25,0.26,0.16,0.18,0.19,0.12,0.13,0.2,0.16,0.17,0.29,0.36,0.38,0.43,0.57,0.53,0.53,0.41,0.59,0.67,0.71,0.55,0.45,0.42,1	90.3%
DAL 112, NOP 114	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.44,0.43,0.38,0.47,0.42,0.44,0.42,0.44,0.42,0.44,0.34,0.3,0.22,0.2,0.12,0.14,0.22,0.24,0.27,0.26,0.35,0.22,0.3,0.26,0.36,0.38,0.38,0.33,0.42,0.53,0.47,0.41,0.47,0.39,0.45,0.67,0.31,1	90.2%