NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Portland Trail Blazers	127		Excitement	2.6 [1229]		MVP	Nicolas Batum (POR): +11.2%
Dallas Mavericks	111		Comeback	1.2 [803]		LVP	Wesley Matthews (POR): -3.8%

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nicolas Batum	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.17	-0.00	0.06	11	84%	0.13	1	-0.02	3	67%	0.00
LaMarcus Aldridge	0.09	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.07,0.09,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.11	0.01	0.03	18	67%	0.13	4	-0.04	9	89%	0.02
CJ McCollum	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.00	-0.02	7	56%	0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Robin Lopez	0.04	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.08	0.00	0.05	13	57%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Mo Williams	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	6	57%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Joel Freeland	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.06	0.00	0.04	3	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Thomas Robinson	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.04	5	80%	0.03	4	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Damian Lillard	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.05	-0.00	0.04	8	64%	0.03	1	-0.02	6	100%	0.00
Will Barton	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	0.00	0.01	3	62%	0.00	1	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Dorell Wright	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.09	0.00	-0.09	3	0%	0.00	2	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Meyers Leonard	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.05	0.00	-0.05	3	0%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Wesley Matthews	-0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	0.00	0.01	10	45%	-0.01	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.00

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Vince Carter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.06	0.00	0.00	8	61%	0.06	1	-0.00	2	100%	0.01
Devin Harris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	4	50%	0.01	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Brandan Wright	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	0.00	0.00	8	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Monta Ellis	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	-0.00	0.01	12	52%	0.03	1	-0.02	5	60%	-0.02
Shane Larkin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	6	56%	0.01	1	-0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Wayne Ellington	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.07	0.00	0.07	5	73%	-0.00	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.03	-0.00	0.03	17	46%	-0.01	0	0.00	5	100%	0.01
DeJuan Blair	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.07	0.00	0.09	8	68%	-0.02	1	0.00	3	100%	-0.00
Jose Calderon	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	-0.00	-0.02	6	38%	-0.02	1	-0.01	1	100%	0.00
Samuel Dalembert	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	-0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jae Crowder	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.09	-0.00	0.13	8	81%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Shawn Marion	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.06	0.00	-0.02	6	25%	-0.02	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.4	1.8	31.4	15.8	30.3	2.5	32.5	140.5
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

POR +33.8%

POR +8.1%

POR +13.6%

DAL -4.9%

DAL -0.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	POR	DAL	NBA	POR	DAL	NBA
this game	14.8	13.8	15.1	125.7	109.9	105.2
season	15.1	15.3		109.6	109.0
opponent	15.0	14.8		107.0	106.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
POR	14.2	14.7	12.3	18.4	14.8
DAL	15.8	13.0	13.9	12.3	13.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
LaMarcus Aldridge	67	68	0.48	0.02	0.46	-0.67	39	-23	62	13.3	17.6	-4.23	14.6	12.1	2.44
Nicolas Batum	71	72	0.46	0.04	0.43	-0.56	35	-19	54	13.0	18.8	-5.76	14.5	11.9	2.57
Robin Lopez	55	58	0.36	0.14	0.21	-0.35	24	-8	32	13.1	16.7	-3.57	14.3	13.1	1.21
Damian Lillard	68	69	0.30	0.20	0.09	-0.50	27	-11	38	13.0	18.4	-5.36	14.4	12.3	2.12
Wesley Matthews	59	61	0.28	0.22	0.06	-0.34	21	-5	26	13.3	16.8	-3.44	14.4	12.7	1.68
Mo Williams	42	40	0.25	0.25	0.00	-0.16	14	2	12	14.6	14.9	-0.27	13.6	13.9	-0.31
CJ McCollum	32	30	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.50	-10	26	-36	18.7	12.9	5.85	12.9	14.1	-1.27
Joel Freeland	29	26	0.14	0.36	-0.21	-0.15	10	6	4	14.9	14.7	0.25	14.1	13.6	0.48
Thomas Robinson	34	33	0.02	0.48	-0.46	0.70	-23	39	-62	17.6	13.3	4.23	12.1	14.6	-2.44
Dorell Wright	16	16	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.56	-19	35	-54	20.7	13.6	7.13	10.7	14.3	-3.58
Will Barton	16	16	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.56	-19	35	-54	20.7	13.6	7.13	10.7	14.3	-3.58
Meyers Leonard	16	16	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.56	-19	35	-54	20.7	13.6	7.13	10.7	14.3	-3.58

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jae Crowder	36	36	0.02	-0.52	0.55	-0.56	20	-36	56	12.4	14.5	-2.18	16.4	13.9	2.50
Wayne Ellington	28	28	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.53	18	-34	52	12.7	14.2	-1.40	17.5	13.7	3.80
Brandan Wright	41	41	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.52	17	-33	50	12.5	14.6	-2.06	15.7	14.1	1.53
Shane Larkin	48	50	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.20	4	-20	24	12.9	14.5	-1.65	15.0	14.5	0.45
DeJuan Blair	56	55	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	0.08	-8	-8	0	13.3	14.3	-0.99	15.3	14.1	1.26
Devin Harris	36	37	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.05	-6	-10	4	13.4	14.0	-0.58	16.3	13.9	2.44
Jose Calderon	44	43	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	0.20	-16	0	-16	14.5	13.2	1.27	13.6	15.6	-2.08
Shawn Marion	53	50	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	0.40	-24	8	-32	14.9	12.5	2.49	13.3	16.2	-2.84
Samuel Dalembert	28	28	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	0.15	-16	0	-16	15.4	13.1	2.31	13.2	15.3	-2.13
Vince Carter	40	40	-0.33	-0.17	-0.15	0.35	-23	7	-30	14.0	13.6	0.39	14.0	15.2	-1.16
Dirk Nowitzki	45	48	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	0.28	-23	7	-30	13.9	13.7	0.19	14.1	15.3	-1.16
Monta Ellis	50	49	-0.43	-0.07	-0.35	0.25	-23	7	-30	14.8	12.7	2.13	13.8	15.7	-1.94

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.46,0.42,0.43,0.43,0.41,0.37,0.29,0.25,0.26,0.24,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.22,0.2,0.23,0.26,0.2,0.15,0.09,0.06,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
GSW 120, IND 83	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.5,0.46,0.38,0.38,0.34,0.37,0.37,0.32,0.27,0.25,0.22,0.18,0.21,0.21,0.2,0.21,0.27,0.2,0.16,0.12,0.1,0.06,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	97.4%
ATL 95, GSW 79	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.48,0.54,0.45,0.45,0.39,0.35,0.31,0.27,0.32,0.26,0.21,0.2,0.16,0.13,0.2,0.26,0.21,0.22,0.18,0.15,0.11,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	97.3%
WAS 93, MIL 77	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.44,0.4,0.4,0.36,0.37,0.35,0.37,0.3,0.25,0.19,0.17,0.13,0.12,0.18,0.22,0.21,0.13,0.16,0.13,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.8%