NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

New Orleans Pelicans	107		Excitement	7.8 [286]		MVP	Dirk Nowitzki (DAL): +56.3%
Dallas Mavericks	110		Comeback	2.5 [681]		LVP	Eric Gordon (NOP): -16.2%

New Orleans Pelicans
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Darius Miller	0.33	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.13,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.21,0.33	0.12	0.20	0.00	5	120%	0.36	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Davis	0.21	0,0,0,0.01,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.18,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.21	0.13	0.10	0.02	17	64%	0.28	1	-0.08	10	80%	0.02
Al-Farouq Aminu	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	-0.00	9	71%	0.14	4	-0.11	3	100%	0.02
Alexis Ajinca	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Greg Stiemsma	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.01	-0.00	1	50%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Jeff Withey	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Smith	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.03	-0.05	-0.01	6	59%	0.08	1	-0.09	5	80%	0.01
Anthony Morrow	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brian Roberts	-0.07	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.00	10	30%	-0.04	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.01
Austin Rivers	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.08,-0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07	-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	10	37%	-0.01	1	-0.06	4	50%	-0.02
Eric Gordon	-0.16	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.06	-0.12	-0.01	14	62%	0.08	8	-0.24	4	75%	-0.01

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.08,0.11,0.16,0.19,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.54,0.53,0.56	0.56	0.28	0.25	-0.03	20	71%	0.57	1	-0.01	16	94%	0.11
Jose Calderon	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.09,0.03,0.03,0.16,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.22	0.22	0.08	0.14	-0.01	10	71%	0.31	2	-0.09	4	75%	0.03
Monta Ellis	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,-0.03,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,-0.01,0,0,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.07	0.05	0.00	13	63%	0.28	5	-0.17	15	80%	0.04
Brandan Wright	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.01	0.00	3	80%	0.07	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.02
Samuel Dalembert	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.00	4	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Vince Carter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.06	0.03	-0.03	9	45%	0.08	3	-0.08	4	75%	-0.00
Ricky Ledo	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gal Mekel	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeJuan Blair	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jae Crowder	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	5	42%	0.01	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Shane Larkin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	-0.00	-0.01	3	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	30.5	1.7	29.4	15.7	29.0	2.5	41.3	150.0
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +2.2%

DAL +38.9%

NOP -27.6%

DAL +28.4%

DAL +8.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	NOP	DAL	NBA	NOP	DAL	NBA
this game	15.7	14.2	15.1	110.3	114.6	105.2
season	15.5	15.3		105.6	109.0
opponent	15.0	15.3		107.0	108.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
NOP	15.7	17.0	14.5	15.5	15.7
DAL	15.0	13.5	13.7	14.5	14.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

New Orleans Pelicans
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Greg Stiemsma	19	19	0.06	-0.56	0.62	-0.06	4	-7	11	16.2	15.5	0.68	13.7	14.3	-0.55
Austin Rivers	47	45	0.03	-0.53	0.56	-0.14	6	-9	15	16.1	15.3	0.78	14.4	14.0	0.46
Alexis Ajinca	23	23	0.01	-0.51	0.52	-0.05	2	-5	7	17.3	15.1	2.21	12.8	14.6	-1.78
Anthony Morrow	18	17	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.00	-3	0	-3	17.2	15.3	1.92	12.8	14.5	-1.64
Jason Smith	38	39	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.13	0	-3	3	14.2	16.6	-2.38	15.6	13.2	2.34
Jeff Withey	8	9	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	0.02	-5	2	-7	17.6	15.5	2.14	12.8	14.3	-1.54
Darius Miller	39	38	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.30	1	-4	5	16.4	15.1	1.30	13.6	14.5	-0.90
Anthony Davis	80	78	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	-0.38	2	-5	7	15.5	16.3	-0.77	14.7	11.9	2.82
Eric Gordon	74	75	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	-0.18	-9	6	-15	15.5	16.3	-0.84	14.6	12.8	1.75
Brian Roberts	65	65	-0.59	0.09	-0.68	-0.50	-3	0	-3	15.1	16.7	-1.63	13.9	14.8	-0.98
Al-Farouq Aminu	74	72	-0.62	0.12	-0.75	-0.33	-10	7	-17	15.3	16.8	-1.53	13.9	15.0	-1.04

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Monta Ellis	83	82	0.65	-0.15	0.80	0.39	9	-6	15	14.2	13.9	0.29	15.6	16.2	-0.64
Jose Calderon	71	73	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.37	4	-1	5	14.1	14.3	-0.14	14.9	18.0	-3.16
Brandan Wright	52	51	0.48	0.02	0.45	0.51	-1	4	-5	13.1	15.4	-2.27	16.0	15.2	0.80
Jae Crowder	67	72	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.39	2	1	1	14.6	13.1	1.54	15.2	17.0	-1.81
Dirk Nowitzki	68	68	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.11	11	-8	19	15.1	12.0	3.12	15.0	17.2	-2.16
Shane Larkin	21	20	0.16	0.34	-0.17	0.07	3	0	3	13.6	14.3	-0.78	18.8	14.8	4.02
Vince Carter	53	53	0.12	0.38	-0.25	0.27	-5	8	-13	13.0	15.7	-2.67	16.8	14.2	2.58
Samuel Dalembert	44	46	0.02	0.48	-0.45	-0.09	4	-1	5	15.4	13.1	2.27	15.2	16.0	-0.80
Ricky Ledo	4	3	-0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.00	0	3	-3	11.5	14.3	-2.79	20.7	15.5	5.17
Gal Mekel	4	5	-0.13	0.63	-0.77	-0.02	-4	7	-11	18.0	14.0	3.99	13.6	15.8	-2.17
DeJuan Blair	13	12	-0.17	0.67	-0.85	0.06	-8	11	-19	12.5	14.4	-1.98	16.7	15.5	1.15

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.47,0.44,0.49,0.56,0.49,0.45,0.4,0.38,0.4,0.37,0.38,0.38,0.42,0.47,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.48,0.56,0.61,0.64,0.63,0.52,0.63,0.78,0.76,0.73,0.82,0.82,0.72,0.66,0.81,0.79,0.78,0.7,0.57,0.71,0.58,0.59,0.35,0.39,0.39,0.72,0.96,0.98,1
Game		Similarity Score
ATL 69, NJN 79	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.56,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.43,0.39,0.38,0.42,0.35,0.4,0.42,0.42,0.44,0.54,0.54,0.49,0.59,0.64,0.66,0.73,0.67,0.72,0.74,0.78,0.73,0.73,0.65,0.71,0.75,0.69,0.61,0.75,0.85,0.81,0.7,0.71,0.7,0.59,0.53,0.48,0.4,0.54,0.9,0.99,1	92.0%
HOU 106, PHX 116	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.43,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.47,0.43,0.43,0.39,0.42,0.43,0.34,0.38,0.36,0.51,0.54,0.59,0.59,0.56,0.61,0.57,0.61,0.63,0.7,0.63,0.75,0.78,0.81,0.82,0.87,0.89,0.77,0.7,0.64,0.58,0.48,0.53,0.57,0.47,0.59,0.35,0.4,0.45,0.54,0.96,1,1	91.9%
ORL 102, TOR 108	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.43,0.45,0.4,0.34,0.35,0.42,0.44,0.56,0.51,0.51,0.61,0.58,0.59,0.56,0.59,0.59,0.54,0.58,0.72,0.73,0.78,0.73,0.77,0.72,0.76,0.77,0.74,0.71,0.74,0.78,0.79,0.71,0.77,0.64,0.54,0.47,0.62,0.54,0.84,0.92,1	91.4%