NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	81		Excitement	8.1 [236]		MVP	CJ Miles (CLE): +12.7%
Cleveland Cavaliers	87		Comeback	2499.0 [1]		LVP	Glen Davis (ORL): -32.0%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jameer Nelson	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.08	0.06	0.01	9	78%	0.17	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Andrew Nicholson	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0.05,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.00	0.05	-0.00	11	50%	0.08	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.02
Maurice Harkless	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.00	0.02	0.00	2	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tobias Harris	-0.06	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.02	-0.03	0.01	11	45%	-0.02	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
E'Twaun Moore	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	0.01	-0.06	0.00	2	50%	-0.06	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.10
Arron Afflalo	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.07,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.08	-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	15	40%	0.04	2	-0.12	0	0%	0.00
Jason Maxiell	-0.10	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.01	-0.01	6	33%	-0.01	3	-0.09	6	67%	-0.01
Victor Oladipo	-0.20	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.11,-0.13,-0.16,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.2,-0.2	-0.10	-0.11	-0.01	9	33%	-0.09	3	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Glen Davis	-0.32	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.11,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.11,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.19,-0.19,-0.27,-0.27,-0.32	-0.13	-0.15	0.05	19	35%	-0.25	2	-0.07	8	50%	-0.07

Cleveland Cavaliers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
CJ Miles	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.12	0.02	0.01	8	74%	0.13	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Dion Waiters	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,0.25,0.25,0.2,0.11,0.11,0.08	0.08	-0.08	0.18	0.02	20	37%	0.10	1	-0.02	6	83%	-0.01
Anderson Varejao	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.04,0.05,0.06	0.06	-0.00	0.10	0.04	17	47%	0.08	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.04
Tyler Zeller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Alonzo Gee	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	3	33%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tristan Thompson	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.04	0.01	13	47%	-0.03	1	-0.03	8	50%	-0.02
Matthew Dellavedova	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.09	0.00	-0.00	5	20%	-0.04	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jarrett Jack	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.04,-0.04,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.03	-0.08	0.03	16	40%	-0.11	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.00
Earl Clark	0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.13	-0.04	-0.01	10	20%	-0.10	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Bennett	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.10	-0.06	-0.00	4	0%	-0.07	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	23.8	2.3	27.3	16.4	20.3	2.4	41.6	1.6	15.0	150.7
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	1.9	17.6	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL -9.2%

CLE +12.1%

CLE +22.4%

CLE +19.3%

CLE +5.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	CLE	NBA	ORL	CLE	NBA
this game	15.9	16.0	15.1	81.8	87.0	105.2
season	15.3	15.2		100.4	102.8
opponent	15.3	15.0		106.5	105.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
ORL	15.6	15.6	17.4	16.2	13.2	15.9
CLE	15.7	18.7	16.0	13.3	18.1	16.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Andrew Nicholson	38	39	0.37	-0.87	1.24	0.16	7	-13	20	15.1	16.4	-1.29	15.9	16.1	-0.18
Maurice Harkless	20	21	0.17	-0.67	0.84	0.11	2	-8	10	15.3	16.1	-0.73	13.4	16.7	-3.35
Tobias Harris	50	51	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.06	2	-8	10	16.8	15.1	1.68	17.0	15.0	2.06
E'Twaun Moore	29	28	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	-0.12	0	-6	6	13.8	16.8	-2.97	13.9	16.8	-2.92
Jason Maxiell	77	77	-0.16	-0.34	0.17	-0.11	-2	-4	2	16.5	14.0	2.48	17.0	12.7	4.27
Victor Oladipo	50	52	-0.58	0.08	-0.66	-0.34	-8	2	-10	15.0	16.9	-1.88	14.9	17.2	-2.31
Jameer Nelson	79	79	-0.67	0.17	-0.84	-0.43	-8	2	-10	16.1	15.3	0.73	16.7	13.4	3.35
Glen Davis	80	81	-0.70	0.20	-0.89	-0.37	-11	5	-16	16.3	14.4	1.87	15.4	18.8	-3.41
Arron Afflalo	72	72	-0.82	0.32	-1.13	-0.46	-12	6	-18	16.3	15.0	1.28	16.7	14.4	2.27

Cleveland Cavaliers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dion Waiters	73	73	0.83	-0.33	1.17	0.31	18	-12	30	16.3	15.4	0.85	15.4	17.4	-1.97
Jarrett Jack	78	77	0.77	-0.27	1.03	0.42	12	-6	18	16.5	14.3	2.25	16.3	14.8	1.49
Anderson Varejao	74	71	0.75	-0.25	1.00	0.51	8	-2	10	16.0	16.1	-0.12	16.8	13.8	2.94
Matthew Dellavedova	43	45	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.39	5	1	4	15.1	16.7	-1.64	13.6	17.8	-4.19
Tristan Thompson	74	72	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.13	6	0	6	16.8	13.9	2.85	16.7	13.8	2.91
CJ Miles	54	52	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.22	0	6	-6	14.3	18.1	-3.85	17.3	14.4	2.86
Earl Clark	35	35	-0.10	0.60	-0.69	-0.01	-3	9	-12	18.3	14.8	3.47	16.2	15.8	0.37
Alonzo Gee	19	18	-0.27	0.77	-1.03	-0.09	-6	12	-18	15.1	16.3	-1.21	15.3	16.1	-0.73
Tyler Zeller	28	28	-0.27	0.77	-1.04	-0.09	-6	12	-18	16.1	16.0	0.11	14.4	16.5	-2.14
Anthony Bennett	22	24	-0.28	0.78	-1.06	-0.16	-4	10	-14	14.5	16.5	-2.02	14.8	16.3	-1.45

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.57,0.57,0.55,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.4,0.47,0.46,0.4,0.47,0.44,0.49,0.44,0.37,0.49,0.51,0.59,0.54,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.39,0.35,0.35,0.48,0.56,0.52,0.44,0.3,0.34,0.34,0.2,0.15,0.11,0.06,0.07,0.1,0.07,0.01,0,0.54,0.69,0.55,0.67,0.96,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHX 106, SAS 111	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.5,0.47,0.45,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.4,0.43,0.38,0.38,0.35,0.35,0.37,0.44,0.39,0.42,0.42,0.46,0.5,0.46,0.37,0.28,0.27,0.24,0.23,0.25,0.38,0.44,0.33,0.4,0.3,0.22,0.34,0.33,0.19,0.17,0.15,0.13,0.1,0.11,0.1,0.16,0.54,0.69,0.63,0.9,0.98,1	90.0%
ORL 107, ATL 112	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.52,0.58,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.4,0.38,0.4,0.42,0.4,0.38,0.4,0.33,0.44,0.47,0.54,0.49,0.56,0.59,0.51,0.63,0.6,0.58,0.61,0.7,0.71,0.62,0.48,0.56,0.56,0.52,0.42,0.34,0.25,0.24,0.12,0.14,0.08,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0.46,0.45,0.72,0.91,0.92,1	89.4%
WAS 124, CHA 129	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.45,0.44,0.4,0.39,0.39,0.34,0.45,0.4,0.42,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.56,0.56,0.49,0.41,0.46,0.39,0.36,0.36,0.42,0.32,0.28,0.25,0.36,0.39,0.55,0.62,0.59,0.59,0.63,0.52,0.34,0.43,0.29,0.26,0.13,0.21,0.15,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.46,0.69,0.71,0.77,0.91,1	88.7%