NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	99		Excitement	6.3 [560]		MVP	Danny Green (SAS): +17.6%
San Antonio Spurs	112		Comeback	1.1 [1228]		LVP	DeMar DeRozan (TOR): -14.2%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tyler Hansbrough	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.06	0.04	0.00	3	77%	0.12	1	-0.02	7	57%	-0.02
Terrence Ross	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.12	-0.00	0.03	16	72%	0.14	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Lowry	0.07	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.10	-0.01	0.02	15	59%	0.09	1	-0.02	9	100%	0.04
Jonas Valanciunas	0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	-0.01	9	53%	0.04	1	-0.01	1	0%	-0.02
Charles Hayes	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
John Salmons	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Patrick Patterson	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.00	-0.02	0.00	7	44%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Steve Novak	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	0	0%	0.00	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Amir Johnson	-0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	7	44%	-0.02	2	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Greivis Vasquez	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	7	37%	-0.01	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
DeMar DeRozan	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.10	-0.03	0.02	16	38%	-0.07	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.01

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Danny Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.13	0.07	0.03	8	87%	0.18	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Manu Ginobili	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.08	0.05	0.02	7	78%	0.19	3	-0.08	9	100%	0.05
Tony Parker	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.02	0.01	19	58%	0.14	4	-0.10	7	71%	0.01
Jeff Ayres	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.01	0.00	2	67%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Boris Diaw	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	9	45%	0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Matt Bonner	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nando De Colo	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Aron Baynes	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Patty Mills	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.02	0.00	7	50%	0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Tiago Splitter	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	5	57%	0.03	2	-0.06	4	50%	-0.01
Kawhi Leonard	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.01	-0.02	0.05	12	52%	-0.03	1	-0.02	1	100%	-0.00
Tim Duncan	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.09	-0.00	-0.03	15	28%	-0.07	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Marco Belinelli	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.08	-0.02	-0.01	7	29%	-0.04	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.4	2.4	27.3	14.8	24.2	2.4	31.4	129.9
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +20.3%

SAS +1.9%

SAS +25.2%

TOR -5.4%

SAS +8.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	SAS	NBA	TOR	SAS	NBA
this game	15.1	15.2	15.1	104.2	117.9	105.2
season	15.9	15.0		107.2	109.8
opponent	15.0	15.1		101.1	104.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	17.1	15.6	14.9	13.2	15.1
SAS	15.0	16.4	15.1	14.6	15.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Charles Hayes	5	5	0.06	-0.56	0.62	0.03	1	-14	15	13.0	15.2	-2.19	12.8	15.4	-2.58
John Salmons	36	37	-0.00	-0.50	0.49	-0.09	3	-16	19	15.2	15.0	0.19	15.3	15.2	0.05
Steve Novak	8	8	-0.05	-0.45	0.41	0.04	-3	-10	7	8.6	15.7	-7.04	14.9	15.3	-0.40
Tyler Hansbrough	30	30	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.10	0	-13	13	16.2	14.5	1.69	15.3	15.2	0.04
Patrick Patterson	37	36	-0.13	-0.37	0.23	-0.08	-2	-11	9	15.9	14.6	1.30	15.2	15.3	-0.12
Greivis Vasquez	33	32	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.12	-3	-10	7	16.4	14.4	2.02	15.2	15.2	0.01
Kyle Lowry	78	78	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	-0.16	-3	-10	7	14.9	15.9	-0.98	15.1	16.1	-0.99
Amir Johnson	57	58	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.09	-10	-3	-7	15.4	14.6	0.74	15.0	15.6	-0.58
Jonas Valanciunas	53	53	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.05	-12	-1	-11	14.7	15.5	-0.81	15.8	14.5	1.29
Terrence Ross	66	66	-0.45	-0.05	-0.39	0.08	-18	5	-23	15.2	14.9	0.25	15.7	14.2	1.54
DeMar DeRozan	72	72	-0.60	0.10	-0.69	-0.07	-18	5	-23	14.5	16.8	-2.25	15.0	16.0	-1.06

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Danny Green	47	48	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.13	10	3	7	14.7	15.7	-1.03	15.0	15.2	-0.23
Kawhi Leonard	62	62	0.41	0.09	0.31	0.06	12	1	11	15.2	15.3	-0.05	14.5	16.1	-1.61
Boris Diaw	55	54	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.30	0	13	-13	15.3	15.2	0.12	14.8	15.5	-0.73
Tony Parker	66	68	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.10	7	6	1	15.4	14.9	0.45	14.6	16.2	-1.55
Jeff Ayres	20	20	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.05	7	6	1	13.5	15.7	-2.14	16.0	14.8	1.17
Manu Ginobili	49	48	0.23	0.27	-0.04	-0.03	9	4	5	15.3	15.2	0.09	15.0	15.1	-0.15
Tim Duncan	56	55	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.20	1	12	-11	15.5	14.9	0.58	14.9	15.3	-0.48
Patty Mills	28	29	0.17	0.33	-0.16	-0.01	6	7	-1	15.5	15.1	0.32	15.4	14.9	0.44
Matt Bonner	14	14	0.06	0.44	-0.37	-0.05	4	9	-5	17.6	14.8	2.82	15.8	15.0	0.84
Marco Belinelli	37	35	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.00	2	11	-9	15.1	15.3	-0.22	16.0	14.5	1.47
Tiago Splitter	39	38	0.05	0.45	-0.40	-0.10	5	8	-3	14.8	15.6	-0.80	16.9	13.9	3.04
Nando De Colo	1	1	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.03	1	12	-11	23.0	15.2	7.84	7.0	15.2	-8.16
Aron Baynes	1	3	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.03	1	12	-11	23.0	15.2	7.84	5.3	15.4	-10.06

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.54,0.58,0.57,0.53,0.6,0.55,0.6,0.58,0.48,0.56,0.53,0.55,0.62,0.65,0.65,0.62,0.69,0.69,0.7,0.67,0.67,0.58,0.57,0.51,0.58,0.64,0.74,0.68,0.62,0.66,0.7,0.82,0.74,0.82,0.88,0.87,0.91,0.94,0.94,0.93,0.9,0.99,0.98,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIN 92, NJN 100	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.54,0.51,0.56,0.53,0.53,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.63,0.56,0.51,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.61,0.64,0.66,0.67,0.61,0.67,0.67,0.65,0.69,0.58,0.61,0.61,0.58,0.59,0.65,0.7,0.71,0.68,0.74,0.81,0.88,0.89,0.96,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.99,1,0.98,1,1	94.5%
PHI 88, LAL 100	0.5,0.5,0.52,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.58,0.61,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.66,0.62,0.58,0.6,0.61,0.66,0.64,0.64,0.64,0.63,0.6,0.55,0.58,0.64,0.73,0.71,0.74,0.69,0.64,0.67,0.85,0.85,0.85,0.92,0.96,0.99,0.97,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	94.5%
WAS 92, TOR 99	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.62,0.56,0.58,0.6,0.63,0.63,0.6,0.55,0.54,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.58,0.58,0.56,0.61,0.58,0.61,0.66,0.7,0.73,0.58,0.6,0.57,0.61,0.67,0.58,0.65,0.68,0.69,0.69,0.71,0.72,0.87,0.91,0.92,0.94,0.98,0.96,0.95,0.9,0.93,0.93,0.94,0.96,1	94.4%