NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	83		Excitement	5.3 [768]		MVP	Arron Afflalo (ORL): +21.5%
Chicago Bulls	82		Comeback	1.5 [266]		LVP	Carlos Boozer (CHI): -14.6%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Arron Afflalo	0.21	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.19,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.16,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.2,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.21	0.12	0.09	0.00	14	68%	0.24	1	-0.03	6	83%	-0.01
E'Twaun Moore	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	3	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jameer Nelson	0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.01	-0.03	0.01	-0.03	13	54%	0.10	4	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Nikola Vucevic	0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.00	9	56%	0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Tobias Harris	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	-0.02	7	29%	-0.02	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Kyle O'Quinn	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Glen Davis	-0.04	0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.07,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.01	0.01	15	41%	-0.01	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.01
Andrew Nicholson	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	6	33%	-0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Maurice Harkless	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	3	29%	-0.00	2	-0.04	1	0%	-0.01
Victor Oladipo	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.06	-0.00	-0.02	12	31%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Joakim Noah	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.11	0.11	0.04	0.07	0.00	9	54%	0.11	0	0.00	6	83%	-0.00
Tony Snell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike Dunleavy	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.08	-0.01	0.05	9	70%	0.04	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Luol Deng	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,-0.04	-0.04	0.09	-0.10	0.03	16	59%	-0.02	1	-0.02	12	75%	-0.00
D.J. Augustin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	15	44%	-0.01	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Marquis Teague	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	3	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Taj Gibson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.07	-0.00	-0.00	7	19%	-0.07	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Jimmy Butler	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.12	-0.03	-0.01	11	17%	-0.14	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Carlos Boozer	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.15	-0.15	-0.07	-0.08	-0.00	10	30%	-0.06	1	-0.09	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.3	2.6	28.3	15.6	24.9	1.5	36.3	133.5
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +40.9%

ORL +5.0%

ORL +12.9%

CHI -8.3%

CHI -0.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	CHI	NBA	ORL	CHI	NBA
this game	17.3	14.4	15.1	91.2	90.1	105.2
season	15.3	16.3		100.4	101.1
opponent	15.3	15.0		99.6	105.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	16.5	17.4	19.2	16.2	17.3
CHI	15.5	14.5	15.0	12.6	14.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jameer Nelson	75	74	0.61	-0.11	0.72	0.34	9	-8	17	16.7	20.0	-3.28	14.9	12.1	2.82
Glen Davis	63	61	0.48	0.02	0.47	0.37	4	-3	7	16.3	19.5	-3.23	14.7	13.6	1.17
Arron Afflalo	69	69	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.39	0	1	-1	17.1	18.0	-0.99	14.4	14.3	0.04
Nikola Vucevic	69	68	0.39	0.11	0.27	0.39	0	1	-1	17.1	18.0	-0.99	14.6	13.7	0.88
Victor Oladipo	63	64	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.41	-3	4	-7	17.1	17.7	-0.60	14.4	14.2	0.24
Kyle O'Quinn	8	10	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.07	1	0	1	18.0	17.2	0.77	11.9	14.7	-2.75
Maurice Harkless	29	29	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.10	0	1	-1	17.7	17.1	0.63	14.0	14.5	-0.52
Tobias Harris	37	37	0.09	0.41	-0.33	0.17	-3	4	-7	18.9	16.2	2.69	13.4	15.0	-1.55
Andrew Nicholson	30	31	0.03	0.47	-0.45	0.11	-3	4	-7	19.5	16.2	3.29	13.5	14.8	-1.27
E'Twaun Moore	12	12	0.00	0.50	-0.49	0.00	0	1	-1	17.9	17.2	0.71	15.3	14.2	1.13

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tony Snell	10	11	-0.02	-0.48	0.45	-0.02	0	-1	1	12.3	14.6	-2.30	17.4	17.3	0.08
Mike Dunleavy	51	52	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.45	13	-14	27	12.9	16.1	-3.21	17.5	17.1	0.43
Taj Gibson	48	46	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	-0.30	6	-7	13	13.4	15.4	-2.02	18.2	16.4	1.86
Marquis Teague	20	18	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	0.04	-7	6	-13	16.9	13.6	3.27	16.8	17.4	-0.58
Carlos Boozer	60	61	-0.22	-0.28	0.05	-0.34	4	-5	9	14.5	14.0	0.48	17.4	17.0	0.44
D.J. Augustin	71	73	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.51	6	-7	13	13.6	16.9	-3.27	17.4	16.8	0.58
Luol Deng	80	81	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.44	1	-2	3	14.2	15.7	-1.56	17.2	18.1	-0.90
Jimmy Butler	51	49	-0.52	0.02	-0.53	-0.05	-16	15	-31	16.1	12.2	3.88	17.3	17.3	-0.07
Joakim Noah	64	64	-0.63	0.13	-0.75	-0.28	-12	11	-23	15.2	12.3	2.98	16.5	19.2	-2.74

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.6,0.58,0.52,0.45,0.36,0.35,0.33,0.36,0.38,0.35,0.38,0.32,0.36,0.33,0.35,0.34,0.32,0.29,0.31,0.3,0.33,0.27,0.26,0.28,0.22,0.15,0.12,0.11,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.14,0.21,0.19,0.13,0.12,0.09,0.07,0.08,0.06,0.03,0.1,0.05,0.03,0.09,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 74, IND 55	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.47,0.43,0.43,0.38,0.39,0.32,0.32,0.3,0.36,0.38,0.33,0.35,0.32,0.32,0.29,0.28,0.23,0.25,0.27,0.29,0.21,0.13,0.09,0.07,0.08,0.05,0.1,0.18,0.19,0.17,0.13,0.08,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.08,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0	94.8%
MIN 90, DAL 82	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.44,0.45,0.41,0.37,0.35,0.32,0.36,0.34,0.32,0.26,0.33,0.31,0.37,0.41,0.36,0.29,0.26,0.27,0.33,0.33,0.26,0.23,0.22,0.27,0.21,0.15,0.17,0.13,0.11,0.12,0.15,0.19,0.13,0.15,0.17,0.12,0.05,0.08,0.03,0,0,0.02,0.01,0	94.5%
NYK 107, ATL 101	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.43,0.41,0.41,0.35,0.38,0.32,0.3,0.37,0.4,0.44,0.4,0.33,0.32,0.32,0.29,0.31,0.33,0.36,0.37,0.29,0.2,0.13,0.11,0.12,0.13,0.07,0.06,0.17,0.16,0.18,0.06,0.04,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.13,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.08,0	94.4%