NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	74		Excitement	4.2 [945]		MVP	Reggie Geary (SAS): +2.2%
Indiana Pacers	55		Comeback	1.1 [436]		LVP	Derrick McKey (IND): -18.7%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Reggie Geary	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.04	0.00	0.02	2	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jaren Jackson	0.02	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.00	0.00	-0.01	6	50%	0.03	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Carl Herrera	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.00	-0.00	-0.02	6	46%	0.01	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Willie Burton	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.04	0.00	0.04	1	150%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Malik Rose	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	-0.00	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	-0.00	-0.02	20	53%	0.07	3	-0.07	5	80%	0.01
Will Perdue	-0.02	0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	0.01	8	50%	-0.01	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.02
Monty Williams	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.06	-0.00	-0.01	5	50%	0.03	3	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
Vinny Del Negro	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.12	0.00	-0.02	4	20%	-0.05	3	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
David Robinson	-0.13	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.1,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.14	-0.01	-0.02	13	35%	-0.11	1	-0.02	11	64%	-0.04

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Antonio Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.03	0.02	-0.03	9	45%	0.05	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.00
Austin Croshere	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Travis Best	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	-0.01	-0.02	6	29%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Fred Hoiberg	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	5	20%	-0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jalen Rose	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.04,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.01	11	36%	-0.04	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Mark Jackson	0,0,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.09	-0.02	-0.00	14	39%	-0.07	3	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Chris Mullin	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.05	-0.02	0.03	12	44%	-0.05	2	-0.06	3	100%	0.01
Dale Davis	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.12	-0.01	-0.01	7	19%	-0.07	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Derrick McKey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.18,-0.18,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.19	-0.18	-0.05	-0.04	11	23%	-0.14	3	-0.04	4	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.2	2.4	29.6	18.3	26.4	2.5	30.2	131.7
league avg	29.9	2.8	36.8	15.6	26.0	2.1	43.0	157.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +43.3%

SAS +8.7%

IND -5.9%

SAS +0.5%

SAS +3.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	IND	NBA	SAS	IND	NBA
this game	19.3	16.9	15.6	91.4	70.5	102.5
season	15.9	16.0		100.9	105.3
opponent	16.1	15.9		99.2	97.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	16.3	20.7	19.6	20.7	19.3
IND	18.9	15.3	15.6	18.0	16.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tim Duncan	75	73	0.49	0.01	0.47	0.07	14	5	9	19.2	20.3	-1.12	16.6	20.8	-4.18
David Robinson	61	61	0.47	0.03	0.44	-0.03	17	2	15	19.3	19.3	-0.00	17.3	15.2	2.11
Jaren Jackson	61	59	0.39	0.11	0.28	-0.11	17	2	15	20.9	14.4	6.44	16.4	18.3	-1.89
Vinny Del Negro	67	66	0.38	0.12	0.27	0.00	13	6	7	18.8	21.6	-2.84	17.0	16.2	0.75
Will Perdue	52	49	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.05	9	10	-1	19.4	19.1	0.25	15.1	19.9	-4.74
Reggie Geary	37	34	0.26	0.24	0.01	0.02	8	11	-3	18.4	20.1	-1.69	18.1	15.9	2.24
Monty Williams	26	25	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.10	1	18	-17	20.4	18.8	1.60	17.8	16.5	1.29
Carl Herrera	20	19	0.07	0.43	-0.37	-0.11	6	13	-7	18.2	19.6	-1.39	17.7	16.6	1.13
Willie Burton	3	2	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.15	5	14	-9	13.3	19.5	-6.19	21.0	16.8	4.22
Malik Rose	3	2	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.15	5	14	-9	13.3	19.5	-6.19	21.0	16.8	4.22

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Austin Croshere	15	16	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.12	-4	-15	11	17.2	16.8	0.39	18.6	19.5	-0.91
Travis Best	22	25	-0.16	-0.34	0.19	0.08	-8	-11	3	17.0	16.9	0.10	20.6	18.7	1.89
Derrick McKey	52	54	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.02	-5	-14	9	17.0	16.7	0.35	18.9	20.1	-1.17
Jalen Rose	37	37	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	-0.08	-4	-15	11	17.0	16.8	0.27	19.6	19.0	0.55
Fred Hoiberg	34	36	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	-0.05	-8	-11	3	17.1	16.7	0.36	18.9	19.6	-0.78
Mark Jackson	56	56	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	-0.02	-11	-8	-3	16.9	17.0	-0.10	18.7	20.6	-1.89
Antonio Davis	64	66	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	0.06	-15	-4	-11	16.6	18.3	-1.71	20.0	16.1	3.96
Dale Davis	47	50	-0.47	-0.03	-0.45	0.26	-25	6	-31	16.9	16.8	0.08	18.8	20.0	-1.19
Chris Mullin	63	65	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.06	-15	-4	-11	16.8	17.2	-0.39	19.5	18.6	0.91

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.47,0.43,0.43,0.38,0.39,0.32,0.32,0.3,0.36,0.38,0.33,0.35,0.32,0.32,0.29,0.28,0.23,0.25,0.27,0.29,0.21,0.13,0.09,0.07,0.08,0.05,0.1,0.18,0.19,0.17,0.13,0.08,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.08,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
SEA 108, VAN 94	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.43,0.48,0.49,0.44,0.47,0.47,0.43,0.47,0.38,0.37,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.36,0.29,0.33,0.3,0.23,0.25,0.24,0.23,0.3,0.37,0.29,0.2,0.18,0.09,0.12,0.08,0.04,0.11,0.13,0.17,0.08,0.06,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.01,0,0,0	95.6%
GSW 90, NYK 71	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.5,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.38,0.37,0.4,0.36,0.34,0.33,0.31,0.25,0.29,0.29,0.28,0.19,0.18,0.22,0.24,0.23,0.22,0.19,0.12,0.13,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.09,0.18,0.1,0.13,0.12,0.08,0.1,0.06,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.4%
MIA 91, CLE 81	0.5,0.49,0.5,0.48,0.43,0.44,0.49,0.44,0.45,0.41,0.37,0.31,0.32,0.32,0.36,0.34,0.36,0.35,0.31,0.28,0.27,0.2,0.28,0.27,0.2,0.14,0.21,0.18,0.17,0.17,0.08,0.06,0.09,0.11,0.1,0.08,0.09,0.1,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.4%