NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	102		Excitement	8.4 [208]		MVP	Channing Frye (PHX): +15.4%
Phoenix Suns	106		Comeback	1.2 [669]		LVP	Draymond Green (GSW): -17.9%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Stephen Curry	0.09	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.13,0.13,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.18,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.08,0.2,0.09	0.08	0.04	0.03	17	67%	0.28	6	-0.19	11	91%	0.04
Toney Douglas	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.01	-0.00	3	87%	0.07	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Klay Thompson	0.05	0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.15,0.11,0.08,0.13,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05	0.02	0.04	0.01	17	51%	0.10	2	-0.05	3	100%	0.03
Marreese Speights	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.06,0.06,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	-0.00	6	42%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Harrison Barnes	-0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.02	-0.03	0.01	7	44%	-0.01	1	-0.04	4	50%	-0.02
Kent Bazemore	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.02	-0.01	2	17%	-0.02	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
David Lee	-0.11	0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.03	-0.07	0.01	18	44%	-0.04	2	-0.07	5	80%	-0.01
Andrew Bogut	-0.12	0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.07	-0.04	0.01	6	50%	-0.02	4	-0.10	6	17%	-0.11
Draymond Green	-0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.18,-0.18	-0.03	-0.15	-0.00	4	62%	-0.01	3	-0.17	0	0%	0.00

Phoenix Suns
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Channing Frye	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.06,0.06,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.12	0.04	0.01	12	77%	0.24	2	-0.08	2	50%	-0.01
Goran Dragic	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.07,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.10	0.00	0.02	11	70%	0.15	2	-0.07	8	62%	-0.05
Gerald Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.04	0.03	-0.00	7	56%	0.07	0	0.00	4	75%	0.01
Marcus Morris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.16,0.16,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.02	-0.00	10	50%	0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.03
Eric Bledsoe	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.01	0.01	-0.03	0.03	-0.01	16	55%	0.19	5	-0.18	12	67%	-0.01
Miles Plumlee	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	-0.00	-0.00	6	43%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Archie Goodwin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
PJ Tucker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.00	-0.02	0.02	7	44%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Markieff Morris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.10	-0.04	-0.01	9	35%	-0.03	3	-0.10	2	50%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.3	2.8	28.4	16.3	31.6	1.6	37.7	141.7
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

PHX +35.2%

GSW -8.3%

GSW -0.4%

PHX +25.4%

GSW -2.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	PHX	NBA	GSW	PHX	NBA
this game	13.0	14.6	15.1	98.1	101.0	105.2
season	14.2	14.7		105.9	107.7
opponent	14.9	15.3		105.0	102.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	14.4	13.1	10.6	14.1	13.0
PHX	15.0	13.1	15.1	15.2	14.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kent Bazemore	14	15	0.11	-0.61	0.72	-0.07	6	-10	16	13.1	12.9	0.20	16.2	14.3	1.89
Toney Douglas	13	13	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.03	0	-4	4	13.9	12.8	1.09	13.9	14.7	-0.75
Marreese Speights	27	26	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.00	-2	-2	0	14.2	12.5	1.69	15.4	14.3	1.07
Draymond Green	53	55	-0.14	-0.36	0.21	-0.32	6	-10	16	12.4	13.5	-1.13	14.7	14.4	0.31
Andrew Bogut	81	79	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	-0.16	-2	-2	0	13.0	12.9	0.07	14.8	14.0	0.77
Harrison Barnes	79	80	-0.47	-0.03	-0.45	-0.30	-6	2	-8	12.6	14.1	-1.46	14.2	15.6	-1.39
Stephen Curry	91	92	-0.49	-0.01	-0.49	-0.38	-4	0	-4	12.8	13.9	-1.09	14.7	13.9	0.75
Klay Thompson	86	87	-0.59	0.09	-0.67	-0.29	-10	6	-16	13.0	13.0	-0.03	14.4	15.4	-1.04
David Lee	76	78	-0.61	0.11	-0.73	-0.38	-8	4	-12	13.2	12.2	0.99	14.2	15.6	-1.31

Phoenix Suns
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Eric Bledsoe	89	88	0.65	-0.15	0.79	0.41	8	-4	12	14.6	14.5	0.10	12.9	13.3	-0.40
Marcus Morris	54	53	0.62	-0.12	0.73	0.32	10	-6	16	14.6	14.5	0.06	13.6	12.3	1.37
Channing Frye	67	69	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.26	6	-2	8	14.5	14.7	-0.12	13.1	12.7	0.39
Goran Dragic	80	78	0.34	0.16	0.17	0.34	0	4	-4	14.1	16.2	-2.18	12.7	13.9	-1.27
Markieff Morris	49	47	0.21	0.29	-0.07	0.18	1	3	-2	14.5	14.6	-0.09	13.2	12.8	0.40
PJ Tucker	72	70	0.13	0.37	-0.23	0.34	-7	11	-18	14.6	14.6	-0.08	12.2	14.5	-2.23
Miles Plumlee	63	64	0.08	0.42	-0.35	0.02	2	2	0	14.7	14.5	0.21	12.7	13.4	-0.74
Archie Goodwin	10	9	0.02	0.48	-0.45	0.02	0	4	-4	14.6	14.6	0.02	14.6	12.8	1.73
Gerald Green	41	42	0.02	0.48	-0.46	0.02	0	4	-4	15.6	14.0	1.61	13.7	12.5	1.21

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.5,0.5,0.49,0.59,0.53,0.55,0.51,0.61,0.66,0.65,0.64,0.6,0.6,0.63,0.65,0.68,0.66,0.69,0.74,0.75,0.82,0.67,0.6,0.63,0.69,0.78,0.7,0.71,0.68,0.75,0.56,0.63,0.52,0.54,0.62,0.75,0.72,0.68,0.7,0.76,0.55,0.69,0.96,0.94,0.85,1
Game		Similarity Score
ATL 84, CHI 91	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.5,0.52,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.62,0.66,0.66,0.64,0.62,0.67,0.67,0.7,0.66,0.71,0.71,0.72,0.67,0.63,0.66,0.6,0.61,0.67,0.64,0.71,0.66,0.59,0.63,0.52,0.6,0.62,0.52,0.71,0.67,0.68,0.74,0.76,0.66,0.85,0.93,0.91,0.98,1	93.6%
MIA 95, ORL 104	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.52,0.45,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.49,0.55,0.6,0.64,0.66,0.68,0.62,0.58,0.62,0.63,0.68,0.66,0.76,0.74,0.7,0.7,0.73,0.69,0.66,0.67,0.67,0.64,0.71,0.74,0.73,0.73,0.73,0.64,0.62,0.66,0.82,0.8,0.68,0.64,0.47,0.54,0.69,0.89,0.96,1,1	92.6%
PHX 108, MIN 115	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.48,0.49,0.58,0.57,0.55,0.6,0.66,0.6,0.65,0.6,0.56,0.6,0.65,0.63,0.61,0.68,0.73,0.81,0.79,0.8,0.73,0.74,0.77,0.75,0.72,0.73,0.79,0.68,0.72,0.66,0.64,0.64,0.66,0.62,0.62,0.72,0.73,0.64,0.8,0.83,0.69,0.85,0.98,1,1	92.5%