NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Houston Rockets	116		Excitement	8.0 [258]		MVP	Patrick Beverley (HOU): +30.6%
Golden State Warriors	112		Comeback	1.4 [462]		LVP	Klay Thompson (GSW): -18.5%

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Patrick Beverley	0.31	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.23,0.23,0.29,0.31	0.15	0.17	0.01	9	89%	0.31	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Harden	0.19	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.08,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.19,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.18,0.19	-0.00	0.18	-0.01	22	50%	0.25	3	-0.06	8	62%	-0.04
Chandler Parsons	0.16	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.14,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.08,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.14	0.03	0.02	14	74%	0.22	2	-0.06	3	100%	0.02
Dwight Howard	0.09	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.08	0.05	0.03	6	95%	0.23	5	-0.14	7	100%	0.03
Francisco Garcia	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.03	0.02	0.00	5	60%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Omri Casspi	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	-0.02	8	48%	0.00	1	-0.00	5	60%	-0.02
Jeremy Lin	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.03	-0.02	0.02	4	67%	0.03	4	-0.11	4	75%	0.00
Terrence Jones	-0.10	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.03	-0.04	0.02	8	35%	-0.10	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Donatas Motiejunas	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.05	-0.07	0.00	3	20%	-0.11	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.04

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Marreese Speights	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.05	0.09	0.00	14	53%	0.14	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
David Lee	0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.10	-0.01	0.03	13	68%	0.10	2	-0.04	8	87%	0.02
Hilton Armstrong	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andrew Bogut	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	-0.00	0.01	7	71%	0.06	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Kent Bazemore	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Harrison Barnes	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.05	-0.05	0.04	16	62%	0.04	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Toney Douglas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	3	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Draymond Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.04	-0.05	0.00	7	43%	-0.02	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Stephen Curry	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.11,0.01,-0.15,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.04	-0.09	0.01	12	57%	0.14	6	-0.28	11	82%	0.04
Klay Thompson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.19,-0.19	-0.19	-0.09	-0.08	0.02	17	41%	-0.09	3	-0.10	3	67%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.8	3.5	29.5	17.5	28.5	3.4	45.4	155.6
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

HOU +55.3%

GSW -0.5%

GSW -33.0%

HOU +23.0%

HOU +5.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	HOU	GSW	NBA	HOU	GSW	NBA
this game	15.1	13.3	15.1	114.9	109.8	105.2
season	14.3	14.2		109.5	105.9
opponent	15.3	15.2		102.0	105.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
HOU	13.1	17.0	17.2	13.5	15.1
GSW	13.5	12.5	13.5	13.7	13.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
James Harden	90	91	0.89	-0.39	1.29	0.34	19	-15	34	14.6	19.3	-4.72	13.3	13.5	-0.16
Terrence Jones	73	72	0.73	-0.23	0.97	0.24	17	-13	30	15.0	15.1	-0.10	14.0	11.7	2.24
Patrick Beverley	63	63	0.62	-0.12	0.75	0.30	11	-7	18	15.1	15.1	-0.02	13.9	12.4	1.42
Dwight Howard	68	68	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.35	-2	6	-8	14.7	15.8	-1.16	12.4	15.1	-2.66
Chandler Parsons	73	73	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.27	0	4	-4	13.9	18.1	-4.25	13.5	13.0	0.49
Omri Casspi	41	43	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.21	0	4	-4	16.4	14.2	2.18	14.2	12.7	1.51
Francisco Garcia	36	37	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	0.15	-7	11	-18	17.1	13.9	3.22	12.7	13.7	-0.96
Jeremy Lin	44	45	-0.21	0.71	-0.92	0.11	-11	15	-26	15.6	14.7	0.88	12.2	14.2	-2.07
Donatas Motiejunas	17	18	-0.26	0.76	-1.02	-0.05	-7	11	-18	15.7	14.9	0.77	13.7	13.2	0.50

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Toney Douglas	29	27	0.20	-0.70	0.91	-0.15	12	-16	28	12.9	13.5	-0.53	17.0	14.4	2.69
Hilton Armstrong	10	9	0.14	-0.64	0.78	-0.04	6	-10	16	9.6	13.7	-4.12	15.6	15.0	0.53
Marreese Speights	33	31	0.04	-0.54	0.58	0.04	0	-4	4	14.1	12.9	1.15	15.4	14.9	0.46
Kent Bazemore	1	1	-0.02	-0.48	0.45	0.04	-2	-2	0	1.0	13.4	-12.44	5.0	15.2	-10.17
Harrison Barnes	82	81	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.33	8	-12	20	12.6	16.2	-3.59	14.4	17.7	-3.28
Andrew Bogut	54	54	-0.19	-0.31	0.13	-0.16	-1	-3	2	13.9	12.6	1.30	16.4	13.6	2.76
Draymond Green	46	47	-0.54	0.04	-0.57	-0.21	-11	7	-18	14.1	12.7	1.45	14.1	15.9	-1.72
Klay Thompson	94	94	-0.58	0.08	-0.66	-0.38	-7	3	-10	13.4	11.9	1.56	15.1	14.6	0.53
David Lee	81	80	-0.63	0.13	-0.75	-0.42	-7	3	-10	13.0	14.4	-1.34	14.5	17.2	-2.74
Stephen Curry	80	81	-0.84	0.34	-1.18	-0.31	-18	14	-32	13.7	11.8	1.96	15.2	14.5	0.71

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.57,0.52,0.52,0.51,0.43,0.35,0.38,0.4,0.42,0.48,0.51,0.36,0.32,0.35,0.31,0.32,0.25,0.18,0.2,0.18,0.25,0.3,0.29,0.37,0.39,0.45,0.33,0.32,0.35,0.28,0.2,0.19,0.15,0.15,0.22,0.34,0.38,0.53,0.47,0.29,0.34,0.55,0.37,0.11,0.02,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIN 102, CHI 92	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.54,0.48,0.44,0.42,0.34,0.31,0.22,0.24,0.23,0.24,0.21,0.25,0.27,0.3,0.32,0.31,0.22,0.33,0.21,0.29,0.2,0.25,0.21,0.3,0.18,0.22,0.26,0.43,0.52,0.53,0.59,0.29,0.22,0.38,0.36,0.06,0.01,0	92.3%
ATL 96, DET 89	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.53,0.53,0.45,0.47,0.39,0.36,0.34,0.37,0.44,0.44,0.38,0.33,0.31,0.32,0.39,0.27,0.28,0.31,0.22,0.37,0.34,0.42,0.49,0.45,0.39,0.32,0.31,0.38,0.31,0.26,0.21,0.3,0.26,0.18,0.17,0.32,0.36,0.35,0.17,0.31,0.36,0.14,0.05,0	91.0%
DAL 103, MEM 95	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.47,0.4,0.39,0.35,0.31,0.28,0.32,0.38,0.38,0.34,0.31,0.33,0.42,0.41,0.29,0.31,0.41,0.41,0.3,0.32,0.43,0.39,0.39,0.42,0.35,0.45,0.45,0.4,0.37,0.25,0.22,0.3,0.34,0.38,0.47,0.36,0.34,0.34,0.61,0.37,0.22,0.04,0	90.9%