NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	93		Excitement	7.9 [271]		MVP	Stephen Curry (GSW): +34.8%
Golden State Warriors	95		Comeback	30.1 [66]		LVP	Klay Thompson (GSW): -21.0%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dirk Nowitzki	0.16	0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.16	0.09	0.09	0.02	14	64%	0.24	2	-0.08	5	80%	0.01
Shawn Marion	0.05	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.02	0.02	-0.01	10	55%	0.06	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.01
Jae Crowder	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.01	-0.01	6	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jose Calderon	0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.02	0.06	-0.04	0.00	15	58%	0.03	1	-0.01	1	100%	0.01
Shane Larkin	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.04	0.02	-0.00	2	50%	0.03	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Vince Carter	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	9	50%	0.02	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Samuel Dalembert	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.00	-0.00	4	0%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeJuan Blair	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.10	-0.00	-0.01	8	25%	-0.03	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Monta Ellis	-0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.17	-0.01	-0.17	-0.01	20	46%	-0.07	1	-0.10	6	83%	-0.08

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Stephen Curry	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.1,-0.12,-0.15,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.06,0.19,0.35	0.35	0.04	0.30	-0.01	25	65%	0.52	8	-0.17	1	100%	0.02
Draymond Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.28	0.28	0.04	0.24	0.00	5	75%	0.35	1	-0.07	2	0%	-0.03
Toney Douglas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.00	-0.01	3	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kent Bazemore	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Harrison Barnes	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.04,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	16	47%	0.02	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.03
Andrew Bogut	0,0,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	5	60%	0.04	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Hilton Armstrong	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.05
Marreese Speights	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	2	17%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
David Lee	0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.13,-0.13,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.04	-0.06	0.01	16	44%	-0.07	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Klay Thompson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21	-0.21	-0.12	-0.08	0.01	14	37%	-0.09	4	-0.12	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.8	2.8	27.8	16.8	27.3	3.5	35.4	139.3
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW +53.0%

DAL -5.3%

GSW +3.5%

DAL -1.4%

GSW +0.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	GSW	NBA	DAL	GSW	NBA
this game	15.4	14.3	15.1	95.9	97.9	105.2
season	15.3	14.2		109.0	105.9
opponent	15.3	15.0		102.0	107.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	13.9	16.0	15.9	16.0	15.4
GSW	12.4	14.0	16.1	15.3	14.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jae Crowder	39	37	0.41	-0.91	1.31	0.32	3	-5	8	15.1	15.6	-0.47	14.1	14.4	-0.37
Shane Larkin	21	22	0.20	-0.70	0.89	0.11	3	-5	8	16.5	15.1	1.40	15.6	13.9	1.66
Samuel Dalembert	47	48	0.11	-0.61	0.71	-0.19	10	-12	22	15.5	15.3	0.21	14.3	14.3	0.01
DeJuan Blair	48	47	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	0.13	-11	9	-20	15.6	15.2	0.40	14.3	14.3	-0.06
Vince Carter	46	46	-0.21	-0.29	0.07	-0.36	5	-7	12	14.9	15.8	-0.89	15.1	13.6	1.44
Shawn Marion	74	72	-0.58	0.08	-0.66	-0.52	-2	0	-2	15.1	16.1	-0.98	14.0	15.2	-1.20
Jose Calderon	71	71	-0.66	0.16	-0.82	-0.54	-4	2	-6	15.2	16.0	-0.79	13.8	15.6	-1.73
Monta Ellis	71	71	-0.71	0.21	-0.92	-0.50	-7	5	-12	15.8	14.2	1.62	14.4	14.0	0.37
Dirk Nowitzki	68	71	-0.86	0.36	-1.21	-0.65	-7	5	-12	15.3	15.5	-0.19	14.2	14.5	-0.26

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Andrew Bogut	70	70	0.80	-0.30	1.10	0.74	2	0	2	14.3	14.4	-0.14	15.9	14.0	1.97
Draymond Green	55	56	0.67	-0.17	0.85	0.53	5	-3	8	14.6	14.0	0.63	15.4	15.4	-0.02
Stephen Curry	86	88	0.54	-0.04	0.59	0.40	5	-3	8	14.8	10.8	3.94	15.7	12.2	3.48
Harrison Barnes	88	89	0.54	-0.04	0.57	0.42	4	-2	6	14.4	13.6	0.83	15.6	13.2	2.32
Klay Thompson	74	71	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.21	-2	4	-6	14.2	14.5	-0.28	15.0	16.3	-1.32
Hilton Armstrong	13	13	-0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.09	3	-1	4	17.7	13.8	3.91	14.8	15.5	-0.62
David Lee	76	77	-0.02	0.52	-0.53	-0.07	2	0	2	13.8	16.0	-2.16	15.4	15.3	0.04
Kent Bazemore	2	1	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.04	-2	4	-6	1.5	14.6	-13.08	16.0	15.4	0.62
Toney Douglas	10	9	-0.06	0.56	-0.61	0.03	-3	5	-8	11.9	14.6	-2.69	12.2	15.7	-3.48
Marreese Speights	11	11	-0.11	0.61	-0.71	0.01	-4	6	-10	13.3	14.4	-1.17	13.2	15.7	-2.48

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.5,0.54,0.56,0.49,0.47,0.43,0.43,0.4,0.34,0.35,0.32,0.24,0.33,0.31,0.35,0.28,0.29,0.29,0.19,0.12,0.14,0.2,0.16,0.16,0.11,0.22,0.21,0.26,0.22,0.18,0.12,0.11,0.18,0.26,0.18,0.09,0.13,0.1,0.12,0.15,0.46,0.31,0.22,0.1,0.26,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 90, POR 92	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.55,0.51,0.45,0.37,0.38,0.45,0.43,0.42,0.42,0.32,0.35,0.33,0.25,0.25,0.29,0.26,0.27,0.25,0.16,0.19,0.18,0.22,0.17,0.19,0.2,0.17,0.16,0.2,0.23,0.18,0.3,0.26,0.21,0.11,0.05,0.08,0.09,0.22,0.45,0.22,0.32,0.16,1	91.9%
TOR 101, CLE 105	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.53,0.5,0.45,0.38,0.35,0.32,0.35,0.38,0.47,0.36,0.31,0.28,0.3,0.29,0.29,0.24,0.25,0.27,0.27,0.26,0.21,0.25,0.19,0.19,0.16,0.15,0.13,0.11,0.14,0.13,0.22,0.19,0.18,0.13,0.09,0.13,0.15,0.22,0.31,0.37,0.29,0.58,1	91.1%
DAL 87, ATL 88	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.56,0.56,0.51,0.55,0.59,0.49,0.45,0.44,0.37,0.36,0.3,0.31,0.29,0.28,0.22,0.23,0.15,0.13,0.15,0.22,0.14,0.19,0.25,0.17,0.19,0.12,0.08,0.09,0.05,0.07,0.1,0.09,0.1,0.08,0.1,0.11,0.15,0.17,0.15,0.1,0.14,0.15,0.1,0.28,1	91.0%