NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	90		Excitement	8.6 [172]		MVP	Wesley Matthews (POR): +51.3%
Portland Trail Blazers	92		Comeback	23.1 [28]		LVP	LaMarcus Aldridge (POR): -28.5%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Bosh	0.45	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.1,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.28,0.45	0.16	0.30	0.00	18	71%	0.50	2	-0.05	5	60%	-0.01
Norris Cole	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.06	0.03	-0.00	3	100%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ray Allen	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0,0,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.21,0.21,0.22,0.05	0.00	0.02	-0.02	11	58%	0.10	3	-0.05	4	75%	-0.02
Udonis Haslem	-0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Mike Miller	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.07	-0.01	-0.02	6	42%	-0.00	3	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Joel Anthony	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Mario Chalmers	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.15	-0.02	-0.13	0.00	2	50%	-0.13	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	-0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.03	-0.12	0.01	18	43%	-0.10	1	-0.07	6	100%	0.03
LeBron James	-0.20	0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.2,-0.2	-0.12	-0.07	0.00	16	41%	-0.10	4	-0.10	5	40%	-0.04

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Wesley Matthews	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.11,0.51	0.51	0.03	0.48	-0.00	18	49%	0.53	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Nicolas Batum	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.09,0.23,0.23,0.31,0.31,0.31	0.31	0.15	0.18	0.01	15	68%	0.36	2	-0.05	11	82%	0.05
Ronnie Price	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.03	0.00	1	83%	0.07	1	-0.03	4	75%	-0.01
Joel Freeland	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luke Babbitt	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sasha Pavlovic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	3	50%	0.01	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Jared Jeffries	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Damian Lillard	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.11,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.05	-0.11	0.00	11	42%	-0.12	2	-0.05	2	0%	-0.09
JJ Hickson	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.14,-0.23,-0.23	-0.23	-0.09	-0.14	-0.00	11	33%	-0.18	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
LaMarcus Aldridge	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.25,-0.27,-0.29	-0.29	-0.09	-0.19	0.01	19	42%	-0.22	3	-0.07	10	80%	-0.07

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.1	2.8	31.0	18.6	24.4	3.5	40.2	144.5
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA -2.5%

POR +12.9%

POR +29.1%

POR +7.7%

POR +2.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	POR	NBA	MIA	POR	NBA
this game	15.0	15.1	15.4	93.8	96.8	104.1
season	15.7	15.8		110.2	104.3
opponent	15.3	15.9		107.6	102.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	13.2	15.4	16.0	15.8	15.0
POR	15.1	15.2	15.3	14.8	15.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Norris Cole	24	24	0.29	-0.79	1.08	-0.03	11	-13	24	15.8	14.8	1.01	14.9	15.2	-0.28
Joel Anthony	23	22	-0.05	-0.45	0.39	0.06	-4	2	-6	15.9	14.8	1.10	14.7	15.3	-0.58
Mike Miller	48	47	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	-0.07	0	-2	2	15.2	14.9	0.31	14.9	15.3	-0.38
Mario Chalmers	37	38	-0.16	-0.34	0.17	-0.05	-4	2	-6	14.1	15.6	-1.55	15.3	15.0	0.23
Udonis Haslem	54	54	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	-0.26	1	-3	4	14.5	15.7	-1.21	15.2	15.0	0.22
Chris Bosh	77	78	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.51	6	-8	14	15.4	13.5	1.88	15.6	12.9	2.73
Ray Allen	59	56	-0.49	-0.01	-0.47	-0.55	2	-4	6	15.8	13.9	1.90	14.7	15.7	-1.05
LeBron James	86	85	-0.67	0.17	-0.84	-0.41	-9	7	-16	14.6	18.5	-3.87	15.1	15.7	-0.64
Dwyane Wade	72	71	-0.79	0.29	-1.08	-0.41	-13	11	-24	14.8	15.8	-1.01	15.2	14.9	0.28

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Wesley Matthews	80	81	0.88	-0.38	1.26	0.44	15	-13	28	14.9	16.5	-1.67	14.5	18.0	-3.52
LaMarcus Aldridge	83	85	0.84	-0.34	1.19	0.40	15	-13	28	14.8	17.5	-2.72	14.8	17.0	-2.22
JJ Hickson	69	71	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.41	5	-3	8	14.9	15.8	-0.94	15.0	15.1	-0.12
Nicolas Batum	84	85	0.54	-0.04	0.57	0.48	2	0	2	15.1	15.3	-0.17	15.4	12.4	3.01
Damian Lillard	81	82	0.50	-0.00	0.50	0.41	3	-1	4	15.7	11.8	3.92	15.2	14.3	0.87
Luke Babbitt	5	4	-0.10	0.60	-0.69	0.05	-5	7	-12	20.4	14.8	5.57	19.0	14.9	4.14
Joel Freeland	13	12	-0.11	0.61	-0.72	0.06	-6	8	-14	18.1	14.7	3.42	14.7	15.1	-0.32
Jared Jeffries	18	18	-0.15	0.65	-0.79	-0.06	-3	5	-8	14.8	15.2	-0.36	15.9	14.8	1.06
Sasha Pavlovic	20	20	-0.23	0.73	-0.96	0.06	-10	12	-22	15.3	15.1	0.28	15.6	14.9	0.72
Ronnie Price	22	22	-0.23	0.73	-0.96	-0.05	-6	8	-14	13.2	15.7	-2.47	14.5	15.2	-0.63

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.55,0.51,0.45,0.37,0.38,0.45,0.43,0.42,0.42,0.32,0.35,0.33,0.25,0.25,0.29,0.26,0.27,0.25,0.16,0.19,0.18,0.22,0.17,0.19,0.2,0.17,0.16,0.2,0.23,0.18,0.3,0.26,0.21,0.11,0.05,0.08,0.09,0.22,0.45,0.22,0.32,0.16,1
Game		Similarity Score
WAS 80, TOR 82	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.49,0.42,0.36,0.36,0.43,0.39,0.37,0.4,0.42,0.37,0.42,0.36,0.32,0.29,0.35,0.42,0.32,0.29,0.31,0.25,0.18,0.16,0.12,0.07,0.1,0.11,0.17,0.18,0.2,0.29,0.3,0.26,0.21,0.3,0.3,0.21,0.14,0.19,0.08,0.12,0.33,0.33,0.29,0.45,0.16,1	92.5%
TOR 101, CLE 105	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.53,0.5,0.45,0.38,0.35,0.32,0.35,0.38,0.47,0.36,0.31,0.28,0.3,0.29,0.29,0.24,0.25,0.27,0.27,0.26,0.21,0.25,0.19,0.19,0.16,0.15,0.13,0.11,0.14,0.13,0.22,0.19,0.18,0.13,0.09,0.13,0.15,0.22,0.31,0.37,0.29,0.58,1	91.9%
DAL 93, GSW 95	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.5,0.54,0.56,0.49,0.47,0.43,0.43,0.4,0.34,0.35,0.32,0.24,0.33,0.31,0.35,0.28,0.29,0.29,0.19,0.12,0.14,0.2,0.16,0.16,0.11,0.22,0.21,0.26,0.22,0.18,0.12,0.11,0.18,0.26,0.18,0.09,0.13,0.1,0.12,0.15,0.46,0.31,0.22,0.1,0.26,1	91.9%