NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	112		Excitement	6.8 [461]		MVP	Nate Robinson (DEN): +26.9%
Toronto Raptors	98		Comeback	3.1 [280]		LVP	Randy Foye (DEN): -9.3%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nate Robinson	0.27	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.09,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.2,0.2,0.22,0.22,0.26,0.27,0.27	0.18	0.12	0.03	14	79%	0.27	1	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Darrell Arthur	0.26	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.21,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26	0.14	0.13	0.01	7	100%	0.26	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andre Miller	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.05	0.04	0.01	7	64%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jordan Hamilton	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.02	0.05	-0.00	8	56%	0.09	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Kenneth Faried	0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.00	0.02	-0.01	10	55%	0.08	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Ty Lawson	-0.02	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.05	-0.04	-0.07	13	53%	0.13	5	-0.15	4	75%	-0.00
Evan Fournier	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Timofey Mozgov	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.00	-0.01	0.02	12	53%	0.06	2	-0.08	6	67%	-0.01
Wilson Chandler	-0.04	0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.00	-0.02	0.01	6	42%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
JJ Hickson	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	2	-0.07	2	50%	-0.01
Randy Foye	-0.09	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.10	-0.01	-0.01	7	25%	-0.05	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Terrence Ross	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.04	0.05	-0.03	8	56%	0.13	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Steve Novak	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.05	0.03	-0.00	4	75%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tyler Hansbrough	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.01	0.03	-0.03	4	58%	0.07	1	-0.01	4	75%	0.01
Jonas Valanciunas	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.01	-0.01	16	50%	0.06	1	-0.03	4	50%	-0.04
Rudy Gay	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.03	0.01	-0.01	23	46%	0.06	2	-0.06	4	75%	-0.01
Amir Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	-0.01	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Julyan Stone	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	2	0%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Lowry	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.04	-0.03	15	50%	0.04	5	-0.11	4	100%	0.02
DeMar DeRozan	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	-0.06	-0.03	14	47%	-0.03	3	-0.05	8	75%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.5	2.0	26.0	15.8	25.2	2.6	38.3	135.3
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +51.8%

TOR -2.4%

DEN +5.8%

TOR -7.4%

DEN +2.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	TOR	NBA	DEN	TOR	NBA
this game	13.9	15.6	15.1	115.5	100.0	105.2
season	14.0	15.9		104.5	107.2
opponent	15.1	14.9		104.2	106.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	12.7	17.0	13.2	13.3	13.9
TOR	13.4	16.5	15.6	17.3	15.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Timofey Mozgov	62	64	0.71	-0.21	0.93	-0.05	26	-12	38	14.1	13.7	0.39	15.7	15.5	0.19
Andre Miller	45	45	0.53	-0.03	0.55	-0.15	23	-9	32	14.5	13.5	0.99	16.7	14.7	1.99
Darrell Arthur	44	44	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.08	15	-1	16	15.1	13.0	2.07	16.3	15.0	1.24
Nate Robinson	46	46	0.49	0.01	0.49	-0.12	21	-7	28	14.5	13.5	1.03	16.5	14.8	1.75
Jordan Hamilton	34	34	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.01	15	-1	16	15.1	13.3	1.86	16.1	15.3	0.81
Evan Fournier	13	13	0.25	0.25	-0.00	0.07	6	8	-2	13.7	14.0	-0.28	13.1	16.0	-2.90
Ty Lawson	62	63	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.09	1	13	-12	13.2	15.3	-2.06	14.4	17.7	-3.21
Wilson Chandler	63	64	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.08	-1	15	-16	13.3	15.1	-1.86	15.3	16.1	-0.81
Kenneth Faried	41	41	-0.14	0.64	-0.79	0.18	-11	25	-36	13.5	14.3	-0.78	15.5	15.6	-0.09
JJ Hickson	36	36	-0.20	0.70	-0.91	0.09	-10	24	-34	13.4	14.2	-0.83	15.5	15.6	-0.10
Randy Foye	39	40	-0.28	0.78	-1.05	0.16	-15	29	-44	13.4	14.3	-0.88	15.2	15.9	-0.66

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rudy Gay	78	77	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.09	0	-14	14	15.9	14.3	1.62	14.2	12.9	1.24
Julyan Stone	15	17	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.06	-1	-13	12	17.9	15.2	2.76	17.4	13.2	4.14
Tyler Hansbrough	70	68	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.02	-5	-9	4	15.8	15.1	0.73	13.2	15.7	-2.55
Jonas Valanciunas	74	72	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	-0.36	5	-19	24	15.9	14.8	1.06	14.4	12.5	1.96
DeMar DeRozan	77	75	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	0.03	-9	-5	-4	14.5	19.6	-5.13	13.1	16.9	-3.78
Amir Johnson	30	31	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	0.08	-16	2	-18	15.0	15.9	-0.90	13.7	14.0	-0.34
Kyle Lowry	83	80	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.03	-13	-1	-12	15.2	17.9	-2.76	13.2	17.4	-4.14
Terrence Ross	40	43	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	0.13	-19	5	-24	15.7	15.5	0.18	14.5	13.5	1.07
Steve Novak	23	22	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.12	-12	-2	-10	17.3	15.1	2.24	15.8	13.4	2.43

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.55,0.61,0.66,0.7,0.71,0.74,0.73,0.71,0.68,0.65,0.64,0.71,0.62,0.56,0.63,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.58,0.55,0.52,0.59,0.63,0.52,0.52,0.34,0.3,0.18,0.21,0.19,0.17,0.12,0.17,0.1,0.07,0.02,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
CHH 98, NJN 87	0.5,0.49,0.5,0.52,0.54,0.59,0.62,0.66,0.67,0.69,0.72,0.69,0.64,0.66,0.68,0.7,0.66,0.65,0.65,0.64,0.58,0.64,0.54,0.44,0.51,0.49,0.42,0.48,0.45,0.48,0.58,0.55,0.62,0.58,0.63,0.52,0.52,0.42,0.34,0.43,0.29,0.28,0.17,0.24,0.09,0.07,0,0,0,0	94.1%
PHI 115, VAN 104	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.61,0.66,0.71,0.67,0.65,0.7,0.71,0.7,0.65,0.62,0.6,0.55,0.58,0.63,0.58,0.53,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.5,0.43,0.46,0.52,0.63,0.59,0.55,0.45,0.41,0.56,0.52,0.48,0.38,0.3,0.15,0.09,0.12,0.11,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0	93.8%
SEA 99, MIL 88	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.6,0.6,0.57,0.61,0.62,0.64,0.68,0.69,0.74,0.71,0.66,0.68,0.66,0.64,0.67,0.65,0.63,0.64,0.59,0.64,0.58,0.54,0.51,0.6,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.55,0.59,0.68,0.73,0.6,0.56,0.38,0.3,0.21,0.09,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.07,0.01,0,0,0	93.4%