NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Charlotte Hornets	98		Excitement	6.3 [535]		MVP	Otis Thorpe (CHH): +15.6%
New Jersey Nets	87		Comeback	2.7 [381]		LVP	Jamal Mashburn (CHH): -27.6%

Charlotte Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Otis Thorpe	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.08	0.08	0.00	4	100%	0.16	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
David Wesley	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.08,0.07,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.06	0.06	0.00	18	68%	0.19	4	-0.08	8	75%	-0.01
Baron Davis	0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.05	0.00	-0.01	13	65%	0.09	2	-0.03	5	100%	0.03
Jamaal Magloire	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.01	0.00	6	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.03
P.J. Brown	-0.02	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.01	-0.02	0.01	8	55%	-0.02	0	0.00	6	100%	0.03
Hersey Hawkins	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.00	-0.02	0.01	3	50%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Elden Campbell	-0.12	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.09	-0.04	-0.01	7	25%	-0.08	1	-0.04	2	0%	-0.04
Eddie Robinson	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.08	-0.06	-0.00	3	0%	-0.14	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.06
Jamal Mashburn	-0.28	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.16,-0.19,-0.19,-0.21,-0.21,-0.24,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28,-0.23,-0.3,-0.3,-0.3,-0.3,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28	-0.25	-0.06	-0.04	14	34%	-0.11	7	-0.17	7	43%	-0.03

New Jersey Nets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Johnny Newman	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.02	-0.00	8	55%	0.04	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.00
Kevin Ollie	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Stephon Marbury	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.08	-0.07	0.01	22	63%	0.14	3	-0.14	8	100%	0.06
Jim McIlvaine	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	4	50%	-0.02	0	0.00	8	75%	0.00
Evan Eschmeyer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	0.01	3	33%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kendall Gill	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.04,0,0,0,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.08	-0.02	-0.03	17	42%	-0.00	2	-0.07	4	50%	-0.01
Sherman Douglas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	2	60%	0.02	2	-0.09	1	100%	0.00
Kenyon Martin	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.14,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.12	-0.05	-0.01	14	29%	-0.13	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Stephen Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	-0.10	-0.09	-0.01	9	30%	-0.14	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.0	1.8	31.0	15.5	29.8	1.8	28.2	133.1
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHH +37.0%

NJN -14.3%

CHH +8.9%

CHH +6.8%

CHH +11.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHH	NJN	NBA	CHH	NJN	NBA
this game	16.7	14.8	15.5	107.7	94.6	100.9
season	15.8	15.5		99.7	97.8
opponent	15.1	15.6		103.0	97.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHH	15.7	17.8	14.0	20.2	16.7
NJN	12.6	21.0	13.1	14.0	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Charlotte Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
David Wesley	77	77	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.18	12	-1	13	16.2	19.4	-3.18	14.6	16.1	-1.57
Jamaal Magloire	48	48	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.02	16	-5	21	14.7	18.9	-4.24	15.3	14.3	1.00
Hersey Hawkins	34	35	0.42	0.08	0.33	0.03	13	-2	15	14.9	17.7	-2.81	15.2	14.6	0.62
Otis Thorpe	23	24	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.08	7	4	3	16.4	16.8	-0.37	15.6	14.5	1.04
Eddie Robinson	23	21	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.10	6	5	1	19.8	15.6	4.22	16.4	14.3	2.09
Jamal Mashburn	70	73	0.23	0.27	-0.03	0.09	5	6	-1	16.7	16.7	-0.06	14.4	16.3	-1.89
P.J. Brown	68	68	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.09	4	7	-3	16.8	16.4	0.37	14.5	15.6	-1.04
Baron Davis	69	70	0.04	0.46	-0.42	0.13	-3	14	-17	17.0	15.5	1.54	14.8	14.8	0.06
Elden Campbell	43	44	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.16	-5	16	-21	18.9	14.7	4.24	14.3	15.3	-1.00

New Jersey Nets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jim McIlvaine	6	6	-0.01	-0.48	0.47	0.01	-1	-10	9	23.2	14.2	8.93	28.7	15.8	12.84
Kevin Ollie	3	2	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	-0.01	-2	-9	7	24.3	14.5	9.84	25.5	16.5	9.03
Evan Eschmeyer	55	52	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.10	1	-12	13	14.4	15.4	-1.03	15.2	18.6	-3.31
Sherman Douglas	18	15	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.02	-3	-8	5	17.2	14.2	2.92	19.6	16.1	3.51
Stephen Jackson	57	56	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.19	1	-12	13	14.7	15.1	-0.39	17.1	16.1	1.00
Kenyon Martin	74	76	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.19	-4	-7	3	14.7	15.3	-0.58	16.9	15.6	1.28
Johnny Newman	41	41	-0.35	-0.15	-0.21	0.03	-13	2	-15	16.2	13.7	2.58	17.9	15.7	2.24
Stephon Marbury	74	76	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.15	-8	-3	-5	14.2	17.2	-2.92	16.1	19.6	-3.51
Kendall Gill	83	83	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.18	-8	-3	-5	13.9	23.6	-9.69	15.6	27.9	-12.28
Aaron Williams	49	48	-0.61	0.11	-0.71	-0.08	-18	7	-25	14.4	15.3	-0.83	16.4	17.0	-0.62

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.5,0.52,0.54,0.59,0.62,0.66,0.67,0.69,0.72,0.69,0.64,0.66,0.68,0.7,0.66,0.65,0.65,0.64,0.58,0.64,0.54,0.44,0.51,0.49,0.42,0.48,0.45,0.48,0.58,0.55,0.62,0.58,0.63,0.52,0.52,0.42,0.34,0.43,0.29,0.28,0.17,0.24,0.09,0.07,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
DEN 112, TOR 98	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.55,0.61,0.66,0.7,0.71,0.74,0.73,0.71,0.68,0.65,0.64,0.71,0.62,0.56,0.63,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.58,0.55,0.52,0.59,0.63,0.52,0.52,0.34,0.3,0.18,0.21,0.19,0.17,0.12,0.17,0.1,0.07,0.02,0,0	94.1%
CLE 103, LAL 84	0.5,0.51,0.53,0.57,0.53,0.52,0.49,0.57,0.61,0.6,0.67,0.65,0.66,0.65,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.6,0.54,0.54,0.59,0.56,0.56,0.61,0.59,0.49,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.58,0.59,0.56,0.67,0.56,0.6,0.62,0.52,0.48,0.43,0.23,0.11,0.15,0.09,0.1,0,0,0,0	92.6%
ATL 85, DET 72	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.54,0.57,0.59,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.57,0.58,0.58,0.6,0.64,0.64,0.72,0.67,0.65,0.68,0.65,0.59,0.58,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.36,0.45,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.38,0.43,0.43,0.3,0.19,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.04,0.02,0,0,0	92.6%