NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	88		Excitement	5.8 [628]		MVP	Amir Johnson (TOR): +17.6%
Toronto Raptors	97		Comeback	2.2 [668]		LVP	Carlos Boozer (CHI): -13.3%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Richard Hamilton	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.01	0.01	-0.04	5	70%	0.08	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jimmy Butler	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.00	0.02	-0.01	6	50%	0.05	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Marco Belinelli	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	7	60%	0.06	1	-0.05	1	100%	0.01
Luol Deng	0.00	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.01	-0.01	9	45%	0.00	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Nate Robinson	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	0.01	15	57%	0.12	4	-0.12	0	0%	0.00
Nazr Mohammed	-0.03	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.02	-0.02	0.03	12	53%	-0.01	1	-0.01	6	67%	-0.00
Malcolm Thomas	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kirk Hinrich	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.08	-0.03	0.00	3	50%	0.01	4	-0.12	0	0%	0.00
Carlos Boozer	-0.13	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.00	-0.10	0.03	19	49%	-0.05	2	-0.08	1	100%	0.00

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Amir Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.10	0.07	-0.01	15	71%	0.24	3	-0.07	4	75%	-0.00
DeMar DeRozan	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.04	0.02	-0.00	10	68%	0.20	4	-0.14	8	87%	0.07
Quincy Acy	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.05	0.01	0.00	5	62%	0.06	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.00
Aaron Gray	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	5	50%	0.05	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.02
Kyle Lowry	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.01	10	52%	0.03	1	-0.02	5	100%	0.02
Alan Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	0.00	4	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
John Lucas III	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.02	-0.02	4	0%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rudy Gay	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	0.01	0.03	19	50%	0.03	4	-0.10	8	75%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.4	2.4	29.5	15.5	26.5	2.3	33.5	134.1
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +1.8%

TOR +28.2%

CHI -1.2%

TOR +11.6%

TOR +9.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	TOR	NBA	CHI	TOR	NBA
this game	17.1	15.1	15.4	97.8	109.0	104.1
season	16.6	16.1		101.7	104.4
opponent	15.3	15.2		105.8	102.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	17.7	20.0	16.3	14.7	17.1
TOR	13.1	14.9	16.5	16.0	15.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Malcolm Thomas	5	5	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	0.01	-2	-7	5	20.0	16.9	3.08	15.6	15.0	0.55
Marco Belinelli	48	47	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.19	2	-11	13	16.5	17.8	-1.26	15.6	14.5	1.05
Carlos Boozer	58	61	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	-0.21	1	-10	11	17.1	17.0	0.14	14.5	16.3	-1.81
Jimmy Butler	70	69	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.15	-5	-4	-1	16.2	20.2	-4.06	15.4	14.1	1.26
Kirk Hinrich	35	35	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.08	-8	-1	-7	17.7	16.7	0.93	16.0	14.5	1.57
Nate Robinson	63	61	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.13	-7	-2	-5	16.8	17.8	-1.04	14.4	16.5	-2.07
Richard Hamilton	28	27	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	0.02	-13	4	-17	19.2	16.1	3.09	14.4	15.4	-1.02
Nazr Mohammed	81	80	-0.41	-0.10	-0.31	-0.26	-5	-4	-1	16.9	19.1	-2.25	15.0	15.7	-0.65
Luol Deng	62	60	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.19	-8	-1	-7	17.6	15.9	1.68	15.4	14.4	1.04

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Quincy Acy	63	67	0.75	-0.25	1.00	0.14	21	-12	33	14.9	15.6	-0.70	17.4	16.1	1.35
Kyle Lowry	66	68	0.58	-0.08	0.66	0.23	12	-3	15	15.1	15.0	0.11	16.9	17.6	-0.66
Amir Johnson	74	75	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.23	10	-1	11	15.0	15.5	-0.55	16.9	18.0	-1.09
DeMar DeRozan	76	77	0.51	-0.01	0.51	0.15	12	-3	15	15.1	15.0	0.09	16.8	18.8	-1.96
Rudy Gay	78	78	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.24	2	7	-5	15.4	13.0	2.37	16.4	21.6	-5.19
Alan Anderson	24	25	0.19	0.31	-0.11	0.08	4	5	-1	14.1	15.4	-1.36	20.1	15.9	4.20
John Lucas III	23	22	-0.08	0.58	-0.66	0.01	-3	12	-15	15.0	15.1	-0.11	17.6	16.9	0.66
Aaron Gray	41	38	-0.27	0.77	-1.04	0.11	-13	22	-35	15.6	14.7	0.89	16.8	17.3	-0.43

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.43,0.47,0.4,0.4,0.31,0.33,0.38,0.48,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.47,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.54,0.58,0.6,0.66,0.7,0.7,0.76,0.74,0.89,0.91,0.89,0.67,0.72,0.81,0.78,0.75,0.62,0.81,0.74,0.85,0.93,0.89,0.97,0.99,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
WAS 105, DAL 112	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.48,0.44,0.38,0.38,0.37,0.39,0.4,0.47,0.49,0.52,0.44,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.46,0.37,0.44,0.48,0.46,0.46,0.59,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.67,0.81,0.79,0.82,0.88,0.84,0.88,0.8,0.79,0.78,0.74,0.88,0.86,0.93,0.86,0.89,0.93,0.93,0.97,0.98,0.99,1	93.5%
NYK 87, CHA 104	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.5,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.48,0.46,0.4,0.49,0.55,0.6,0.56,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.58,0.63,0.61,0.7,0.81,0.87,0.88,0.86,0.86,0.75,0.68,0.74,0.78,0.75,0.8,0.85,0.83,0.88,0.93,0.97,1,1,1,1	93.2%
PHI 85, LAL 96	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.51,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.45,0.4,0.47,0.46,0.52,0.47,0.46,0.52,0.51,0.56,0.63,0.66,0.63,0.73,0.73,0.7,0.68,0.75,0.84,0.77,0.84,0.72,0.78,0.81,0.79,0.58,0.68,0.83,0.85,0.83,0.92,0.95,1,1,1	93.2%