NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

New York Knicks	102		Excitement	6.5 [489]		MVP	Carmelo Anthony (NYK): +55.7%
Miami Heat	90		Comeback	2.8 [499]		LVP	Norris Cole (MIA): -21.4%

New York Knicks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Carmelo Anthony	0.56	0,0,0.02,0.05,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.19,0.24,0.21,0.24,0.26,0.24,0.24,0.28,0.35,0.35,0.41,0.41,0.45,0.45,0.43,0.43,0.47,0.44,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.47,0.57,0.56,0.56,0.56	0.42	0.15	0.02	26	83%	0.56	0	0.00	8	87%	0.04
Steve Novak	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.02	0.06	-0.00	2	60%	0.09	0	0.00	1	0%	0.00
Kenyon Martin	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.01	0.07	-0.00	7	56%	0.12	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.02
Iman Shumpert	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.00	0.00	5	90%	0.10	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Chris Copeland	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.00	-0.00	-0.02	2	60%	0.05	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.00
Pablo Prigioni	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	150%	0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
James White	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Raymond Felton	-0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.06	0.03	-0.02	9	50%	0.11	4	-0.13	2	100%	0.03
Jason Kidd	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tyson Chandler	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.10	-0.06	-0.02	2	17%	-0.04	3	-0.10	2	50%	-0.01
J.R. Smith	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.1,-0.1,-0.15,-0.15,-0.16,-0.15,-0.15	-0.06	-0.07	0.02	15	41%	-0.11	2	-0.04	4	50%	-0.02

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Bosh	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.22,0.22,0.33,0.38,0.33,0.33,0.26,0.24,0.24,0.24	0.24	0.11	0.10	-0.03	13	64%	0.31	2	-0.07	10	100%	0.08
Ray Allen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.09	0.09	-0.00	7	84%	0.23	2	-0.04	5	100%	0.03
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.06	0.02	0.00	4	80%	0.08	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Mike Miller	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.13,0.15,0.12,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.08	-0.02	0.00	12	75%	0.15	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Chris Andersen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	0.00	3	50%	-0.02	0	0.00	6	33%	-0.10
James Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shane Battier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.05	-0.06	-0.00	5	42%	-0.01	2	-0.10	2	100%	0.05
Rashard Lewis	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.09	-0.03	-0.01	2	0%	-0.02	3	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Norris Cole	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21	-0.21	-0.10	-0.12	-0.01	12	54%	0.01	7	-0.23	2	50%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.1	3.4	31.6	19.4	29.0	1.8	35.3	146.4
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

NYK +34.7%

MIA -16.1%

NYK +0.5%

NYK +23.5%

NYK +7.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	NYK	MIA	NBA	NYK	MIA	NBA
this game	18.5	15.6	15.4	121.4	105.9	104.1
season	16.2	15.7		107.9	110.2
opponent	15.9	15.5		102.4	103.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
NYK	17.3	17.9	19.3	19.6	18.5
MIA	15.5	16.4	15.0	15.7	15.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

New York Knicks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Raymond Felton	65	68	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.08	15	-3	18	19.0	16.5	2.57	15.9	14.6	1.24
Carmelo Anthony	72	72	0.48	0.02	0.47	0.04	15	-3	18	18.2	19.8	-1.60	15.0	19.2	-4.24
Jason Kidd	46	46	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.20	9	3	6	18.5	18.4	0.18	16.0	15.3	0.70
Tyson Chandler	43	43	0.43	0.07	0.35	0.04	13	-1	14	18.6	18.4	0.19	15.1	16.2	-1.05
J.R. Smith	52	52	0.37	0.13	0.25	0.05	11	1	10	18.4	18.6	-0.16	15.9	15.2	0.74
Iman Shumpert	40	41	0.19	0.31	-0.12	-0.01	7	5	2	18.5	18.5	0.02	15.1	16.1	-0.99
Kenyon Martin	41	42	0.07	0.43	-0.35	0.10	-1	13	-14	18.4	18.6	-0.19	16.2	15.1	1.05
Steve Novak	24	23	0.07	0.43	-0.36	0.13	-2	14	-16	17.5	18.9	-1.41	15.8	15.6	0.26
Chris Copeland	12	13	0.01	0.49	-0.49	0.10	-3	15	-18	19.8	18.2	1.60	19.2	15.0	4.24
Pablo Prigioni	25	25	-0.11	0.61	-0.72	0.01	-4	16	-20	17.9	18.7	-0.83	14.4	16.1	-1.69

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
James Jones	19	19	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.11	1	-13	14	15.5	15.7	-0.21	17.6	18.7	-1.14
Chris Andersen	17	17	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.09	-3	-9	6	15.5	15.7	-0.13	17.7	18.7	-0.95
Chris Bosh	68	67	-0.21	-0.29	0.09	-0.09	-4	-8	4	15.7	15.2	0.57	19.2	15.7	3.46
Udonis Haslem	38	37	-0.22	-0.28	0.05	0.04	-9	-3	-6	15.3	15.9	-0.58	18.2	18.7	-0.44
Rashard Lewis	50	49	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	0.07	-11	-1	-10	14.9	16.7	-1.83	18.4	18.5	-0.09
Mike Miller	63	65	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.13	-6	-6	0	15.6	15.6	-0.00	18.6	18.1	0.53
Shane Battier	49	49	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	-0.17	-5	-7	2	15.9	15.3	0.62	18.2	18.9	-0.67
Ray Allen	46	45	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.18	-7	-5	-2	16.0	15.2	0.75	18.5	18.4	0.05
Norris Cole	75	72	-0.55	0.05	-0.61	-0.09	-16	4	-20	15.9	13.8	2.08	18.4	18.6	-0.14

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.43,0.4,0.37,0.42,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.38,0.36,0.38,0.46,0.38,0.4,0.51,0.58,0.63,0.58,0.51,0.54,0.61,0.58,0.61,0.73,0.71,0.63,0.64,0.58,0.55,0.48,0.38,0.44,0.52,0.48,0.56,0.42,0.38,0.25,0.33,0.32,0.3,0.41,0.33,0.25,0.04,0.01,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 95, DET 90	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.44,0.37,0.36,0.37,0.37,0.36,0.4,0.4,0.44,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.56,0.59,0.52,0.59,0.64,0.59,0.54,0.67,0.63,0.6,0.55,0.45,0.52,0.52,0.45,0.48,0.63,0.56,0.45,0.3,0.26,0.28,0.2,0.27,0.36,0.54,0.27,0.1,0.04,0.06,0.02,0	92.5%
OKC 97, NOH 92	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.45,0.48,0.53,0.47,0.45,0.43,0.41,0.38,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.56,0.65,0.56,0.59,0.67,0.56,0.64,0.7,0.68,0.69,0.72,0.61,0.48,0.45,0.41,0.48,0.56,0.48,0.44,0.38,0.3,0.38,0.2,0.27,0.36,0.34,0.4,0.31,0.15,0.15,0.09,0	92.5%
IND 95, CHI 90	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.47,0.42,0.4,0.45,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.38,0.48,0.47,0.42,0.47,0.51,0.56,0.52,0.56,0.54,0.64,0.59,0.64,0.78,0.76,0.66,0.7,0.55,0.67,0.65,0.59,0.62,0.59,0.48,0.56,0.46,0.34,0.29,0.38,0.37,0.32,0.24,0.23,0.11,0.22,0.09,0.08,0	92.1%