NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	95		Excitement	6.8 [436]		MVP	Will Bynum (DET): +33.5%
Detroit Pistons	90		Comeback	2.5 [625]		LVP	Ben Gordon (DET): -43.5%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dirk Nowitzki	0.18	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.18	-0.01	0.17	-0.03	27	44%	0.20	1	-0.01	3	100%	0.03
Rodrigue Beaubois	0.17	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.16	0.04	0.03	6	117%	0.17	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shawn Marion	0.05	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.00	0.04	-0.00	11	46%	0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Jason Kidd	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.01	0.04	-0.00	8	62%	0.10	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Kris Humphries	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.02	0.03	-0.01	6	33%	0.02	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.04
Drew Gooden	0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.04	-0.02	0.00	8	58%	0.04	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.01
Jose Juan Barea	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0	-0.00	0.01	-0.00	6	50%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Quinton Ross	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.01	0.00	3	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Terry	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.04	0.02	0.00	7	41%	0.02	1	-0.03	8	75%	-0.01

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Will Bynum	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.19,0.23,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.25,0.27,0.28,0.34	0.34	0.20	0.14	0.00	16	75%	0.34	0	0.00	4	100%	0.04
Ben Wallace	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.04	0.05	0.01	5	75%	0.11	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Rodney Stuckey	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.19,0.19,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.07	-0.02	0.01	20	65%	0.19	5	-0.14	3	100%	0.02
Kwame Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	0.02	0.00	2	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Maxiell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	3	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jonas Jerebko	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	0.01	3	33%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Austin Daye	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	2	50%	-0.00	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Charlie Villanueva	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.16,-0.16,-0.19,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.08	-0.10	-0.01	16	38%	-0.07	2	-0.09	2	50%	-0.02
Ben Gordon	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.19,-0.19,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.29,-0.29,-0.29,-0.29,-0.29,-0.35,-0.35,-0.35,-0.38,-0.38,-0.4,-0.4,-0.44	-0.44	-0.31	-0.13	-0.01	16	13%	-0.32	4	-0.12	6	50%	-0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.8	2.5	28.9	16.8	22.5	2.6	34.5	134.5
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +29.9%

DAL +9.8%

DET -6.9%

DAL +22.3%

DET -5.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	DET	NBA	DAL	DET	NBA
this game	15.3	17.6	15.3	109.2	102.3	106.0
season	15.2	16.8		107.2	104.0
opponent	15.2	15.5		109.8	104.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	13.4	16.5	15.5	16.0	15.3
DET	18.5	18.7	18.8	14.7	17.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Drew Gooden	67	68	0.67	-0.17	0.85	0.26	14	-9	23	14.7	17.4	-2.73	18.0	16.0	1.95
Jason Kidd	68	67	0.63	-0.13	0.76	0.22	14	-9	23	14.4	18.9	-4.54	17.9	16.6	1.29
Shawn Marion	55	54	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.07	15	-10	25	14.6	16.7	-2.12	18.4	16.3	2.11
Dirk Nowitzki	70	71	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.21	8	-3	11	15.2	16.1	-0.96	17.6	17.4	0.18
Rodrigue Beaubois	36	36	0.26	0.24	0.02	-0.12	13	-8	21	13.6	16.6	-3.05	18.7	16.7	2.02
Jason Terry	52	53	0.24	0.26	-0.03	0.47	-8	13	-21	15.9	14.6	1.29	16.2	19.7	-3.49
Jose Juan Barea	37	40	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.37	-7	12	-19	17.1	14.1	3.02	16.7	18.3	-1.57
Kris Humphries	24	25	-0.16	0.66	-0.82	0.16	-11	16	-27	17.4	14.6	2.80	16.7	17.9	-1.17
Quinton Ross	26	26	-0.26	0.76	-1.01	0.13	-13	18	-31	18.8	13.9	4.94	17.1	17.7	-0.63

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kwame Brown	25	23	-0.05	-0.45	0.39	-0.17	4	-9	13	17.8	17.5	0.28	16.8	14.8	1.95
Jason Maxiell	25	23	-0.05	-0.45	0.39	-0.17	4	-9	13	17.8	17.5	0.28	16.8	14.8	1.95
Austin Daye	19	18	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.18	4	-9	13	15.5	18.1	-2.59	18.5	14.5	3.98
Rodney Stuckey	71	73	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.09	-4	-1	-3	19.0	11.7	7.25	15.2	16.2	-1.04
Will Bynum	53	52	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	-0.42	7	-12	19	16.4	19.3	-2.87	16.3	13.9	2.44
Jonas Jerebko	43	42	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	-0.11	-9	4	-13	18.1	17.0	1.05	14.5	16.2	-1.68
Ben Wallace	63	64	-0.45	-0.05	-0.39	-0.18	-9	4	-13	17.5	17.8	-0.28	14.8	16.8	-1.95
Charlie Villanueva	63	64	-0.45	-0.05	-0.39	-0.18	-9	4	-13	17.5	17.8	-0.28	14.8	16.8	-1.95
Ben Gordon	78	76	-0.64	0.14	-0.78	-0.26	-13	8	-21	17.3	19.9	-2.64	14.6	20.7	-6.16

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.44,0.37,0.36,0.37,0.37,0.36,0.4,0.4,0.44,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.56,0.59,0.52,0.59,0.64,0.59,0.54,0.67,0.63,0.6,0.55,0.45,0.52,0.52,0.45,0.48,0.63,0.56,0.45,0.3,0.26,0.28,0.2,0.27,0.36,0.54,0.27,0.1,0.04,0.06,0.02,0
Game		Similarity Score
NYK 102, MIA 90	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.43,0.4,0.37,0.42,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.38,0.36,0.38,0.46,0.38,0.4,0.51,0.58,0.63,0.58,0.51,0.54,0.61,0.58,0.61,0.73,0.71,0.63,0.64,0.58,0.55,0.48,0.38,0.44,0.52,0.48,0.56,0.42,0.38,0.25,0.33,0.32,0.3,0.41,0.33,0.25,0.04,0.01,0,0	92.5%
UTA 83, CHI 81	0.5,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.5,0.47,0.48,0.41,0.39,0.37,0.4,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.56,0.55,0.54,0.55,0.56,0.58,0.61,0.56,0.67,0.61,0.67,0.6,0.63,0.55,0.53,0.58,0.45,0.38,0.44,0.44,0.4,0.29,0.34,0.34,0.25,0.17,0.27,0.31,0.35,0.27,0.14,0.11,0.06,0.16,0	92.4%
UTA 96, MEM 88	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.41,0.35,0.34,0.36,0.44,0.47,0.51,0.44,0.4,0.47,0.42,0.45,0.47,0.44,0.53,0.56,0.56,0.58,0.54,0.59,0.54,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.48,0.55,0.62,0.62,0.48,0.48,0.36,0.3,0.3,0.18,0.24,0.27,0.36,0.33,0.22,0.11,0.04,0.03,0,0	92.4%