NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	88		Excitement	8.3 [216]		MVP	Chris Bosh (MIA): +57.0%
San Antonio Spurs	86		Comeback	12.5 [66]		LVP	Rashard Lewis (MIA): -17.7%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Bosh	0.57	0,0,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.07,0.07,0.07,-0.01,-0.01,0.57	0.12	0.47	0.02	15	72%	0.63	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.02
Mike Miller	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.10	0.05	-0.01	8	75%	0.16	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Andersen	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	-0.00	0.06	0.00	1	67%	0.09	1	-0.03	4	50%	-0.01
Ray Allen	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.02	0.04	-0.01	12	58%	0.16	4	-0.13	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.03	-0.01	0.01	7	57%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shane Battier	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0	0.03	-0.03	0.00	5	60%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Jones	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joel Anthony	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	0.00	0	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Norris Cole	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.2,-0.09	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	12	42%	0.09	2	-0.19	7	71%	-0.01
Rashard Lewis	-0.18	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.07	-0.12	-0.01	11	32%	-0.07	1	-0.11	0	0%	0.00

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kawhi Leonard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.08	0.04	-0.02	13	65%	0.16	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Stephen Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.05	0.02	-0.00	8	69%	0.10	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.09,-0.01,0.11,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.05	0.02	15	52%	0.09	2	-0.05	3	33%	-0.03
Nando De Colo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	150%	0.04	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Boris Diaw	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	2	50%	0.02	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Danny Green	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.08,0.03,0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	14	39%	-0.04	1	-0.01	3	33%	-0.03
Gary Neal	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	8	31%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tiago Splitter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	4	50%	-0.00	2	-0.06	6	50%	-0.05
Tony Parker	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.08,0.01,0.01,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	14	37%	-0.04	1	-0.04	4	100%	0.05
Matt Bonner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.02	-0.09	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.11	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.6	1.8	28.0	15.5	22.6	2.6	32.0	125.0
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +64.3%

MIA +16.4%

SAS -44.6%

MIA +8.4%

MIA +5.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	SAS	NBA	MIA	SAS	NBA
this game	16.1	16.6	15.4	100.0	97.7	104.1
season	15.7	15.2		110.2	106.4
opponent	15.1	15.9		99.5	102.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	17.9	16.2	14.8	15.5	16.1
SAS	16.4	16.5	15.8	18.0	16.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Udonis Haslem	38	38	1.12	-0.62	1.75	0.71	14	-12	26	15.9	16.2	-0.23	17.0	16.4	0.62
Norris Cole	78	79	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.41	6	-4	10	16.3	14.4	1.89	16.5	17.8	-1.26
Chris Bosh	67	67	0.45	0.05	0.41	0.31	5	-3	8	16.0	16.3	-0.33	17.3	14.7	2.60
Mike Miller	46	47	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.03	7	-5	12	15.8	16.4	-0.58	16.7	16.6	0.16
James Jones	11	10	0.13	0.37	-0.25	0.07	2	0	2	14.5	16.3	-1.75	15.9	16.7	-0.84
Shane Battier	52	50	0.07	0.43	-0.37	0.51	-15	17	-32	15.9	16.3	-0.38	15.8	17.8	-2.06
Chris Andersen	32	33	0.05	0.45	-0.39	0.14	-3	5	-8	15.6	16.4	-0.76	17.0	16.4	0.56
Ray Allen	57	56	0.04	0.46	-0.42	0.48	-15	17	-32	16.3	15.7	0.62	16.0	17.7	-1.68
Joel Anthony	6	6	-0.02	0.52	-0.53	-0.02	0	2	-2	16.8	16.0	0.81	18.3	16.5	1.81
Rashard Lewis	53	54	-0.17	0.67	-0.83	-0.43	9	-7	16	16.6	15.2	1.41	16.9	16.2	0.77

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Matt Bonner	15	14	0.49	-0.99	1.48	0.34	5	-7	12	17.3	16.5	0.75	14.9	16.3	-1.37
Nando De Colo	19	20	0.08	-0.58	0.66	-0.13	7	-9	16	15.5	17.0	-1.50	16.9	15.8	1.06
Gary Neal	34	34	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.14	3	-5	8	16.5	16.7	-0.19	16.1	16.1	0.06
Boris Diaw	34	33	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	-0.21	3	-5	8	16.8	16.6	0.24	16.6	15.8	0.84
Stephen Jackson	30	28	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.09	-3	1	-4	15.9	17.0	-1.08	14.7	16.7	-2.05
Kawhi Leonard	65	68	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.36	2	-4	6	17.3	14.8	2.53	16.6	14.4	2.11
Danny Green	57	58	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.33	-2	0	-2	16.6	16.8	-0.25	16.2	15.9	0.27
Tim Duncan	64	64	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.35	-3	1	-4	16.7	16.4	0.38	16.3	15.5	0.74
Tony Parker	69	68	-0.58	0.08	-0.66	-0.32	-9	7	-16	17.0	15.5	1.50	15.8	16.9	-1.06
Tiago Splitter	53	53	-1.01	0.51	-1.53	-0.63	-13	11	-24	16.0	17.6	-1.58	15.8	16.5	-0.67

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.44,0.43,0.43,0.42,0.39,0.4,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.51,0.56,0.54,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.63,0.59,0.64,0.61,0.58,0.69,0.7,0.63,0.62,0.66,0.64,0.55,0.48,0.42,0.41,0.31,0.27,0.37,0.32,0.22,0.19,0.21,0.18,0.27,0.26,0.16,0.4,0.39,0.46,0.55,0.82,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAC 118, PHX 117	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.47,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.49,0.49,0.44,0.57,0.62,0.6,0.59,0.69,0.63,0.69,0.68,0.69,0.64,0.69,0.59,0.63,0.73,0.63,0.58,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.45,0.44,0.37,0.19,0.18,0.19,0.13,0.09,0.05,0.09,0.21,0.2,0.22,0.31,0.54,0.45,0.83,0	91.2%
MIN 110, UTA 108	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.4,0.36,0.37,0.41,0.53,0.57,0.6,0.55,0.58,0.57,0.55,0.55,0.62,0.71,0.61,0.58,0.61,0.56,0.56,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.6,0.55,0.61,0.61,0.54,0.42,0.48,0.38,0.38,0.29,0.4,0.26,0.19,0.18,0.24,0.19,0.26,0.24,0.47,0.47,0.57,0.55,0.42,0	90.6%
IND 78, MIA 75	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.47,0.4,0.41,0.39,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.6,0.56,0.58,0.62,0.67,0.7,0.7,0.68,0.66,0.71,0.61,0.51,0.63,0.69,0.66,0.7,0.64,0.64,0.52,0.41,0.31,0.27,0.23,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.26,0.14,0.23,0.26,0.24,0.28,0.53,0.36,0.45,0.43,0	90.4%